Market timing under multiple economic regimes

This article models the US equity premium as a regime‐switching process where the regimes are dependent on economic variables. To characterise the economic regimes, we employ the dimension reduction technique of a principal components analysis to extract business cycle signals from a set of observed macroeconomic variables. We use these conditioning agents to infer the ex ante economic regime. We then test a dynamic asset allocation strategy, which invests in equity and cash on the basis of the predicted regimes. This timing strategy is shown to outperform a simple buy and hold strategy on a risk‐adjusted basis.     

An exploration of stewardship theory in a Not-for-Profit organisation

The aim of this study is to understand the ability of stewardship theory, as compared with agency theory, to explain motivation of the staff in a Not-for-Profit (NFP) organisation. Agency theory is seen as providing an explanation of motivation in the business sector however we argue that the different cultural and organisational conditions weaken the explanatory power of agency theory in the NFP sector. In pursuing this investigation, we were mindful of Brinberg's (2009) encouragement for a more outward-looking approach to management accounting issues and in particular his call for the use qualitative research methods and to allow practice to inform theory.Interviews were conducted with staff of a NFP organisation to gauge the impact of the introduction of a bonus scheme. The interviews sought to provide answers to three questions: what is the main source of motivation in the organisation? Were tensions created in the organisation by the introduction of the bonus scheme? Was there a change in the culture of the organisation, comprising camaraderie between staff, having fun at work, trust between management and staff, and an attitude of service to clients?Practical implicationsThis finding has important implications for the management of NFPs. To maintain and improve motivation, management needs to look to the goals, or mission, of the organisation – in particular, to see that the goals include care of and service to clients.Originality/valueThe originality and value of this paper stems from the fact that the data was gather in a NFP organisation that had introduced an extrinsic reward scheme.     

The Economic Effect Of Competition Law Enforcement: The Case Of The Netherlands

Summary  In this paper we try to bridge the gap between the outcome ambitions of competition policy in terms of welfare gains and consumer surplus and the longer term effects of competition policy on growth and employment. First of all, an overview is given of the different definitions of welfare. We explain why maximising the consumer surplus is an important part of the mission statement for most competition authorities. In the second part of the paper we estimate the impact of the introduction of the competition law on economic development. The effects of antitrust policies, merger control and energy regulation on the consumer surplus appear substantial. This increase in consumer surplus can be interpreted as a cut in the “market power wedge” which, from a modelling point of view, is comparable to a cut in the tax wedge. A model simulation for the Netherlands shows that the economy responded positively to this increase in the consumer surplus. We find that production has grown by an extra 0.5% and that employment has increased by 0.4% as a result of the enforcement of the Competition Law. The authors are respectively Chief Economist of the NMa and senior advisor at the Office of the Chief Economist of the NMa. This paper is the background paper for the presentation with the same title at the conference “Measuring the Economic Effects of Competition Law Enforcement”, held in The Hague, 17 and 18 October 2007. The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of secukinumab for the treatment of active psoriatic arthritis: a Canadian perspective

Objective: The study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of secukinumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody that selectively neutralizes interleukin (IL)-17A, vs currently licensed biologic treatments in patients with active psoriatic arthritis (PsA) from a Canadian healthcare system perspective.

Methods: A decision analytic semi-Markov model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of secukinumab 150?mg and 300?mg compared to subcutaneous biologics adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab, and ustekinumab, and intravenous biologics infliximab and infliximab biosimilar in biologic-naive and biologic-experienced patients over a lifetime horizon. The response to treatments was evaluated after 12 weeks by PsA Response Criteria (PsARC) response rates. Non-responders or patients discontinuing initial-line of biologic treatment were allowed to switch to subsequent-line biologics. Model input parameters (Psoriasis Area Severity Index [PASI], Health Assessment Questionnaire [HAQ], withdrawal rates, costs, and resource use) were collected from clinical trials, published literature, and other Canadian sources. Benefits were expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). An annual discount rate of 5% was applied to costs and benefits. The robustness of the study findings were evaluated via sensitivity analyses.

Results: Biologic-naive patients treated with secukinumab achieved the highest number of QALYs (8.54) at the lowest cost (CAD 925,387) over a lifetime horizon vs all comparators. Secukinumab dominated all treatments, except for infliximab and its biosimilar, which achieved minimally more QALYs (8.58). However, infliximab and its biosimilar incurred more costs than secukinumab (infliximab: CAD 1,015,437; infliximab biosimilar: CAD 941,004), resulting in higher cost-effectiveness estimates relative to secukinumab. In the biologic-experienced population, secukinumab dominated all treatments as it generated more QALYs (8.89) at lower costs (CAD 954,692). Deterministic sensitivity analyses indicated the results were most sensitive to variation in PsARC response rates, change in HAQ, and utility values in both populations.

