Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in‐sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis‐à‐vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.     

What do Australian Annual Reports Say About Future Earnings?

Prospective earnings information in Australian firms' annual reports has been claimed to be of sufficient importance to warrant its statutory requirement, or at least its "active encouragement". With the introduction of AASB 1039 Concise Financial Reports, management discussion and analysis is required in some circumstances, although there is no explicit requirement to provide prospective earnings disclosures. A survey of a sample of ASX-listed firms shows that about 25% include some form of earnings forecast, although most are qualitative, while even a coarse measure of their accuracy suggests they are relatively unreliable. These results give rise to some concern that encouraging the provision of prospective earnings data may not necessarily assist investors.     

ASSESSING THE WELFARE IMPACT OF TAX REFORM: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2001 U.S. TAX CUT

This paper implements a relatively simple methodological approach to estimate the impact on family welfare of a specific tax reform. The measured impact can differ greatly from simple marginal tax rate comparisons, and conclusions about the distribution of the welfare impact can vary depending on the basis of comparison. For example, absolute welfare gains from the 2001 U.S. tax reform were concentrated among the highest and lowest income families, whereas welfare gains measured as a share of pre‐tax income are found to be nearly monotonically declining in income.     

Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration

Mandatory disclosure is a regulatory tool intended to allow market participants to assess operational risk. We examine the value of disclosure through the controversial SEC requirement, since overturned, which required major hedge funds to register as investment advisors and file Form ADV disclosures. Leverage and ownership structures suggest that lenders and equity investors were already aware of operational risk. However, operational risk does not mediate flow‐performance relationships. Investors either lack this information or regard it as immaterial. These findings suggest that regulators should account for the endogenous production of information and the marginal benefit of disclosure to different investment clienteles.     

Combining Earnings and Book Value in Equity Valuation*

It is common to apply multipliers to both earnings and book value to calculate approximate equity values. However, applying a price-earnings multiplier or a price-to-book multiplier typically produces two valuations and the analyst is left with the question of how to combine them into one valuation. This paper calculates weights that combine the valuations and shows that these weights vary over the difference between earnings and book value, doing so systematically over time. When earnings are small compared to book value, the weights are different from when earnings are large relative to book value, and they vary in a nonlinear way over the difference between the two. The weights also combine forecasts of future earnings, based on earnings and book value separately, into one composite forecast. The paper calculates a second set of weights to ascertain how the two numbers are combined to forecast one-year-ahead earnings and three-years-ahead earnings. The calculated weights are applied out of sample to ascertain their predictive ability against other benchmarks.     

The Development of Agrarian Capitalism in Post‐Soviet Russia

A core set of criteria have been met, so that it is accurate to speak of an agrarian capitalist system in Russia. The development of agrarian capitalism carries with it increased stratification, which is analysed along five dimensions: earned income, land expansion, use of credit, income from food sales and income from household enterprise. The paper demonstrates increasing differentiation between households, between professional cohorts and within professional cohorts. The data showing stratification within professions suggest that intra‐cohort stratification is driving most of the inter‐cohort stratification. The Russian model of agrarian capitalism and its processes of stratification have yielded a bifurcated countryside in which a thin stratum of ‘super winners’ has emerged. Economic processes have developed beyond simple stratification and have created the basis from which a rudimentary class structure appears to be forming.