Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices

This paper investigates whether the market rewards firms meeting current period earnings expectations, and whether any such reward reflects the implications of meeting expectations in the current period for future earnings or reflects a distinct market premium. We document that abnormal annual returns are significantly greater for firms meeting expectations, controlling for the information in the current year's earnings. We then test whether firms meeting expectations experience higher returns simply because their expected future earnings are also higher. We find firms meeting expectations have significantly higher earnings forecasts and realized earnings than firms that do not. We find that controlling for these higher future earnings, firms meeting expectations in one or two years do not receive a greater valuation than their fundamentals would suggest. We find, however, that the market assigns a higher value to firms that meet expectations consistently, controlling for an estimate of the firm's fundamental value.     

Demographic Factors and Price Distortions in Insurance

Few papers have analyzed the potential linkages between price distortions and the specific demographic and political traits of customers. The existence of price distortions may have adverse and potentially unintended impacts on certain demographic groups, leading to significant public policy concerns. The current study uses census tract data and rating factors to examine age, income, and race demographics in an effort to determine if any subgroups of the population are adversely impacted by the price distortions of property insurance. The results suggest that Hispanics, lower income households, and specific age groups pay relatively more for insurance coverage than comparison groups.     

Preservation or Conversion? Valuation and Evaluation of a Mangrove forest in the Philippines

Mangrove ecosystems are rapidly declining in many parts of the world. This has resulted in the loss of important environmental and economic products and services including forest products, flood mitigation and nursery grounds for fish. The aquaculture industry was the single biggest threat to mangroves in the Philippines until 1981 when conversion of the remaining mangrove stands was prohibited by law. However, the decreasing yield from capture fisheries is putting pressure for the re-examination of this policy. To understand the importance of mangroves, insight is needed into the value of products and services provided is needed. This article compares the costs and benefits of mangrove preservation with those generated by alternative uses such as aquaculture and forestry. Equity and sustainability objectives are taken into account, in addition to economic efficiency and analyzed according to the perspectives of the different types of decision makers involved.     

Choice under restrictions

Nearly every decision a person makes is restricted in some way. While we are painfully aware of some of these restrictions, others go largely undetected. This paper presents a conceptual framework for understanding how restrictions interact with situational and individual characteristics, as well as goals to influence behavior. Implications for overlooked research opportunities in choice modeling are presented and discussed.     

Equilibrium prices in the presence of delegated portfolio management

This paper analyzes the asset pricing implications of commonly used portfolio management contracts linking the compensation of fund managers to the excess return of the managed portfolio over a benchmark portfolio. The contract parameters, the extent of delegation, and equilibrium prices are all determined endogenously within the model we consider. Symmetric (fulcrum) performance fees distort the allocation of managed portfolios in a way that induces a significant and unambiguous positive effect on the prices of the assets included in the benchmark and a negative effect on the Sharpe ratios. Asymmetric performance fees have more complex effects on equilibrium prices and Sharpe ratios, with the signs of these effects fluctuating stochastically over time in response to variations in the funds' excess performance.     

The Incidence of the Land Use Regulatory Tax

Land use regulation has been found to impose a substantial tax on housing within select U.S. metropolitan areas. In this article, we develop hypotheses regarding the incidence of this tax by income class and racial group within these areas. Parcel‐level data from Miami‐Dade County, Florida, are used to test our hypotheses. We find that, while the tax rises with a household's permanent income, this rise is less than proportional, making it a regressive tax. We also find, controlling for household permanent income, that the tax is a higher percentage of the price of homes located in black neighborhoods in comparison to those located in white or Hispanic neighborhoods.     

Market uncertainty,market sentiment,and the post-earnings announcement drift

Post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) which was first identified over 40 years ago seems to be as much alive today as it ever was. Numerous attempts have been made to explain its continued existence. In this paper we provide evidence to support a new explanation: that the PEAD is a reflection of the level of market uncertainty and sentiment that prevails during the post-announcement period. The overriding conclusion from our analysis is that both uncertainty and sentiment play a central role in determining investor behaviour and it is this behaviour that ultimately determines the pricing that is observed in financial markets.     

The stabilisation of the international coffee market

The inherent instability in the international coffee market has long been a major problem for both producers and consumers. Traditionally, attempts have been made to reduce both long-and short-term fluctuations using single policy instruments, such as export quotas. However, an examination of the causes of the two types of variability, and a comparative assessment of the likely success of various types of policy indicates that, although short term instability can be effectively removed by traditional instruments, the more problematic, long-term cyclicality requires more specific, separate consideration.     

Are Incentives the Bricks or the Building?

The efforts of economists to emphasize the importance of incentives as determinants of organizational performance, while successful to some degree, may have left the mistaken impression that "getting the incentives right" is the only task requiring the attention of senior executives when designing corporate organizations. The author identifies the incentive-intensive companies envisioned by economists as "mercenary organizations" (or MOs), or companies whose distinguishing feature is near-complete reliance on financial rewards and controls. Citing the difficulties of devising an effective incentive system that cannot be gamed (which he calls the organizational equivalent of "an anti-gravity machine"), the article questions whether such organizations are likely to yield superior performance.
As an alternative to paying more attention to incentive design, the author suggests devoting more corporate resources to seeking and attracting individuals with low "monitoring costs." After holding up examples of top executives who appear committed to that search, the author posits a "character-rich" organization (CRO) as an alternative to the MO of the economists.
Then, viewing all companies as occupying points on a continuum with the MO and CRO as its poles, the author argues that all companies combine elements of both kinds of organizations. And perhaps most important, the CEOs of many of the most successful large organizations, without minimizing the importance of incentives, pay even greater attention to the search for trustworthy individuals and the creation of a culture of teamwork and accountability.