Valuación de opciones de tipo de cambio asumiendo distribuciones α-estables

This paper aims to present the valuation of options using the Black-Scholes method assuming α-stable distributions as an alternative option valuation in the Mexican market. The use of α-stable distributions for modelling financial series allows to overcome the classical valuation main weakness which assumes normality, by capturing the presence of heavy tails and asymmetry in financial time series. One of the main results is the price differential between the two models and the effect of alpha and beta parameters on prices; to show the difference valuation is made of a call option and a put option for the peso-dollar exchange rate. Likewise, basic sensitivity measurements of options (delta, gamma, and rho) were made and the effect of the stability parameter (α) was made on the implied volatility of options assuming the α-stable price as the market price.     

The effects of macroeconomic stability on foreign trade. An analysis for Spain, 1986–2000

Two main factors underlie the rebirth of interest in the study of the influence of the real exchange rate on trade, the reduction of its volatility and the current trend towards price stability. The objective of this study is to analyse the effects of the process of nominal convergence, required of the European member states for the fulfilment of monetary integration, on foreign trade flows. The case of Spain, which is especially interesting in this context, is studied for the period 1986 to 2000. The results of estimating the aggregate functions of the export and import of goods shows how macroeconomic stability has altered the behaviour of trade with respect to the two basic determinants – income and prices – how it has caused a significant structural change in the real exchange rate and, finally, how it has laid the explanatory bases for transactions in the twenty-first century with the single currency – the euro.     

A simple inflation indicator for the euro zone

This article proposes and estimates an inflation indicator for the European Monetary Union (EMU). This indicator is set up so that it is contemporarily not affected by the changes in price differentials among EMU countries. The results show that the Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP), which is the inflation measure that the European Central Bank (ECB) takes as a reference for monetary policy purposes, could be understating the value of the inflation in the euro zone. It is also concluded that regional peculiarities are fundamental in the evolution of prices in the different EMU countries.     

Pass-through in dollarized countries: should Ecuador abandon the US dollar?

In this article, we examine the convenience of dollarization for Ecuador today. As Ecuador is strongly integrated financially and commercially with the United States, the exchange rate pass-through should be zero. However, we sustain that rising rates of imports from trade partners other than the United States and subsequent real effective exchange rate depreciations are causing the pass-through to move away from zero. Here, in the framework of the Vector Error Correction Model, we analyse the impulse response function and variance decomposition of the inflation variable. We show that the developing economy of Ecuador is importing inflation from its main trading partners, most of them emerging countries with appreciated currencies. We argue that if Ecuador recovered both its monetary and exchange rate instruments, it would be able to fight against inflation. We believe such an analysis could be extended to other countries with pegged exchange rate regimes.     

Battle royal in biotechnology: R&D vs. product vs. process innovations

Companies regard innovation as a central element of their business. However, as not all innovation types are the same, the central question is: should their announcements bring about the same effect on performance? This article analyses potential differences in firm value derived from the innovation-type announcements ‘R&;D’, ‘product’, and ‘process’, made by intensive news-generating firms such as biotech companies. The empirical application shows a significantly positive reaction to innovation announcements, with the prospect of future innovation (‘R&;D’ investment announcements) having greater impact on firm value than ‘product’ and ‘process’ innovations. Firm experience also acts as a moderator in this innovation–performance relationship, which is particularly relevant for entrepreneurs who need to develop and send credible signals indicating the value of the firm's intangible assets to the market.     

Unbundling tolls from contracts: a new road PPP model

Considerable evidence from different countries has revealed important shortcomings in most road public–private partnership (PPP) models. In this paper a new PPP model is presented that overcomes some of the problems found in PPP road contracts. The new model is based on separating user tolls from the fees paid to PPP contractors and setting up new institutional arrangements to oversee PPPs.     

Retail Store Loyalty Management via an Analysis of Heterogeneity of the Service Elements

This paper follows a line of research opened up by a series of authors who use a marketing approach for the study of retail service productivity. Without departing from the line of reasoning established by these authors, the main purpose of this paper is to detect possible differences in marketing productivity within and between different types of retailing services, using a research model that includes both the firm's effort and that of the customer. The two services selected for this purpose are grocery outlets and petrol stations.     

Austerity measures in crisis countries — results and impact on mid-term development

Since the onset of the sovereign debt crisis, the crisis-stricken countries in Europe have been pushed to take drastic steps to consolidate their finances and reduce their budget deficits. Despite strong public opposition and largely damaging short-run effects, the countries have undertaken many of the internationally recommended/mandated reforms and spending cuts. In this Forum, authors from Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal report on the fiscal consolidation achieved in their respective countries — and the sacrifices that have made it possible. Furthermore, the authors detail what remains to be done to resolve the crisis.     

Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.     

THE (IR)RELEVANCE OF THE NRU FOR POLICY MAKING: THE CASE OF DENMARK

We reconsider the central role of the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) in forming policy decisions. We show that the unemployment rate does not gravitate towards the NRU due to frictional growth, a phenomenon that encapsulates the interplay between lagged adjustment processes and growth in dynamic labour market systems. We choose Denmark as the focal point of our empirical analysis and find that the NRU explains only 33% of the unemployment variation, while frictional growth accounts for the remaining 67%. Therefore, our theoretical and empirical findings raise doubts as to whether the NRU should play such a key instrumental role in policy making.