An application of the extended cross impact method to generating scenarios of social change in Japan

Scenarios of Japanese society in 2000 are obtained by applying an extended correlational cross impact analysis. Since the scope of the scenarios is extensive, a procedure is developed to generate the scenarios that consists of a preprocessing of the events of interest and a step-by-step application of a cross impact method. Three scenarios are described, based on a workshop where the procedure was applied.     

Strategy-proofness in many-to-one matching problems

We search forstrategy-proof solutions in the context of (many-to-one) matching problems (Gale and Shapley, 1962). In this model, whenever the firms can hire as many workers as they want (the capacities are unlimited) the stable set is a singleton. There exists aPareto efficient, individually rational, andstrategy-proof matching rule if and only if the capacities are unlimited. Furthermore, whenever the capacities unlimited, the matching rule which selects the unique stable matching is the only matching rule that isPareto efficient, individually rational, andstrategy-proof.     

A model of public sector wage determination

The paper presents an empirical model of wage determination in the public sector that leads to the specification of a system of interrelated wage equations for municipal employees, which allows for occupational and geographic interdependence of wages. The model also considers the influence of public employee unions, municipal government form, and monopsony power of local governments on the wages of municipal employees. Several variants of the derived system of equations are estimated based upon 1967 cross-section data for 478 cities, and the policy implications of the results are discussed.     

Effect of outliers on the estimation of parameters

Summary The estimation of parameter in the type of distributionf(x)=b x ^{–1 /b} exp (–x ^b (/b),x>0, is considered, when several outliers of the type , ,r=1,2, ...,k, are present in the data. The estimates of as well as of 's are put in the closed form. Special cases, Weibull, Gamma and Exponential are considered for the case of single outlier. Actual estimates are calculated from the generated samples of size 2 and 3 for the Weibull and Exponential.     

Levensduur en sloop van personenauto's in Nederland, 1950–1964*

Summary The life distribution of motorcars is examined over the period from 1950 to 1964. Age-specific survival rates, derived from Dutch registrations, are averaged and lead to the life table shown in table 4. The deviations from average age-specific survival rates show no significant variation over time nor over successive car generations. Since the registrations include an increasing number of used cars imported from Germany this apparent stability hides compensating changes in car scrap page. Since before the war the life expectancy of motorcars has increased from 8 to 11 years, and it is argued that this is due to the widening of the used car market. In the next stage, which is already well under way in Germany, new cars replace used cars, and rising apparent scrappage rates reflect the disposal of the latter by export.     

The effects of group decision-making process and problem-situation complexity on implementation attempts

The effects of group problem-solving method and problem-situation complexity on attempts at implementing group solutions were investigated in a laboratory-field setting. Group members were supervisory nurses from various organizations, who were randomly assigned to three groups in a balanced research design which included three group decision-making processes and three levels of problem-situation complexity in implementation. The dependent variable was the number of attempts at implementing group-derived solutions in home organizations. The results showed that structure in group decision-making processes led to increased rates of implementation attempts at all levels of problem-situation complexity. There was a significant complexity-by-process interaction effect among the decision-making processes, which supports the conclusion that the type of group decision-making process and the problem-situation complexity should be considered in order to optimize the number of implementation attempts.g     

A child health production function estimated from longitudinal data. Cebu Study Team

Collaborating researchers used a multi equation model to analyze 3080 mother-infant pairs living on the island of Cebu in the central Philippines and to estimate a child health production function. The econometric methods used eliminated obstacles such as heterogeneity and endogeneity of significant explanatory factors. They also maximized the longitudinal quality of the data. The results showed that morbidity in 1 period reduced infant weight in following periods. For example, diarrhea and febrile respiratory infection reduced growth in the time period following the illnesses. Further effects of some contributing factors were great near birth not diminished with age. For example, breast feeding promoted growth and protected against infection, especially diarrhea and febrile respiratory infection, more substantially near birth than it did later. Further, in urban areas, preventive health care positively affected growth independently of its indirect influence on reducing respiratory infection. Yet it had little effect on diarrhea. Diarrhea had a strong adverse effect on growth. Exposure of the infant to enteric pathogens had the greatest influence on production of diarrhea. In urban areas, exposure included water supply contamination, exposure to feces, a more pathogenic diet, and community crowding. In rural areas, however, exposure included community crowding and increased rainfall which presumably washed feces into the water supply. Household crowding in both urban and rural areas and irritation from smoke in urban areas only tended to bring about febrile respiratory infection.     

Stability and agreement criteria for the termination of Delphi studies

This paper addresses the question of the methodology of testing for stability between successive Delphi rounds and the necessity of doing so prior to the analysis of the level or type of consensus. Following a discussion of a hierarchical set of a criteria for determining the termination of such studies, the paper reviews some of the more common treatments of the subject in the literature. It is finally proposed that a χ² test be used to test the stability of responses between rounds. The method is demonstrated by a numerical example.     

A note on the extension of tables for the Friedman statistic

Abstract  The tables for the Friedman rank-test arc extended using a sampling method. A table is given for the traditional significance levels .01, .025, .05 and .10 for number of blocks equal to 7 and 8 and for treatments of size 6 and 7. A brief discussion of available tables is also included along with an example of an application.