Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

Innovation and the circular economy: A systematic literature review

The circular economy emerged as an alternative model to the linear system, which now appears to be reaching its physical limitations. To transition to a circular economy, companies must not only be aware of but also engage in more sustainable practices. For such a transition, companies must rethink and innovate their business models and the ways they propose value to their clients while simultaneously considering environmental and social facets. This systematic literature review sought to map out from the company perspective the key topics interrelated with innovation and the circular economy, describing the internal and external factors to consider in such transition processes. Key lines of research were identified, and suggestions for future research and for facilitating movement toward a circular economy are provided. This work contributes to deepening the literature by identifying the priority areas concerning the circular economy and encouraging future research that meets international standards of excellence.     

Coordination in a skeptical two-group population

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - This paper explores a situation in which a population split into two groups attempts to achieve the socially efficient outcome of a coordination...     

Stress and turnover intents in international organizations: social support and work–life balance as resources

Abstract

This study investigates whether work opportunities have an impact on stress and the related turnover intentions of employees working in intergovernmental international organizations (IOs). It contextualizes the job resources and demands model within IOs’ specific work conditions. The empirical test is based on original data from a survey administered in four major organizations of the United Nations system. Results demonstrate that social work opportunities and work–life balance are organizational levers reducing stress and willingness to quit for employees who are facing red tape or the stresses of being an expatriate. In this context, the relationships between these work opportunities and turnover intention are partially mediated by stress. Contextualized HR management propositions are made to help organizations coping with these management challenges.     

Sustainability Development and the Quality of Assurance Reports: Empirical Evidence

There is a rising trend among companies to publish their sustainability or corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports. Assurance of these reports is a valuable voluntary tool to provide them with higher credibility. Nonetheless, the quality of assurance reports differs in practice and the objective of this paper is to provide evidence in this new area of research. Indeed, we are pioneers in developing an index to measure the quality of assurance reports. We choose the Spanish setting because it is the worldwide leading country as regards CSR reporting (KPMG, 2011; Sierra et al., 2012). We have found evidence on the determinants for CSR reporting posited by existing literature that have an impact on (a) the decision of companies to publish their CSR reports, (b) the decision to assure the CSR report or not and (c) the decision to hire the assurance services from an auditor or a consultant and the subsequent quality of the assurance report. Last but not least, our results from a sample of 161 CSR assurance reports evidence that assurance reports are of fairly acceptable quality, according to the index proposed. Furthermore, the value of the quality index is significantly higher if the assurance services are provided by an auditor (as opposed to a consultant) and if the CSR reporting company is larger. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

The entrepreneurial motivation in academia: a multidimensional construct

In this paper we propose a model to analyse the motivation of academic entrepreneurs that comprises six dimensions: personal, relating to the entrepreneurial opportunity, to scientific knowledge, to the availability of resources, to the incubator organization, and to the social environment. The model is tested based on information from a survey administered to 152 Spanish academic entrepreneurs. Our results show that entrepreneurial opportunity is not part of the entrepreneurial motivation, but is of the utmost importance to academic entrepreneurs. Also, we find the scientific knowledge is the main driver of entrepreneurial activity in the academia.     

Evaluación de las prácticas de trabajo decente en las empresas. Análisis de las metodologías de calificación ambiental,social y de gobernanza

Las agencias de calificación ambiental, social y de gobernanza (ASG) han adquirido una función preeminente en el ámbito de la inversión responsable como proveedoras de datos no financieros. La bibliografía anterior sobre la construcción de métricas ASG no esclarece los procedimientos de las agencias para evaluar el trabajo decente. A partir del análisis de seis agencias de calificación, los autores investigan cómo se miden y evalúan los resultados empresariales en la dimensión de trabajo decente, señalando las dificultades conexas. El objetivo es determinar en qué medida la inversión responsable y las calificaciones ASG contribuyen a promover y a mejorar el trabajo decente en las empresas.     

INCENTIVES AND SOCIAL NORMS: A MOTIVATION‐BASED ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL NORMS

Abstract It is now commonplace to regard social norms as a subject of growing interest in the economic literature (e.g. game theoretical approaches based on ‘other‐regarding’ individual preferences, the analysis of the impact of rewards or punishment on individuals’ behaviour through experimental economics as well as field experiments, the revival of the institutionalist tradition spurred on by the influential work of Douglas North and followed by many others and the growing influence of neuroeconomics). In this paper, we focus on the relationship between incentives and social norms and survey the literature that could constitute the foundations of a motivation‐based economic analysis of social norms. Our main findings are that (1) the interaction between incentives and social norms is far from obvious since taking social norms into account involves the introduction of supplementary motives, in addition to self‐interest, into the economic analytical framework; (2) the analysis of the interaction between incentives and social norms resists an approach exclusively in terms of crowding‐in and ‐out effects because it is sensitive to whether it concerns behaviours driven by honour or by social stigma; (3) as a result, it is difficult to precisely evaluate the policy implication of the interactions between incentives and social norms.     

WHY FREE MARKETS SHOULD NOT BE BLAMED FOR THE CURRENT RECESSION

Interventionist thinkers are now claiming intellectual victory, blaming the free‐market system and its ideology for the current economic collapse. We find this thesis untenable, drawing on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Instead, we argue that the roots of our present downturn lie in the monetary system, whose institutional structure is far from any free‐market ideal. Moreover, several government policies have contributed to the problems.