Critical success factors for risk management systems

Despite the existence of extensive literature regarding risk management, there still seems to be lack of knowledge in the identification of critical success factors (CSFs) in this area. In this research, grounded theory is implemented to identify CSFs in risk management systems (RMS). Factor analysis and one‐sample t‐tests are then used to refine and rank the CSFs on the basis of the results of a survey which has been conducted among risk management practitioners in various types of Swedish corporations. CSFs are defined from three different perspectives: (1) the factors that have influence on the inclination and readiness of a corporation for implementing RMS; (2) The factors that are important during the design and implementation of RMS in a corporation and can significantly affect the success of RMS design and implementation; and (3) the factors that are crucially important to successfully run, maintain, and administrate RMS after the closure of the project of RMS design and implementation. A case study of a largely successful RMS is presented and discussed in terms of these key factors. This systematic approach toward understanding the taxonomy of the success dimension in RMS is important for re‐enforcing effective risk management practices.     

Spatial Linkages in Returns and Volatilities among U.S. Regional Housing Markets

This article investigates spatial linkages in returns, idiosyncratic risks and volatilities across 19 U.S. regional housing markets. Using Case & Shiller housing price indices from 1995 through 2009, we find that interconnections across markets can be “wider” and “stronger” than would normally be expected. They are “wider” because, in addition to geographic closeness, economic proximity is also an important source of influence; they are “stronger” because of the significant contagion effects during the 2007–2009 subprime and financial crises. The increased comovement and interdependence, especially among more geographically diverse regions with similar economic conditions, may help explain the failure of geographic portfolio diversification strategies.     

On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks

This paper shows that news shocks amplify macroeconomic volatility in any purely forward-looking model, whereas results are ambiguous when including a backward-looking component. We also investigate numerically the volatility effects of news shocks within the Smets and Wouters (2003) model.     

Voting for Redistribution under Desert‐Sensitive Altruism*

We endow individuals who differ in skills and tastes for working, with altruistic preferences for redistribution in a voting model where a unidimensional redistributive parameter is chosen by majority voting in a direct democracy. When altruistic preferences are desert‐sensitive (i.e., when there is a reluctance to redistribute from the hard‐working to the lazy), we show that lower levels of redistribution emerge in political equilibrium. We provide empirical evidence that preferences for redistribution are not purely selfish, and that desert‐sensitive motivations play a significant role. We estimate that preferences for redistribution are significantly more desert‐sensitive in the US than in Europe.     

Long- versus medium-run identification in fractionally integrated VAR models

We state that long-run restrictions that identify structural shocks in VAR models with unit roots lose their original interpretation if the fractional integration order of the affected variable is below one. For such fractionally integrated models we consider a medium-run approach that employs restrictions on variance contributions over finite horizons. We show for alternative identification schemes that letting the horizon tend to infinity is equivalent to imposing the restriction of Blanchard and Quah (1989) introduced for the unit-root case.     

An integrated scenario analysis for the metal coating sector in Europe

Although new paint products and technologies have been developed, the sector of paint application still contributes substantially to total volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Recent environmental legislation, especially the EU Solvent Emission Directive 1999/13/EC and its transposition into national law, coming into force in 2007, will have an important influence on the sector structure and the associated supply chain, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This paper summarises a comprehensive scenario analysis to explore possible future trajectories for the sector. The main focus is on paint application activities, considering in particular the consequences of new environmentally friendly products and technologies which can be used by SMEs. Four different scenarios representing possible future states of the sector are evaluated, taking into account environmental, technical and socio-economic aspects along the associated supply chain and life cycle. The scenarios allow the formulation of recommendations and guidelines for policy makers and industries. This example confirms that interdisciplinary scenario analysis is a suitable approach to investigate possible future development of an industrial sector.     

Law enforcement and transition

We present a simple model to analyze law enforcement problems in transition economies. Law enforcement implies coordination problems and multiplicity of equilibria due to a law abidance and a fiscal externality. We analyze two institutional mechanisms for solving the coordination problem. A first mechanism, which we call “dualism”, follows the scenario of Chinese transition where the government keeps direct control over economic resources and where a liberalized non-state sector follows market rules. The second mechanism we put forward is accession to the European Union. We show that accession to the European Union, even without external borrowing, provides a mechanism to eliminate the “bad” equilibrium, provided the “accessing” country is small enough relative to the European Union. Interestingly, we show that accession without conditionality is better than with conditionality because conditionality creates a coordination problem of its own that partly annihilates the positive effects of expected accession.     

All-pay war

We study a model of conflicts and wars in which the outcome is uncertain not because of luck on the battlefield as in standard models, but because countries lack information about their opponent. In this model expected resource levels and production and military technologies are common knowledge, but realized resource levels are private information. Each country decides how to allocate its resources to production and warfare. The country with the stronger military wins and receives aggregate production. In equilibrium both comparative and absolute advantages matter: a larger resource share is allocated to warfare by the country with a comparative advantage in warfare at relatively low realized resource levels, and by the country with an absolute disadvantage in warfare at relatively high realized resource levels. From an ex-ante perspective the country with a comparative advantage in warfare is more likely to win the war unless its military potential is much lower.     

The case for freedom revisited

I argue that the case for freedom is about either knowledge or incentives. Freedom optimises the production and use of knowledge, and gives people the right incentives. I trace the history of these arguments. Knowledge‐based justifications can be found in the writings of Adam Smith, Jeremy Bentham, Wilhelm von Humboldt, J. S. Mill, Friedrich von Hayek, and Karl Popper. Incentive‐based arguments are due to Thomas Aquinas, Adam Smith, and James Mill. I then go on to query the extent to which classical freedom is compatible with other aims such as efficiency, enforcement of contracts, freedom of choice, political participation, and the socialist concept of freedom. Finally, I reject natural selection as a justification of freedom or of the right of property.