The choice at the checkout: Quantifying demand across payment instruments

Dramatic changes have occurred in the U.S. payment system over the past two decades, most notably an explosion in electronic card-based payments. This shift has led to a series of policy debates driven in part by consumers' choice of payment instruments. Using a new nationally representative survey, we transform consumer responses to open-ended questions into product rankings and estimate a characteristics-based rank-order logit model in order to quantify consumer substitution among payment methods. Our estimates are then used to conduct supply-driven and demand-driven counterfactual experiments in order to estimate market share and cost effects. From a counterfactual experiment in which merchants stop accepting credit cards, we predict merchant costs to decline substantially. Because merchants accept credit cards nonetheless, we regard our finding as evidence either that the credit card networks hold market power, or that merchants experience unmeasured intangible benefits from credit card acceptance. We also predict that contactless debit will take market share from cash, checks, and credit, and that the age/cohort effect alone is unlikely to cause debit card use to increase substantially over a 10-year period.     

STATISTICAL UNITS STANDARDS AND CENTRAL REGISTER SYSTEMS: KEYS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC ACCOUNTING

National accountants, model builders and analysts who work with statistical material that has been compiled without the discipline of well-developed unit standards rules and central register controls may be constructing information systems that are basically unsound because of the uncertain nature of their building bricks of economic units.
This paper draws attention to the nature and importance of statistical unit standards and central register systems in the provision of economic statistics for economic accounting, planning and management. These are viewed as essential conceptual and operational tools for compiling economic statistics on an integrated basis and for making progress towards establishing a comprehensive data base with positive links between macro economic analysis and data about individual economic agents. Some of the problems and possibilities for countries who wish to proceed along these lines are discussed, with particular reference to the experience of Australia.     

Technology Foresight for Wiring Up the National Innovation System: Experiences in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand

Since 1990, technology foresight has spread rapidly. We begin by analyzing the reasons for this before examining the specific political background to technology foresight in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. The article analyzes and compares the approaches to foresight in these countries, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. We then propose a new rationale for technology foresight, which centers on its role in “wiring up” and thereby strengthening the national innovation system, before arriving at a number of conclusions.     

Executive Agencies, Performance Targets and External Reporting

Since 1988, the role of Next Steps executive agencies has been crucial in delivering central government services. Agencies were established to improve service delivery, with changes being supported by an increasing focus on quantification. The Government argued that performance measures and targets are vital in supporting management in planning and controlling the operation of an agency, and that they are also important in providing a basis for reporting to those outside its immediate management—an aspect of discharging accountability. This article discusses the connections between targeting and reporting performance in agencies and, through an empirical study of business plans, corporate plans and annual reports, shows the extent of such linkages. The article provides evidence that key targets in planning documents of agencies provide a useful platform for external reporting, although improvements can still be made.