Institutions Meet Mind: The Way out of a Deadlock

The crucial importance of institutional analysis in economics and the social sciences in general is well understood. Yet, institutional economists have only a limited understanding of individual behavior in institutional settings, the emergence and spread of innovative behavior, and of how individual behavior influences the creation of norms, and vice versa. This paper elaborates on the work of Douglas North, who emphasized the importance of the connection between the evolution of the mind and the evolution of institutions, and highlights the need to investigate the cognitive mechanisms of individuals. We focus, therefore, on the field of modern cognitive science and discuss some of its findings. This approach should be given priority in the development of institutional analysis. Research results in the cognitive sciences, and in particular cognitivism and connectionism, are of vital interest here. In this context, the work of the Austrian school, especially Hayek's The Sensory Order, is extremely relevant and seems to foreshadow future developments. It thus deserves reappraisal.     

Subjective Diversity and Social Learning: A Cognitive Perspective for Understanding Institutional Behavior

This paper deals with a controversial problem in the economics of institutions: how do regularities emerge and evolve out of the social interaction of various agents? Referring to arguments developed in a previous work (Rizzello and Turvani 2000) in which the Austrian Economics' views about the spontaneous emergence of institutions is connected to and enriched by recent findings in the cognitive sciences, the authors here extend the institutional-cognitive approach by incorporating the social cognitive theory of Albert Bandura. Accordingly, rather than being described as ‘instruments’ for social coordination, institutions are depicted as ‘structures’ emerging from the subjective process of generation of knowledge within a social context. Institutional behavior, its emergence and evolution is thus anchored to the mechanisms creating subjective diversity and those producing social learning.     

Limited factor substitutability,economic dualism,and non-saving constraints on growth

Limited substitutability has previously been defined as responsiveness of factor proportions within a certain factor-price range only, or as fixed coefficients in some sectors combined with variable proportions in others. This article explores a third definition: substitutability between some factors, combined with complementarity between those and other factors. The notion of economic dualism is thereby expanded to encompass a possible surplus not only of labor, but of any resource. The conclusion is that a non-saving constraint does not require fixed coefficients across the board, the economic dualism may therefore emerge even when commodity and factor markets are competitive.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of mechanical thrombectomy with stent retriever in the treatment of acute ischemic stroke in Italy

Background: Stroke has a significant disease burden in terms of acute and long-term disability in Italy and throughout the world. Endovascular treatments for the management of a stroke event have been coupled in the past years with the possibility to mechanically remove the occlusion by means of specially designed thrombectomy devices, and their exclusive use showed levels of effectiveness in line with those of the existing pharmacological treatments.

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) with the Solitaire Revascularization Device (stent retriever) for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) in patients with large vessel occlusions (LVOs), comparing MT plus intravenous tissue plasminogen activation (MT plus IV t-PA) vs IV t-PA alone, in Italy.

Methods: A Markov model was used to simulate costs and benefits of MT plus IV t-PA and IV t-PA alone over a 5-year time horizon and considering the perspective of the Italian National Health Service (NHS). Results are reported in terms of Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses are carried out in order to test the robustness of the results.

Results: Total costs of MT plus IV t-PA and IV t-PA alone are equal to €31,798 and €34,855, respectively. The MT allows incremental QALYs for 0.77, determining a dominant ICER. The utilities associated to the mRS health states are the parameters with the highest impact on the results. Multiway sensitivity analyses determined a 90% probability of dominance.

Conclusions: MT plus IV t-PA for AIS patients with LVO is cost-effective from year 1 through year 3, and cost-saving from year 4 onward in the Italian context, achieving better results, both in terms of efficacy and in terms of resource consumption.     

IMPACT OF TIME ILLIQUIDITY IN A MIXED MARKET WITHOUT FULL OBSERVATION

We study a problem of optimal investment/consumption over an infinite horizon in a market with two possibly correlated assets: one liquid and one illiquid. The liquid asset is observed and can be traded continuously, while the illiquid one can be traded only at discrete random times, corresponding to the jumps of a Poisson process with intensity λ, is observed at the trading dates, and is partially observed between two different trading dates. The problem is a nonstandard mixed discrete/continuous optimal control problem, which we solve by a dynamic programming approach. When the utility has a general form, we prove that the value function is the unique viscosity solution of the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and characterize the optimal allocation in the illiquid asset. In the case of power utility, we establish the regularity of the value function needed to prove the verification theorem, providing the complete theoretical solution of the problem. This enables us to perform numerical simulations, so as to analyze the impact of time illiquidity and how this impact is affected by the degree of observation.     

Multichannel marketing: Mindset and program development

Individual consumers have quickly embraced the practice of using a variety of channels through which to make their purchases, as 65-70% of them are multichannel shoppers. Indeed, multichannel shoppers (defined as those who utilize a variety of different purchasing channels, including bricks-and-mortar stores, the telephone, and the Internet) are now in the majority, and spend significantly more than single-channel shoppers. Given this reality, it is critical that organizations adopt a multichannel mindset and effectively employ a multichannel marketing program, as these can enhance profitability, the customer experience, and customer satisfaction. It is the aim of this article to provide firms with guidance in developing an effective multichannel mindset and in designing a multichannel marketing program for serving end-consumers in business to consumer (B2C) situations.     

Unawareness, priors and posteriors

This note contains first thoughts on awareness of unawareness in a simple dynamic context where a decision situation is repeated over time. The main consequence of increasing awareness is that the model the decision maker uses, and the prior which it contains, becomes richer over time. The decision maker is prepared to this change, and we show that if a projection-consistency axiom is satisfied unawareness does not affect the value of her estimate of a payoff-relevant conditional probability (although it may weaken confidence in such estimate). Probability-zero events however, pose a challenge to this axiom, and if that fails, even estimate values will be different if the decision maker takes unawareness into account. In examining evolution of knowledge about relevant variable through time, we distinguish between transition from uncertainty to certainty and from unawareness to certainty directly, and argue that new knowledge may cause posteriors to jump more if it is also new awareness. Some preliminary considerations on convergence of estimates are included.      

A Measure of Representativeness of a Sample for Inferential Purposes

After defining the concept of representativeness of a random sample, the author proposes a measure of how much the observed sample represents its parent distribution. This measure is called Representativeness Index. The same measure, seen as a function of a sample and of a distribution, will be called Representativeness Function. For a given sample it provides the value of the index for the different distributions under examination, and for a given distribution it provides a measure of the representativeness of its possible samples. Such Representativeness Function can be used in an inferential framework just as the likelihood function, since it gives to any distribution the "experimental support" provided by the observed sample. This measure is distribution-free and it is shown to be a transformation of the wellknown Cramér–von Mises statistic. By using the properties of that statistic, criteria for providing set estimators and tests of hypotheses are introduced. The utilization of the representativeness function in many standard statistical problems is outlined through examples. The quality of the inferential decisions can be assessed with the usual techniques (MSE, power function, coverage probabilities). The most interesting examples turn out to be those of situations that are "non-regular", as for instance the estimation of parameters involved in the support of the parent distribution, or less explored (model choice).