旅游对传统村落的影响研究——以安徽齐云山为例

旅游影响一直是国内外旅游研究的重要课题,旅游地居民对旅游发展的感知是研究旅游影响的重要途径。此次调查以安徽省黄山市休宁县齐云山为例,采用问卷调查和现场访谈相结合的方式,运用SPSS、CATPACTM等软件对调查结果进行数理统计,从居民与游客角度分析了旅游开发给齐云山居民带来的经济、社会文化、环境的若干影响,以及居民对旅游业所持的态度。文章着重于探讨居民对于因旅游开发所带来的村落影响的感知,以及他们对于当前旅游影响的评测和对未来旅游发展的期待。     

并购交易中的金降落伞计划

对于即将奔赴海外进行并购的中国企业而言,必须仔细审视这些“金降落伞”计划是否会加大收购成本或增加目标公司现金支出从而阻碍购并。     

Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Evaluation of Alternative Statistical Frameworks

Corporate bankruptcy prediction has attracted significant research attention from business academics, regulators and financial economists over the past five decades. However, much of this literature has relied on quite simplistic classifiers such as logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Based on a large sample of US corporate bankruptcies, we examine the predictive performance of 16 classifiers, ranging from the most restrictive classifiers (such as logit, probit and linear discriminant analysis) to more advanced techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines (SVMs) and “new age” statistical learning models including generalised boosting, AdaBoost and random forests. Consistent with the findings of Jones et al. ( 2015 ), we show that quite simple classifiers such as logit and LDA perform reasonably well in bankruptcy prediction. However, we recommend the use of “new age” classifiers in corporate bankruptcy modelling because: (1) they predict significantly better than all other classifiers on both the cross‐sectional and longitudinal test samples; (2) the models may have considerable practical appeal because they are relatively easy to estimate and implement (for instance, they require minimal researcher intervention for data preparation, variable selection and model architecture specification); and (3) while the underlying model structures can be very complex, we demonstrate that “new age” classifiers have a reasonably good level of interpretability through such metrics as relative variable importances (RVIs).     

Financial competence,overconfidence, and trusting investments: Results from an experiment

Financial transactions sometimes occur in an environment where third-party enforcement is lacking. Behavioral explanations typically allude to the social preferences, where an individual’s utility is directly affected by another’s outcome, as the driver of the trusting investments and reciprocal returns. We hypothesize that, in part, these decisions are determined by an individual’s financial literacy and overconfidence in one’s knowledge. Experimental evidence is coupled with an innovative financial literacy assessment, which measures general competence, numeracy skills, and overconfidence in one’s knowledge. Results indicate that overconfidence is a significant determinant of behavior. Specifically, overconfident individuals make larger contributions in the investment game. We also document that there is an escalated effect in overconfident individuals who are also exhibit risk loving preferences.     

Developing tomorrow's leaders—Evidence of global talent management in multinational enterprises

Organizations are becoming relentless in managing and developing their key talent. This is a view, however, largely based on anecdote rather than reliable empirical evidence. Utilizing data from 260 multinational enterprises (MNEs), this paper helps redress this deficit. Specifically, this paper explores the extent to which MNEs engage in global talent management (GTM) and deciphers some of the factors which may explain the use and non-use of GTM practices. In so doing, we find that although a significant number of MNEs have systems and mechanisms in place to strategically identify and develop their talent many more seemingly adopt an ad hoc or haphazard approach. For instance, less than half of all MNEs have both global succession planning and formal management development programs for their high-potentials. Consequently it seems that there is a considerable distance yet to be travelled to arrive at a universal appreciation of the need to strategically manage one's key employees. We find the size of the MNE has a significant effect on GTM system usage—larger MNEs are more likely to undertake GTM. Other significant, positive influences include whether products or services are standardized regionally or globally, and if the MNE has a global human resources policy formation body. Of considerable interest is the finding that MNEs operating in the low-tech/low-cost sectors are significantly more likely to have formal global systems to identify and develop high-potentials.     

Culture and evaluation of service quality — a study of the service quality gaps in a Taiwanese setting

This research is built upon the work of Parasuraman, Zeithaml and Berry (1985) by exploring the service quality gap within a Taiwanese hospitality setting and reports the findings from 164 interviews among hotel managers, service staff, and hotel guests. One motive for the research was whether concepts derived from an American‐Euro‐centric conceptualisation of service relationships was transferable to another cultural setting. It was found that the influence of national, ethnic culture on perception of service is limited, but the factor of kuan‐hsi (personal relationship) and mien‐tsu (face) had some role to play in guest‐staff relationships. However, it is concluded that the globalisation of hotel corporate modes of operation have more influence in shaping expectations and thus the ServQual model has validity in such settings.     

The Aotearoa Traditional Maori Performing Arts Festival 1972–2000. A Case Study of Cultural Event Maturation

This article describes the history of the Aotearoa Traditional Maori Performing Arts Festival between the years of 1972–2000. It reveals a series of tensions between a need to express a cultural identity and financial constraint, between a wish for expressing independence, and a subsequent dependency upon state grants, between the traditional and the contemporary in performance. The history also shows the significance of key personalities. Yet through these discourses has emerged a successful and important Festival that attracts increasing numbers of participants and which is a dynamic component of Maori culture in contemporary New Zealand. A significant tourism event, by reason of primarily appealing to Maori it still, to a large extent, lies outside of the conventional tourism structures of New Zealand, dominated as these are by overseas visitors and non-Maori New Zealand domestic demand. Yet its very success is bringing it to the attention of a wider market, with all that implies for possible future development. The article also proposes dimensions of festival evolution and maturation.     

Globalization,employment relations and human resources indicators in ten developed market economies: international data sets

This paper provides statistical information on internationalization, human resources and labour market outcomes in ten important developed market economies (DMEs). Such data are useful for practitioners and academics who are interested in international HRM. The article's aim is to provide easily accessible statistical tables of selected characteristics, which can be used to draw initial comparisons between countries and to test competing accounts of the impact of globalization on national patterns of employment relations. It includes standard sources so readers can elaborate and update these data.     

Olympians or lemmings? the postmodernist fun run

The phenomenon of mass fun running in Britain dates from the early 1980s and displays much of the ideology of the ‘Sport For All’ campaign. While running as an activity can be viewed as a natural pastime, the notion of mass jogging, as exemplified by the Great North Run and the London Marathon, is more difficult to comprehend and requires further analysis. This paper argues that the mass fun run is an example of the ‘Society of Spectacle’: a commercial creature which is heavily reliant on media coverage and sponsorship and which serves as an endorsement and symbol of postmodern society. The media stresses the ‘tradition’ of such events and uses them as images of human decency and national unity. Yet the relationship between audience, participant and spectacle remains fragile and dependent upon commercial considerations.     

Gibbs posterior inference on value-at-risk

ABSTRACT

Accurate estimation of value-at-risk (VaR) and assessment of associated uncertainty is crucial for both insurers and regulators, particularly in Europe. Existing approaches link data and VaR indirectly by first linking data to the parameter of a probability model, and then expressing VaR as a function of that parameter. This indirect approach exposes the insurer to model misspecification bias or estimation inefficiency, depending on whether the parameter is finite- or infinite-dimensional. In this paper, we link data and VaR directly via what we call a discrepancy function, and this leads naturally to a Gibbs posterior distribution for VaR that does not suffer from the aforementioned biases and inefficiencies. Asymptotic consistency and root-n concentration rate of the Gibbs posterior are established, and simulations highlight its superior finite-sample performance compared to other approaches.