Ist die Kapitalismuskritik berechtigt?

Die Kapitalismuskritik des SPD-Vorsitzenden Franz Müntefering hat in Deutschland eine heftige Debatte über die marktwirtschaftliche Wirtschaftsordnung ausgelöst. Werden mit der Kapitalismuskritik tatsächliche Fehlentwicklungen des Wirtschaftssystems angesprochen oder ist sie als Wahlkampfgetöse einzuordnen?     

FORECASTING CURRENCY CRISES: WHICH METHODS SIGNALED THE SOUTH AFRICAN CRISIS OF JUNE 2006?

In this paper we test the ability of three of the most popular methods to forecast South African currency crises with a special emphasis on their out‐of‐sample performance. We choose the latest crisis of June 2006 to conduct an out‐of‐sample experiment. The results show that the signals approach was not able to forecast the out‐of‐sample crisis correctly; the probit approach was able to predict the crisis but only with models, that were based on raw data. The Markov‐regime‐switching approach predicts the out‐of‐sample crisis well. However, the results are not straightforward. In‐sample, the probit models performed remarkably well and were also able to detect, at least to some extent, out‐of‐sample currency crises before their occurrence. The recommendation is to not restrict the forecasting to only one approach.     

International Sister-Cities: Bridging the Global-Local Divide

With the demise of the sharp urban-rural divide as a framework for urban analyses, debates have arisen regarding the utility of the city as a theoretically significant construct. Recently however, the growing emphasis on globalization has brought the analysis of global cities into sharp focus. The countervailing trend emphasizes the significance of "the local." International sister-cities provide a site of analysis which illustrates the global-local interface and yet delves deeper. Initially conceived as a post-war means of developing friendships and cultural ties, sister-cities were based on similarities such as name or economic function. More recently, greater recognition has been given to the economic foundations and benefits of these connections. Providing an extension to an integrated approach to the study of sister-cities based on the multifold relationship between culture and commerce, this paper adds a further dimension by focusing on simultaneously operating multi-level entrepreneurial partnerships necessary to sustain active sister-city relationships. Drawing on New Zealand examples of twinning arrangements, it is demonstrated that the emergence and development of embedded partnership ties is vital to deriving sustainable economic and social benefits. While the global outreach of the sister-cities phenomenon appears to transcend the geographic confines of cities, strong locality considerations and local activism nevertheless predominate. A novel feature of this paper is the conceptualization of a hybrid form of entrepreneurialism, "municipal-community entrepreneurship," which is argued as a valuable facilitator of the economic and social vibrancy of cities. to the two cities, it is broadening out to include cultural and work exchanges.     

MEASUREMENT OF TOTAL FACTOR INPUT, TECHNICAL CHANGE AND OUTPUT BY INDUSTRY IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY 1958–1968

This paper deals with some results of an extended investigation which was carried out by the German Institute of Economic Research, Berlin, and the Ifo-Institute, Munich, and financed by the Stiftung Volkswagenwerk. For 29 sectors of manufacturing Cobb-Douglas production functions have been calculated, based on quarterly figures 1958–1968 of value added, input of hours worked, input of utilized capital stock (net of scrappage), and of potential value added, potential labor input and total capital stock. The income distribution is used as production elasticities. For each of the 29 sectors 12 time series of quarterly indices of total factor input and technical change have been computed, using utilized data (variation 1-6) and capacity data (variation 7-12). Two different time series of α are used, taking quarterly interpolated data (variation 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) and the geometric mean 1958–1968 (variation 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12). Moreover three different parameters of homogeneity are introduced, taking r= 1 (variation 1, 2, 7, 8), r= 1.1 (variation 3, 4, 9, 10) and r= 1.25 (variation 5, 6, 11, 12). Seven of the 29 sectors show a very high sensitivity of the rate of technical change due to the assumed r, six sectors a rather high sensitivity. Ten of the 29 sectors show a rather small sensitivity of technical change due to the assumed r, six sectors a very small or even negative sensitivity, i.e. an increasing r creates an increasing technical change. These results can be explained by taking account of the fact that total factor input in many branches increased very slowly or even decreased (labor input alone decreased in nearly all branches). A hierarchy of technical change has been calculated; this hierarchy is difficult to explain, because fast growing industries as well as industries with a small or a negative growth rate of output rank in both the leading and the last group of technical change. Very high rates of output result in high rates of technical change (chemicals, mineral oil refining, plastics manufactures), but some industries with a rather small growth of output (shipbuilding, fine ceramics, steel drawing, and cold rolling mills) show a high rate of technical change too.     

Auto-static for the people: risk-minimizing hedges of barrier options

We present and test a method for computing risk-minimizing static hedge strategies. The method is straightforward, yet flexible with respect to the type of contingent claim being hedged, the underlying asset dynamics, and the choice of risk-measure and hedge instruments. Extensive numerical comparisons for barrier options in a model with stochastic volatility and jumps show that the resulting hedges outperform previous suggestions in the literature. We also demonstrate that the risk-minimizing static hedges work in an infinite intensity Levy-driven model, and a number of controlled experiments illustrate that hedge performance is robust to model risk.     

Income Inequality and Income Mobility in the Scandinavian Countries Compared to the United States

This paper compares income inequality and income mobility in the Scandinavian countries and the United States during 1980–90. The results suggest that inequality is greater in the United States than in the Scandinavian countries and that this inequality ranking of countries remains unchanged when the accounting period of income is extended from one to eleven years. The pattern of mobility turns out to be remarkably similar, in the sense that the proportionate reduction in inequality from extending the accounting period of income is much the same. But we do find evidence of greater dispersion of first differences of relative earnings and income in the United States. Relative income changes are associated with changes in labor market and marital status in all four countries, but the magnitude of such changes are largest in the United States.     

Continuous enough

In this paper we give a global condition on the cost function which is necessary and sufficient for continuity of the corresponding production function. A cost function satisfying this condition is ‘continuous enough’ in the sense discussed by Diewert (1974).