Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression

Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.     

The effect of nonreciprocal preferential trade agreements on benefactors’ exports

Over the last decades, developed countries have provided developing countries with preferential market access via trade policies in the form of nonreciprocal preferential trade agreements (NRPTAs). Despite the lack of reciprocity of this kind of agreements, certain criteria for designating eligible countries refer to the commercial interests of benefactor countries. This paper examines for the first time the effect of NRPTAs on benefactors’ exports to beneficiary countries. Using recent developments in the econometric analysis of the gravity equation, we find robust evidence that nonreciprocal agreements have had an economically significant effect on exports not only for beneficiary countries but also for benefactor countries.     

Process innovations and firm productivity growth

This article analyses the effect of process innovations on firm total factor productivity growth, explicitly considering the impact of firm size on the nature of this relationship. In particular, we analyse whether firm size affects the life span of the impact of process innovations on productivity growth. The data are drawn from a Spanish survey of manufacturing firms over the period 1991–1998. We use a fully non-parametric methodology based on the concept of stochastic dominance. Our results show that the implementation of process innovations produces an extra productivity growth both for large and small firms. However, this productivity growth is more persistent for large than for small firms.     

Minimum cost spanning tree problems with groups

We study minimum cost spanning tree problems with groups. We assume that agents are located in different villages, cities, etc. The groups are the agents of the same village. We introduce a rule for dividing the cost of connecting all agents to the source among the agents taking into account the group structure. We characterize this rule with several desirable properties. We prove that this rule coincides with the Owen value of the TU game associated with the irreducible matrix.     

Gender Inequality in the Spanish Public Pension System

This contribution studies revenue sharing in the public pension system in Spain from a gender perspective, revealing that differences are evident in the percentage of men and women entitled to different types of pensions and in the average fiscal amount per pension for men and women. Using 2010 data, the study analyzes how labor market conditions are reflected in pension type and amount for women pensioners, yielding two important conclusions: the income of women pensioners decreases, relative to men, with age; and the degree of inequality of pensions among women is lower than that among men. These gender differences owe to the contributory character of the system, which reproduces the labor market inequalities of both genders – inequalities that ultimately derive from the social division of roles in which women remain responsible for unpaid care work. This conclusion is consistent with similar studies on other European countries and world regions.     

Pricing to market in European automobile exports to OECD countries: a panel data approach

This paper investigates pricing to market behaviour using data for European auto exports. The empirical analysis uses forward instead of spot exchange rates. Cross-country and cross-product analyses reveal that pricing behaviour depends mainly on the class of product, while the country of origin and destination appears as less important. Furthermore, the data do not usually reject the hypothesis of a symmetric response of export prices to depreciations and appreciations of the exporter's currency. Finally, although the point estimates confirm the combined influence of the business cycle and the direction of the exchange rate movements on pricing to market in most cases, formal tests seldom provide statistical significance for this result.     

Policy coherence between tourism and climate policies: the case of Spain and the Autonomous Community of Catalonia

Abstract

The relationship between tourism and climate change is reciprocal. The effects of climate change on tourism are undeniable. However, tourism and climate change are complex and cross-cutting phenomena that enter policy agendas at different moments and with different discourses. This paper analyses the coherence between the policy domains of climate and tourism at the formulation stage of the policy process, focusing on national and regional government levels and the key touristic offer in Spain – that of sun, sea and sand. The proposed method analyses three dimensions within policy documents: frame significance, policy scope and connotation. Results reveal the imbalance between the two policy domains; the lack of concrete actions and stable mechanisms for achieving greater coherence; and the different conceptions of the issue. The paper considers the causal relationships between tourism and climate change, the consequences of mutual impacts, and the temporal dimension of problem framing. This research brings together three fields of knowledge – tourism, climate change and public policies – and suggests enhancing coherence between tourism and climate policies in order to address the sustainability of tourism destinations.     

The Importance of Quality,Satisfaction, Trust,and Image in Relation to Rural Tourist Loyalty

In the past decade, tourism firms have become aware of the great benefits of maintaining a solid base of loyal customers. Because rural tourism is a relatively new phenomenon in some countries, the main antecedent of tourism loyalty remains infrequently studied in rural lodgings. In this work, a structural equations model is explored, with PLS technique, giving relevance to the interrelationships among image, quality, satisfaction, and trust and among these variables and the tourists' behavior variables. Instruments are identified and exploratory research was undertaken among rural tourists of the main rural lodgings in two border regions of Spain and Portugal. The results confirm image as a direct antecedent of perceived quality, satisfaction, trust, and loyalty for rural tourism, too. The analysis also confirmed that quality has a positive influence on satisfaction and loyalty, and trust has a positive influence on loyalty. Image is shown as a key factor to rural lodging managers. This study may help rural tourism managers to develop and implement effective relationship marketing strategies.     

Accounting curriculum reform? The devil is in the detail

Chabrak and Craig's paper (2013) draws on a number of assumptions that require qualification. In particular, I focus on the following aspects: (i) purpose of reform, (ii) faculty, (iii) students, (iv) degree in management/accounting, and (v) educational materials. In retrospect, calls for the reform of the accounting curriculum have been rather unsuccessful. Therefore rather than waiting for the implementation of some “grand” reform, I encourage an individual approach to this important issue. In this regard, the commentary concludes with some specific suggestions to instill critical thinking in accounting students.     

On the Efficiency of Bankruptcy Law: Empirical Evidence in Spain

The current economic crisis is showing one of the main problems that many companies in financial distress have to face, namely, the impact of bankruptcy law in relation to companies and firms. This paper aims to analyze the bankruptcy law ex‐ante efficiency when companies are in financial distress. To test it out, two research questions are submitted: (i) Is solvency, the criterion used in the Spanish law, the best one to assess the relative significance of the main indicators, which determine bankrupt firms? (ii) Is the Spanish bankruptcy law efficient according to solvency or are there better criteria? To answer them, a logistic regression model is conducted. The sample embraces 1,387 firms in Spain, the data being obtained from 12 Commercial Justice Courts complemented with financial information. The main conclusion is that the solvency criterion is adequate to classify bankrupt companies although currently Spanish Bankruptcy law is not as efficient as it could be. Additionally, the relevant companies' indicators, which explain the financial distress procedure, are presented. Copyright © 2013 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd