Devaluation,Debt, and Default in Emerging Economies

We explore the interactions between exchange rate and fiscal policy, and default on external debt. Exchange rate policy affects the supply of short-term debt facing the government. Under a conventional soft peg, it can be optimal for the government to set the exchange rate at a level in which partial default occurs. In this case multiple equilibria exist, with one featuring high interest rate, overvalued exchange rate, low level of output, and default. Default is also an equilibrium under a hard peg, precisely because devaluation is not an option. Under a hard peg, however, there is a unique equilibrium.

A Multi-Agent Coalition Formation Method Based on Preference Models

Coordination is one of the fundamental research issues in distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Current multi-agent coalition formation methods present two major problems. First, some of these methods can be applied only to cooperative multi-agent systems; second, the algorithms proposed may fail in the formation of the coalitions. This article proposes two methods for problems of agent coalition formation in cooperative and non-cooperative multi-agent systems. These methods are based on agent preference models and on preference aggregation using the Choquet integral. Our first method based on the evolutionary system design (ESD) methodology proposed by M. Shakun is required for competitive multi-agent systems, whereas our second method is powerful for cooperative multi-agent systems where the agents can exchange their information.     

Energy Price Shocks and Financial Market Integration: Evidence from New Keynesian Model

International Advances in Economic Research - The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of oil price shocks on economic activity. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was applied...     

Are Good Performers Bad Acquirers?

We examine how the market reacts to announcements of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by well‐performing acquirers and evaluate the results in light of three hypotheses: 1) managerial ability, 2) empire building, and 3) chief executive officer (CEO) overconfidence. Our results indicate that an empire‐building motive drives the relationship between past superior operating performance and M&A announcements. Long‐term operating performance drops significantly for acquiring firms with past superior operating performance. Our evidence also indicates that the presence of insider directors helps to alleviate the negative perception of acquisitions made by firms with better operating performance or empire‐building CEOs.     

Does Religion Matter to Equity Pricing?

For a sample comprising 36,105 U.S. firm-year observations from 1985 to 2008, we find that firms located in more religious counties enjoy cheaper equity financing costs. This result is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests, including alternative assumptions and model specifications, additional controls for noise in analyst forecasts, and various approaches to addressing endogeneity. In another set of tests, we find that the equity pricing role that religion plays comes predominantly from Mainline Protestants. We also document that the effect of religiosity on firms?? cost of equity capital is larger for firms (periods) lacking alternative monitoring (regulation) mechanisms as measured by lower institutional ownership (the pre-SOX era), implying that religion plays a corporate governance role. Finally, we find that the importance of religion to equity pricing is concentrated in firms that suffer lower visibility, which tend to be more sensitive to local social and economic factors. By examining the links between religiosity and valuation at the firm level, we provide strong, robust evidence supporting the perspective that religion facilitates economic development.     

Do asset impairments and the associated disclosures resolve uncertainty about future returns and reduce information asymmetry?

The objective of this study is to provide insights into how Australian listed firms are implementing AASB 136 Impairments of Assets. Our first concern is whether uncertainty about future returns and information asymmetry motivates the recognition of asset impairments. We find no evidence that the recognition of asset impairments is associated with higher uncertainty about future returns. Furthermore, we find no evidence that the recognition of asset impairments is associated with higher information asymmetry. Our second concern is whether asset impairments and the associated disclosures provide information that reduces uncertainty about future returns and information asymmetry. While we find some evidence that asset impairments are associated with decreases in information asymmetry before the financial crisis, during the financial crisis, asset impairments are associated with increases in both measurement uncertainty and information asymmetry.     

Transition Period of Mandated Accounting Changes — Timing of Adoption and Economic Consequences: The Case of SEAS No. 13

This study examines the economics of the timing of adoption of SFAS No. 13, Accounting for Leases by Lessees . We analyzed actual debt contracts of the affected firms to determine whether they were based on GAAP or Non-GAAP accounting rules. We also examined what actions were taken by management to alleviate the negative effects of complying with SFAS No. 13 . The results indicate that late adopters had a higher percentage of debt convenants based on GAAP measures, and that the late adopters would have experienced significant increases in closeness to default had they adopted SFAS No. 13 early. The results also indicate that by choosing late adoption, the firms were able to reduce the expected negative effects of the new accounting standard on financial statements.     

Brechas de ingresos entre migrantes en los países del Consejo de Cooperación del Golfo. ¿Percepciones de los empleadores o costos de oportunidad?

Se analizan las diferencias de ingresos entre migrantes calificados occidentales, árabes y asiáticos del sector privado en los países del Consejo de Cooperación del Golfo de 2012 a 2014. Utilizando dos métodos de descomposición estándar, se investiga si las percepciones de los empleadores son la causa de la prima salarial de los occidentales. Según los resultados, de un tercio a tres cuartos de la brecha de ingresos reales por hora son atribuibles a las características relacionadas con la productividad, y el resto a los mayores costos de oportunidad. El efecto potencial de las percepciones no observadas resulta no significativo.     

Explaining the democracy deficit in the Arab world

This paper strongly corroborates the widely held claim about the democracy and freedom “deficit” in the Arab world and asks the natural question as to why has the Arab world experienced such a deficit. The estimation results of an extended “modernity” model of democracy (measured by the Polity IV global index) suggest that after controlling for a host of economic, social and historical variables a negative and highly significant Arab dummy effect remains. This suggests, therefore, that the modernization theory does not fully account for the democracy deficit of the Arab world. Controlling for the modernity and other determinants, oil is negatively associated with democracy while the net effect of regional conflicts in the Arab world was negative, suggesting that conflicts in the Arab world promote authoritarianism in contrast with other regions where regional wars have been associated with democratic transitions. Moreover, and very significantly the Arab dummy was no longer significant as a stand alone effect though it remains significant when interacted with regional wars.     

Technological choices and unemployment benefits in a matching model with heterogenous workers

This article aims at understanding the interactions between public policies, such as unemployment benefit systems, and firms’ technological choices. For this purpose, we use a matching model in which workers are vertically differentiated and where the nature of jobs is endogenous. We show that an improvement in unemployment benefits leads to an increase in productivity by making agents more selective and jobs more complex. However, the impact on labour market participation is negative.