Why the Pound Should be Devalued Inside the ERM

I believe the choice of DM2.95 as a central rate for sterling's entry into the ERM was a major mistake of macroeconomic policy, on a par with monetary targeting and underestimatingtlle late 1980s' consumer-led boom. Indeed it was a belief that we were about to make this mistake that led me to undertake, with colleagues at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a detailed and unique study of the choice facing policy makers. I shall have more to say on that study below. Shortly after entry I wrote: "The danger is that the government will attempt to defend the present exchange rate bands at all costs. As a result it may produce, or fail to prevent, a recession on the same scale as 1980-81. (Wren-Lewis, 1990, emphasis added). I fear that much of this has come to pass, but we still have a chance to retrieve something.
To propose a devaluation of sterling within the ERM requires three distinct arguments. The first is that we entered the ERM at a real exchange rate which was above a level required to produce a sustainable current account of the balance of payments. The second is that this matters, and in particular that it has prevented the government from taking steps to counteract the recession. The third is that the gains in adjusting, through a realignment, to a lower rate now outweigh the loss of credibility that would be involved. I shall consider each point in turn.¹     

Dividends and the Resolution of Uncertainty

Investors' alleged preference for current rather than future dividends cannot, it is argued, be explained by the hypothesis of a progressively higher discount rate for more distant dividends to reflect increasing riskiness. It is more likely to be caused by inadequate standards of disclosure by companies concerning their intended uses of the funds retained by them, as compared with the standards required for external sources of finance, and by the market's consequent lack of confidence in the productivity of the former.     

Employee Ownership and Company Performance

This paper investigates how Britain's largest employee-owned firm, the John Lewis Partnership, performs relative to its major competitors. In the context of John Lewis's unique constitutional structure, employee ownership appears to offer significant advantages in the market place. It is difficult to assess the relative importance of particular policies; as a group, employee ownership, open information flows, high wages, and profit share are clearly associated with high productivity.     

THE BEHAVIOUR OF CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSIT RATES IN THE UK

Using a number of maturities of up to one year and weekly highquality data on UK, CD rates, 1975–92, we provide a varietyof tests of the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure.Our results appear to give more support to the EH than do earlierstudies, which often use longer maturities and data of a lowerfrequency on coupon paying bonds and yield data on ‘bundlesof bonds’. If one is willing to assume that noise traderspredominate in the bond market at very short horizons, we canprovide some insights into empirical results, found in the literature.     

对中国当前城市社会稳定性的实证研究

本文旨在通过个人对其生活各个方面满意度的自我评定来测定中国城市社会的稳定性及其决定因素。本文使用的数据具有中国城市社会的代表性。本研究所得的主要结论为,经济的持续稳定增长以及就业机会的增加会降低人们的不满情绪,从而减轻了社会政治的不稳定性;在收入可持续增长时,仅收入分配不均一项指标并不一定导致不稳定;给予人们一定的政治空间,鼓励人们提高社会与社区的参与意识亦会提高人们的满足感;良好的家庭生活与社会关系网络会化解人们的不满情绪;在控制诸种可观察到的变量后,共产党员依然具有较高的满足感。     

Real Estate Prices and Corporate Investment: Theory and Evidence of Heterogeneous Effects across Firms

In this paper, we investigate the effect of real estate prices on productive investment. We build a theoretical framework of firms' investment with credit rationing and real estate collateral. We show that real estate prices affect firms' borrowing capacities through two channels. An increase in real estate prices raises the value of the firms' pledgeable assets and mitigates the agency problem characterizing the creditor–entrepreneur relationship. It simultaneously cuts the expected profit due to the increase in the cost of inputs. We test our theoretical predictions using a large French database. We do find heterogeneous effects of real estate prices on productive investment depending on the position of the firms in the sectoral distributions of real estate holdings.     

International Investment Restrictions and Closed-End Country Fund Prices

Some closed-end country funds trade at large premiums relative to their net asset values. This paper examines whether international investment restrictions raise country fund price-net asset value ratios by segmenting international capital markets. We test whether a relation exists between announcements of changes in investment restrictions and changes in these ratios using weekly data from May 1981 to January 1989. The results provide evidence that some foreign markets are at least partially segmented from the U.S. capital market.     

Credit Relationships: Evidence from Experiments with Real Bankers

We experimentally examine to what extent long‐term “lender–borrower” relationships mitigate moral hazard. The originality of our research lies in recruiting not only students but also commercial and social bankers. The opportunity to engage in bilateral long‐term relationships mitigates the repayment problem. Lenders take advantage of their long‐term situation by increasing their rates. Consequently, borrowers are incited to take more risk. Improving information disclosure ameliorates the repayment but does not incite lenders to offer more credits. Social bankers exhibit a higher probability of granting a loan and make fairer credit offers to borrowers than the other subject pools do.     

Demographic Characteristics of Canadian Consumer Complainers

A survey of over 17,000 Canadian consumers who had written a letter of complaint to one of several government or consumer service agencies in 1972 found that the average consumer complainer is a middle aged, well educated, affluent, managerial-professional man or woman. The study also found that 49 percent of complaint letters are written by only 24 percent consumer of complainers and that consumers who write several letters of complaint are also well educated, affluent, and have managerial/professional occupations. These findings suggest that care must be taken in using consumer complaint data to identify the nature and severity of consumer problems in the marketplace or as a foundation for government policy and programs.