The rest of me

iPhone Siri demonstratively introduced natural language processing. Still a gadget, the idea revived one of the old promises of computers as personal assistants. Does it have the potential of fulfilling the already burgeoning imagination related to this promise? The authors believe that, while still dependent on the evolution of artificial intelligence, the virtual assistant may find support in the already maturing technologies of augmented reality and, more important, in the changing global network with the semantic web, Internet of things and geo-location. Bluntly speaking, its feasibility and acceptability may not even have to wait for the promised IBM computer with human brain capabilities, but rather build on a more friendly interaction with the Google search engine.The article provides a narrative scenario of the deep economic and social transformations and even turbulence that the so called imaginary friend may produce. Not discarding, but creatively integrating some of the archetypes of futuristic literature, the story positions these entities as the foreground of a deep integration of networks, with the added turmoil caused by economic interests that go beyond individuals’ sense-making capacity.This article is one of the follow-ups of the international foresight workshop “Crazy futures” coordinated by Ziauddin Sardar and George Cairns in a small resort on the Danube Delta in July 2011, a workshop organised as part of the project Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education.     

Banking Competition and Capital Ratios

Empirical studies provide evidence that bank capital ratios exceed regulatory requirements. But why do banks maintain capital levels above regulatory requirements? We use data for more than 2,600 banks from 10 European countries to test recent theories suggesting that competition incentivises banks to maintain higher capital ratios. These theories also predict that banks that engage in arm's length lending have lower capital ratios, and that shareholder rights and deposit insurance characteristics affect capital ratios. Consistent with these theories, our evidence robustly indicates that competition increases capital holdings. Banks that lend at arm's length exhibit lower capital ratios, whereas banks in countries with strong shareholder rights operate with higher capital ratios. We also show some evidence that generous deposit protection schemes that exclude non‐deposit creditors are associated with higher capital ratios. Our results have important policy implications. First, while the traditional view suggests imposing restrictions on bank activities in order to restrain competition, our analysis indicates the opposite, even after adjusting the regressions for risk‐taking. Second, weak shareholder rights undermine market forces that would otherwise encourage banks to hold higher capital ratios.     

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE WILLINGNESS OF COMPANIES TO INVEST AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS? EVIDENCE FROM LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES

In this article we investigate the changes in corporate investment dynamics in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Using firm-level data from six Latin American countries from 2002 to 2015, we show that firms are less constrained and have greater ability to invest after the crisis. However, the willingness of firms to invest optimally is reduced. This is supported by strong evidence that during the postcrisis period investment–cash flow sensitivity disappears, investment-q sensitivity increases, and the estimated speeds of adjustment for target investment decrease. Moreover, after the crisis, firms notably increase their efforts to attain optimal cash and leverage levels. Our analysis implies that firms may not always be willing to invest optimally. The willingness to invest optimally appears to be time variant and moves together with the dynamics of cash and leverage policies, albeit in opposite directions.     

The effect of relative performance feedback on individual performance in team settings under group-based incentives*

This study reports the results of an experiment that analyses the behavioural effect of relative performance feedback (RPF) on individual performance when compensation is based on team performance. Specifically, it investigates whether RPF affects individual performance differently when the comparison focuses on other members of that individual’s team (within-group RPF) or on other teams (between-group RPF). We predict a negative effect of within-group RPF on individual performance. We also predict that between-group RPF moderates that negative effect, since it encourages individuals to focus on group goals rather than individual goals. Consistent with our predictions, results show that the negative effect of within-group RPF on individual performance is mitigated by between-group RPF. Our results can help accountants to better understand how the effects of relative performance feedback differ according to the predominant comparison target.     

Perceptions of pre-service teachers on seismic risk and their implications for science education: a comparative study between Spain and Portugal

Abstract

This study investigated the importance given by two groups of pre-service teachers of primary education from Spain and Portugal to seismic risk in a framework of different natural risks, both in personal terms and as future teachers. A questionnaire was used for data collection. Some questions about the seismic phenomenon were also included. The sample groups consisted of 110 students from an institution in Spain and 121 from one in Portugal. Both institutions are in cities affected by the historic Lisbon earthquake of 1755. The results showed that the risk of forest fire was the first choice for classroom study in both cases. The Spanish group was also more focused on the importance of other risks like flood and drought. The Portuguese group showed a greater concern with seismic risk, frequently referring to their own historic earthquake of 1755. A few gaps in knowledge concerning earthquake prediction and comparing seismic risk in different regions of their own countries were also found. In accordance with the results, it is suggested that training courses for primary school teachers should include Disaster Risk Education in Science Education for a better understanding of the impact of various hazards and a greater concern with seismic risk due to its particular features, especially in regions where the seismic pattern is characterized by long seismic cycles with major earthquake episodes.     

The persistence of earnings per share

The persistence of innovations to accounting earnings per share, EPS, has important implications for equity valuation, yet it remains a largely neglected subject. This paper employs various empirical tests in order to measure the persistence of shocks to EPS for the S&P 500 index. Within the I(0)/I(1) paradigm the empirical evidence rejects the I(1) specification, supporting instead a trend-stationary representation. When fractional orders of integration are considered, the results indicate that the detrended series is long memory (d  >  0) and mean reverting (d < 1). The responses decay slowly to zero, albeit 50 quarters after an initial shock the responses remain significantly different from zero. Likewise, the variance ratio evidence suggests that the effect of a shock persists over time spans characteristic of the business cycle.

Location choices under strategic interactions

We explore a fundamental aspect of firms' location choices largely overlooked in the literature: strategic interaction. We formalize the notion that strategic interaction renders collocation less appealing by fostering competition, which erodes firms' profits. Strategic interaction also impacts location choices across time. Specifically, because firms learn by doing in markets, location choices are shaped by two novel effects: entrenchment benefits from entering early in a market and improving capabilities relative to rivals, and opportunity costs from postponing entry to other markets where rivals enter and learn. When learning is local, firms collocate more: rivals are preempted from improving relative capabilities in higher‐value markets. However, when learning is global, firms collocate less: they can transfer capabilities from lower‐value to higher‐value markets, blocking rivals from achieving entrenchment benefits. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Technology roadmapping (TRM) and strategic alignment for an applied research centre: a case study with methodological contributions

Technology roadmapping provides a strategic tool to help companies develop an outside‐in view and challenge their current competitive perspectives. In this paper, the authors describe the roadmapping process, which is aligned, with the research and development (R&D) strategy of an applied research centre. This process is based in an adapted combination of state‐of‐the‐art methodologies, and as a result, the case study shows interesting findings in terms of R&D strategy, technology strategy and roadmapping processes and methodology.     

Implications of firm experiential knowledge and sequential FDI on performance of Japanese subsidiaries in Brazil

A foreign firm investing in a culturally different market usually faces a certain level of uncertainty. This study proposes that as a multinational company accumulates experiential knowledge, it develops more capabilities and know-how and consequently reflects on subsidiary performance. Based on a subsidiary level sample of Japanese firms located in Brazil, the empirical findings of this study demonstrate that the accumulation of both international and local experiential knowledge can positively affect subsidiary performance. Moreover, a firm’s sequential foreign direct investment decision in the local market is a key strategy to achieving a higher level of subsidiary profitability in comparison with a first-time investment firm.

Market power,price discrimination,and allocative efficiency in intermediate‐goods markets

We consider a monopolistic supplier's optimal choice of two‐part tariff contracts when downstream firms are asymmetric. We find that the optimal discriminatory contracts amplify differences in downstream firms' competitiveness. Firms that are larger—either because they are more efficient or because they sell a superior product—obtain a lower wholesale price than their rivals. This increases allocative efficiency by favoring the more productive firms. In contrast, we show that a ban on price discrimination reduces allocative efficiency and can lead to higher wholesale prices for all firms. As a result, consumer surplus, industry profits, and welfare are lower.