Conclusions: Secukinumab is either dominant or cost-effective vs all licensed biologics for the treatment of active PsA in biologic-naive and biologic-experienced populations in Canada.     

FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING REPORTS: A MARKET MODEL OF DISCLOSURE: A REPLY

Walker in his Comment appears to disagree with the explicandum and attempts to prove this with alternative explicans. It is a case of post hoc, ergo propter hoc. The development of a normative model or theory requires the choice of a number of assumptions. These observations or statements are themselves theory laden. Nevertheless deductions drawn from the model are either correct or incorrect according to the laws of logic.     

Party loyalty as habit formation

In most democracies, at least two out of any three individuals vote for the same party in sequential elections. This paper presents a model in which vote‐persistence is partly due to the dependence of the utility on the previous voting decision. This dependence is termed ‘habit formation’. The model and its implications are supported by individual‐level panel data on the presidential elections in the USA in 1972 and 1976. For example, it is found that the voting probability is a function of the lagged choice variable, even when the endogeneity of the lagged variable is accounted for, and that the tendency to vote for different parties in sequential elections decreased with the age of the voter. Furthermore, using structural estimation the effect of habit is estimated, while allowing unobserved differences among respondents. The structural habit parameter implies that the effect of previous votes on the current decision is quite strong. The habit model fits the data better than the traditional ‘party identification’ model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discussion of “The Effect of Accounting Restatements on Earnings Revisions and the Estimated Cost of Capital”

The Hribar and Jenkins study (2004, this issue) investigates the effect of accounting restatements on firms' cost of equity capital. The authors document that the loss of market value associated with restatement announcements is attributable not only to a downward revision in expected future earnings but also to an increase in implied cost of capital. This finding is consistent with the conjecture that restatements lead to increased investors' uncertainty about management credibility and competence, as well as to concerns about overall earnings quality. My discussion evaluates the motivation for the research question, addresses a number of key research design issues, particularly the estimation of implied cost of capital, and offers some suggestions for future research.     

Analyst Coverage and Intangible Assets

This study examines the relation between analysts' incentives to cover firms and the extent of their intangible assets. Because intangible assets typically are unrecognized and estimates of their fair values are not disclosed, absent analyst coverage firms with more intangible assets likely have less informative prices. Accordingly, we expect analysts have greater incentives to cover firms with more intangible assets and, thus, predict they have higher analyst coverage. As predicted, we find that analyst coverage is significantly greater for firms with larger research and development and advertising expenses relative to their industry, and for firms in industries with larger research and development expense. We also predict and find that analyst coverage is increasing in firm size, growth, trading volume, equity issuance, and perceived mispricing, and is decreasing in the size of the firm's analysts' brokerage houses and the effort analysts expend to follow the firm. These findings indicate that analyst coverage depends on private benefits and costs of covering a firm. We also test hypotheses related to analyst effort. We predict and find that analysts expend greater effort to follow firms with more intangible assets, after controlling for other factors associated with analyst effort. Our evidence indicates that intangible assets, most of which are not recognized in firms' financial statements, are associated with greater incentives for analysts to cover such firms, and greater costs of coverage. An open question is whether financial statement recognition of intangible assets could more efficiently provide information about such assets to investors.     

Budgeting in Catholic Parishes: An Exploratory Study

In this paper an aspect of accounting, namely budgeting, has been studied in an organizational context. According to Booth (1993) churches represent 'extreme cases' in which to study the impact of accounting. Following on from Laughlin (1988) Booth considered the sacred and secular divide to be a significant element in the use of accounting by church organizations. The parishes of the Catholic Archdiocese of Melbourne form the context of this study in which evidence is sought for the sacred and secular divide by studying the role of budgeting in the parish. Questions were asked regarding participation in the budgetary process and the development and use of the budget. It was found that there was little consultation or participation in the budgetary process and that the use of the budget was restricted. These findings suggest that the sacred and secular divide operates at the parish level.     

金岸市--创新之城

首先向读者们致以诚挚的问候,欢迎你们光临美丽的女王圣地———澳大利亚。过去的40余年里,金岸市是澳大利亚发展最快的城市之一,我市的人口总量有望在接下来的20年实现翻番。这种快速发展带动了旅游业的超常繁荣和城市建设的进步,继而通过带动多种产业诸如教育、体育、卫生及医药、环保、信息通信、海洋渔业等产业的发展,壮大了我市的经济基础。作为壮大城市发展的一个重要部分,金岸市必须明确其在国内外市场上的定位。我们认真地分析了自己的优势和劣势,审慎地提出了充分发挥地理和资源优势的战略,正如中国正在致力于寻求现在和未来10年经…