Unskilled Migration: A Burden or a Boon for the Welfare State?

As relatively low earners, migrants are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. Therefore, in a static setup, migration may be resisted by the entire native-born population. However, it is shown that in a dynamic setup with a pension system, which is an important pillar of any welfare state, migration is beneficial to all income (high and low) and all age (old and young) groups, when the economy has good access to international capital markets. The pro-migration feature of the dynamic model is weakened and possibly overturned when the economy does not have good access to such markets. In this case, to the extent that factor prices are significantly affected by migration because of low substitution between labour and capital, low-skill native born and possibly also high-skill native born may lose.     

Increasing Dependency Ratios, Pensions and Tax Smoothing

The implication of increasing dependency ratios for pay–as–you–go, defined–benefit pension programmes are examined. Modifications aimed at smoothing contributions while maintaining benefits intact are analysed for both open and closed economies.
(J.E.L.: H2, F3, J1).     

Welfare criteria for tax reforms: Efficiency aspects

This paper provides unexpected support to Nash's view of how bargaining determines the social choice. We first present a spatial model of electoral competition with probabilistic voting and a very close relation between voters' preferences and their choice probabilities. The outcome of the electoral competition game is then shown to be precisely the social alternative that maximizes a Nash-type social welfare function (theorem 1). This electoral outcome is also interpreted as a unanimity likelihood maximum (corollary 1). Within our framework, existence and uniqueness of such an outcome are guaranteed (corollaries 2 and 3).     

Corporate transparency, cream-skimming and FDI

We develop a simple information-based model of Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. On the one hand, the relative abundance of “intangible” capital in specialized industries in the source countries, which presumably generates expertise in screening investment projects in the host countries, enhances FDI flows. On the other hand, host-country relative corporate-transparency diminishes the value of this expertise, thereby reducing the flow of FDI. The model also demonstrates that the gains for the host country from FDI [over foreign portfolio investment (FPI)] are reflected in a more efficient size of the stock of domestic capital and its allocation across firms. These gains are shown to depend crucially (and positively) on the degree of competition among FDI investors. We provide also some evidence on the effects of corporate transparency indicators, such as accounting standards, on bilateral FDI flows from a panel of 24 OECD countries over the period of 1981-1998.     

Pricing the commonality across alternative measures of liquidity

We estimate latent factor models of liquidity, aggregated across various liquidity measures. Shocks to assets’ liquidity have a common component across measures which accounts for most of the explained variation in individual liquidity measures. We find that across-measure systematic liquidity is a priced factor while within-measure systematic liquidity does not exhibit additional pricing information. Controlling for across-measure systematic liquidity risk, there is some evidence that liquidity, as a characteristic of assets, is priced in the cross-section. Our results are robust to the inclusion of other equity characteristics and risk factors, such as market capitalization, book-to-market, and momentum.     

Seasonality in the cross-section of stock returns

This paper presents a new pattern in the cross-section of expected stock returns. Stocks tend to have relatively high (or low) returns every year in the same calendar month. We recognize the annual cross-sectional autocorrelation pattern documented in Jegadeesh [1990. Evidence of predictable behavior of security returns. Journal of Finance 45, 881–898] at lags of 12, 24, and 36 months as part of a general pattern that lasts up to 20 annual lags, superimposed on the general momentum/reversal patterns. This pattern explains an economically and statistically significant magnitude of the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns. Volume and volatility exhibit similar seasonal patterns but they do not explain the seasonality in returns. The pattern is independent of size, industry, earnings announcements, dividends, and fiscal year. The results are consistent with the existence of a persistent seasonal effect in stock returns.     

The divergence of liquidity commonality in the cross-section of stocks

This paper demonstrates that the cross-sectional variation of liquidity commonality has increased over the period 1963–2005. The divergence of systematic liquidity can be explained by patterns in institutional ownership over the sample period. We document that our findings are associated with similar patterns in systematic risk. Our analysis also indicates that the ability to diversify systematic risk and aggregate liquidity shocks by holding large-cap stocks has declined. The evidence suggests that the fragility of the US equity market to unanticipated events has increased over the past few decades.     

Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk

This paper investigates the components of liquidity risk that are important for understanding asset-pricing anomalies. Firm-level liquidity is decomposed into variable and fixed price effects and estimated using intraday data for the period 1983–2001. Unexpected systematic (market-wide) variations of the variable component rather than the fixed component of liquidity are shown to be priced within the context of momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) portfolio returns. As the variable component is typically associated with private information [e.g., Kyle, 1985. Econometrica 53, 1315–1335], the results suggest that a substantial part of momentum and PEAD returns can be viewed as compensation for the unexpected variations in the aggregate ratio of informed traders to noise traders.