Bayesian and Frequentist Inference for Ecological Inference: The R×C Case

In this paper we propose Bayesian and frequentist approaches to ecological inference, based on R × C contingency tables, including a covariate. The proposed Bayesian model extends the binomial-beta hierarchical model developed by K ing , R osen and T anner (1999) from the 2×2 case to the R × C case. As in the 2×2 case, the inferential procedure employs Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. As such, the resulting MCMC analysis is rich but computationally intensive. The frequentist approach, based on first moments rather than on the entire likelihood, provides quick inference via nonlinear least-squares, while retaining good frequentist properties. The two approaches are illustrated with simulated data, as well as with real data on voting patterns in Weimar Germany. In the final section of the paper we provide an overview of a range of alternative inferential approaches which trade-off computational intensity for statistical efficiency.     

Is there chronic excess supply of labor?: Designing a statistical test

We devise and implement a statistical test of the hypothesis that the labor market has chronic excess supply. We find that the data reject this hypothesis.     

Fares and Free Riders on the Information Highway

Public policy issues around access to networked information are explored and examined. Long viewed as the quintessential public good, information has evolved into a critically important market commodity in little more than a generation. New technologies and a political climate in which the meaning of universal access to information is no longer commonly understood and in which its importance is no longer taken for granted pose significant challenges for American society. Libraries, as information commons, offer the means of meeting those challenges. Historical, economical, and professional factors that shape the conflict are described and discussed.     

The Role of Pollution Regulation and Litigation in the Development of the U.S. Meatpacking Industry, 1865-1880

Business historians have treated the emergence of large, modern,vertically integrated meatpacking firms in the second half ofthe nineteenth century as the economically rational and inevitableproduct of the industry's search for ways to maximize profitsthrough technological innovation, vertical integration, andthe achievement of economies of scale and scope. This is onlypart of the story, however. Society's efforts to force the industryto abate its environmental pollution through government regulationand private lawsuits also stimulated and shaped these processesof modernization.     

Towards Sustainable and Democratic Urban Transport: Constructivism,Planning and Policy

This paper takes a constructivist technology studies approach to understand the changing shape of transport and mobility, tracing in particular the growing importance of discourses around sustainability and democratic involvement in transport and urban planning as well as in wider public debate. The concept of sociotechnical frames is used to capture the interaction between the technical, social and cultural dimensions of transport and mobility; sociotechnical change comes about when these different elements begin to pull apart from each other. In light of this framework, the paper examines shifts within the sociotechnology of transport and mobility since the late 1980s and draws on a case study of a controversial development dispute in the UK to examine how notions of sustainability and public involvement are constructed within local contexts. The case study highlights especially issues around the relative power to bring about change of different actors within a frame.     

China-Brazil,Both Challenges and Opportunities for the Cooperation

■ Latin America-Brazil trade corridor grows ahead of global development speed ■ From logistics to tax regulations, Sino-Brazilian trade cooperation faces a series of obstacles ■ Sino-Brazilian economic and trade cooperation is far more than simple resources supply     

Growth Management and Land use Controls: The San Francisco Bay Area Experience

Local land use and growth controls have had a substantial negative impact on the San Francisco Bay Area housing market. These regulations have significantly diminished the availability of development opportunities in the region and forced builders to make major changes in the way they do business and costly alterations in their development projects. Both the empirical evidence reviewed and the case studies documented in this paper indicate that building moratoria, growth management systems, and restrictive zoning practices have helped lead to significantly increased house prices in those Bay Area communities in which they are present. The evidence strongly suggests that land use controls as they are currently utilized in the Bay Area provide a poor policy alternative for reconciling important environmental and fiscal considerations with equally important regional and national housing needs.     

The demand and supply for investment goods: does the market clear?

Standard theoretical considerations suggest that the quantity and price of a good are jointly determined by supply and demand. In the literature on physical investment, however, attention has been focused almost exclusively on the demand side. This paper considers the theoretical and statistical problems that arise when the demand and supply sides of the market for investment goods are estimated simultaneously. One of the important problems is dealing with the possibility that the price may not adjust instantaneously to clear the market.The model is estimated using data from post-war Japan. The two most important results that emerge are: 1) The long-run supply curve of investment goods is virtually horizontal; and 2) The market appears to be characterized by equilibrium.