A model of dumping and protectionism in the United States

Zusammenfassung Dumping und Protektionismus in den Vereinigten Staaten-ein Modell. — Der Autor untersucht die Beziehung zwischen Antidumpingma\nahmen und dem neuen Protektionismus, reformuliert und erweitert die Theorie des Dumping und sch?tzt ein Modell mit simultanen Gleichungen, um die Ursachen und Wirkungen von Antidumpingma\nahmen in den Vereinigten Staaten zu überprüfen. Der empirische Test des Modells zeigt, da\ die Durchdringung des amerikanischen Marktes mit Importwaren negativ korreliert ist mit dem Prozentsatz der erfolgreichen Antr?ge auf Antidumpingma\nahmen, aber positiv mit der überbewertung des Dollar und dem Grad an Offenheit der US-Wirtschaft. Die Zahl der registrierten Antidumpingantr?ge steht in direktem Verh?ltnis zum wirtschaftlichen Wachstum der Vereinigten Staaten im Vergleich zu anderen Industriel?ndern, und der Prozentsatz der erfolgreichen Antidumpingantr?ge ist negativ korreliert mit der Handelsbilanz, der H?he des Volkseinkommens und der Anzahl der registrierten Antidumpingantr?ge.

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Résumé Un modèle du dumping et du protectionisme aux Etats-Unis. — Cette étude examine les relations entre l’action anti-dumping et le nouveau protectionisme, revise et étend la théorie du dumping et estime un modèle d’équations simultanées pour examiner les causes et les effets de l’action anti-dumping aux Etats-Unis. Le test empirique du modèle démontre que la pénétration de l’importation dépend (i) de sens inverse du rapport des requêtes anti-dumping déposées, mais couronnées de succès et (ii) de sens positif de la surévaluation du dollar et du degré que l’économie américaine est ouverte. Le nombre des requêtes anti-dumping déposées dépend directement du croissance économique des Etats-Unis en relation aux autres pays industriels. Le rapport des requêtes anti-dumping dépend de sens inverse de la balance commerciale, du niveau du produit domestique et du nombre des requêtes anti-dumping déposées.

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Resumen Un modelo de dumping y proteccionismo para los EE UU. — Este trabajo examina la relatión entre una medida antidumping y el nuevo proteccionismo, reformula y extiende la teoria del antidumping y estima un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas para estudiar las causas y efectos de medidas antidumping en los EE UU. El test empirico del modelo muestra (1) que la penetration con importaciones esta inversamente relacionada con el porcentaje de peticiones antidumping exitosas registradas y afectadas positivamente por la sobrevaluación del dólar y el grado de apertura de la economia de los EE UU, (2) que el numéro de peticiones antidumping registradas esta relacionado directamente con el credimiento de los EE UU relativo al de otros pa?ses industriales, y (3) que el porcentaje de peticiones antidumping exitosas está inversamente relacionado con el balance comercial, el nivel de ingreso nacional real y el núméro de peticiones antidumping registradas.

     

Financial Supervision: Integrated or Specialized?The case of Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper discusses the relative merits of the two approaches of financial regulation and supervision for the case of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In doing so, it reviews the main arguments advanced in the specialized literature in pro and against of each approach. All the theoretical arguments are contrasted with available country experiences from around the world and discussed with a focus on the Latin American and Caribbean countries. A methodology to analyze the efficacy and the efficiency of each approach in meeting the main objectives of financial regulation is also provided. The paper concludes that in the present circumstances, the net benefits of adopting an integrated approach probably exceed the net benefits stemming from the adoption of a specialized approach for most of the countries in the region.     

The global economic consequences of the Uruguay Round

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round.     

Robustness of Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies with Data Revisions—A Note

Data revisions routinely introduced by the World Bank can lead to significant revisions in empirical results. We show this by re-estimating our aggregate indicator for predicting the 1997 Asian crisis utilizing the 1999 and 2004 updates of the 1996 World Bank data and comparing these results to those we obtained (this Journal, 2000) for predicting the same event using the original, unrevised, 1996 World Bank data. Since most data-gathering organizations routinely revise their data, this may represent a much greater problem for policy makers than might be recognized.     

Entry of painters in the Amsterdam market of the Golden Age

We analyze the evolution of the entry of painters and price of paintings in the XVII century Amsterdam art market. In line with evolutionary theory, demand-driven entry in the market was first associated with product innovations and a rapid increase in the number of painters. After reaching a peak, the number of painters started to decrease in parallel with a price decline and the introduction of process innovations. To test for the role of profitability in the art market as a determinant of endogenous entry of painters, we build a price index for the representative painting inventoried in Dutch houses. This is based on hedonic regressions controlling for characteristics of the paintings (size, genre, placement in the house), the owners (job, religion, value of the collection, size of the house) and the painters. After a peak at the beginning of the century, the real price of paintings decreased until the end of the century. We provide anecdotal evidence for which high initial prices attracted entry of innovators, and econometric evidence on the causal relation between price movements and entry.