Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions II

Market cycles play a great role in reinsurance. Cycle transitions are not independent from the claim arrival process: a large claim or a high number of claims may accelerate cycle transitions. To take this into account, a semi-Markovian risk model is proposed and analyzed. A refined Erlangization method is developed to compute the finite-time ruin probability of a reinsurance company. Numerical applications and comparisons to results obtained from simulation methods are given. The impact of dependency between claim amounts and phase changes is studied.     

Compound mixed Poisson distributions I

The concept of compound mixed Poisson distributions in actuarial science is used to represent such variables as the total amount of claims or losses payable by an insurer. In this paper, comprehensive collections of approximate forms are derived for the compound mixed Poisson distribution. The calculations involve use of several special functions and their properties. We believe that the results will serve as an important reference in actuarial science.     

自由现金流及有限注意对上市公司证券投资参与度的影响研究

本文针对我国A股非金融类上市公司参与证券投资的现象,运用管理者自由现金流和有限注意理论,对其动因和管控措施进行详细研究。研究结论表明:当上市公司存在过多的富余现金,资产负债率较低,且主业经营业务收入增长放缓时,上市公司偏好于进行证券投资而博取高风险的价差收益,这也很可能成为上市公司的一种常态选择。为促进上市公司对企业过度证券投资进行有效内部治理,建议上市公司必须要立足企业实际情况,匹配自身战略目标进行合理证券投资,以实现资金流动性满足自身资金管理需求的目标。     

The Postmodern Road to Socialism,After Hayek

The Australian policy of reconciliation between indigenous people and non-indigenous settlers is seen as a precursor to recent American efforts to solve its race relations problems via a policy of racial reconciliation. The empirical context of the problem of racial inequality in Australia is presented and the theoretical context of the Australian reconciliation process is discussed. Described is the concept of white privilege and explained is a context that views American policies on race relations as largely lacking new ideas and viable strategies for remedying racial and ethnic economic inequality. Qualitative findings are discussed based on interviews of Aboriginal and white intellectuals inside and outside Australian universities supporting an optimistic assessment of the likely success of racial reconciliation as a policy instrument in Australia. Less optimism is expressed for the success of that policy in the United States.     

Have the Mobile Coupon Preferences of Millennials Changed?

ABSTRACT

In 2007, the authors delivered a web-based survey to a sampling frame of 18 to 30 year olds. Choice-based conjoint analysis was used to determine their local coupon preferences. The findings indicated that Millennials, in general, were resistant to receiving coupons for local businesses through their cell phones. In this article, the same survey was delivered to a sampling frame of Millennials in 2014. Choice-based conjoint analysis was again used to examine the couponing preferences of Millennials and statistical analysis was conducted to determine if these preferences have significantly changed over the last seven years.     

Understanding the Determinants of User Acceptance of Enterprise Instant Messaging: An Empirical Study

As modern organizations increasingly depend on information systems (IS) to enhance work productivity and seek new business opportunities, communication effectiveness has become one of the key factors that underlie the effective performance of IS implementations and applications. Instant Messaging (IM) presents a revolution in enterprise communication. As more organizations are findings ways to utilize this near-synchronous computing communication technology to enhance communication effectiveness in the workplace, there is a compelling need to understand the factors that are important for the adoption of enterprise IM. We have developed an integrative model based on constructs of the existing IT adoption models as well as theories on motivation, innovation diffusion, and critical mass. Using responses from 140 intended subjects, we have found the results of survey data support the contentions that perceived usefulness, compatibility, enjoyment, and security are significant predictors of intention to use enterprise IM. Although perceived connectivity did not predict the intention directly, it did indirectly through perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. Implications and future research are discussed.     

星载AIS信号的带通采样与恢复

针对卫星接收机对模拟器件性能要求较高的问题,提出直接对接收到的射频信号进行采样,将模拟信号转换成数字信号,后续处理用软件模块实现的方法。同时结合自动识别系统（AIS）本身两个载波频率接近以及带宽较窄的特点,根据Nyquist带通抽样定理实现以较低速率采样来获取船舶状态信息,研究了一种星载AIS信号全数字解调方法和信息检测恢复技术。首先介绍了带通采样原理,其次详细研究了多用户AIS信号采样频率的确定、两个频道信号分离方法以及单通道信号如何下变频为基带信号,其中基带信号检测采用简化的基于Viterbi的非相干检测方法,最后结合AIS协议进行信号的恢复,并通过示波器采集实际船台发送的AIS信号进行了实验,验证了该过程的正确性。     

基于网络层次分析法的区域软实力评价——以江苏省为例

基于国内外软实力研究文献,考虑各指标间的交互影响、指标的数据获取和量化等因素,构建了包括三级指标的区域软实力评价指标体系,并利用网络层次分析法对江苏省的软实力进行评价。研究结果表明:江苏省的综合软实力排名为全国第二,这主要得益于其区域文化、科技创新能力以及和谐度的排名靠前,而扩散度、人口素质、区域环境以及公共服务的得分偏低。据此提出强化江苏省综合软实力的相应措施:应进一步强化各类传媒的扩散作用、完善公共服务体制以及优化投资以及居住环境等。     

氨氮海水质量基准及大辽河口氨氮暴露风险初步分析

搜集筛选了我国海洋生物的25种氨氮急性毒性数据,采用美国水生生物基准技术对氨氮水生生物基准进行推算,得出保护我国海水生物的氨氮急性基准值为0.085 mg·L-1,慢性基准值为0.013 mg·L-1,并利用荷兰基准技术对该计算结果进行验证,结果表明与美国基准技术方法比较接近。应用获得的氨氮基准值对大辽河口进行氨氮暴露风险分析,结果表明,13个站位均存在一定的生态风险,季节对氨氮暴露浓度水平具有重要影响,枯水期氨氮暴露风险显著大于丰水期,呈现数量级差异。大辽河口水体氨氮暴露浓度对水生生物的胁迫风险顺序为腔肠动物＞甲壳动物＞鱼类＞软体动物＞环节动物。研究结论可为氨氮水质标准制定和河口水环境管理提供技术支持。     

旅游项目投资资本介入研究——基于委托代理理论的视角

旅游项且投资的资本介入问题存在两层委托代理关系。其一是人民委托地方政府。其二为地方政府委托外部资本进行项目投资建设和经营,在此过程中,委托代理理论的逆向选择和道德风险问题相继出现,导致地方政府短视行为及寻租行为、外部资本对生态自然环境的破坏、对企业财务及投资信息的操控以及借旅游开发之名进行房地产开发等行为．基于委托代理理论,建议：优化地方政府旅游项目投资考核机制,建立科学的旅游资本介入评价指标体系,政府通过土地入股或保留一股黄金股保证对重大决策问题否决权．