Post-truth: an alumni economist’s perspective

ABSTRACT

Drawing upon 50 years as an academic economist, this lecture to alumni of SOAS’s Department of Economics reflects upon the continual ‘post-truth’ aspects of mainstream economics, ranging over its substantive, if shifting, content, and its treatment of methodology and interdisciplinarity. It draws upon a wide range of theory, empirical analysis, policy and anecdote to highlight both the need for alternatives and the continuing, even increased, failure of the mainstream to engage with criticism and alternatives.     

Systematic risk,the tradeoff of leverage and IPO first-day returns

In this paper, we investigate IPO first-day returns in French market. Our focus is to assess the relationship between equity risk, corporate leverage and IPO initial returns. Based on data of 254 French IPOs, traded on Euronext/Alternext markets over the period 2006 and 2016, we find that estimated beta and idiosyncratic volatility are strongly and negatively related to book and market net gearing ratios. We also find that the interaction terms between equity risk measures and corporate leverage ratios are inversely related to IPO first-day returns. In addition, we highlight that industry and macroeconomic environment variables are significant predictors of equity initial returns. Robustness check of our findings indicates less relevant results for corporate leverage when it is estimated as independent variable.

     

What drives fluctuations in exchange rate growth in emerging markets – A multi-level dynamic factor approach

Historically, exchange rates in many emerging economies have been volatile. We use a dynamic hierarchical factor model to investigate the driving forces behind these fluctuations in exchange rate growth and find that in recent years, especially since the Great Recession, the common (world) factor has become more important. We also find that, since 2009, US monetary policy and Chinese economic growth have had much greater effects on emerging market exchange rate growth fluctuations. The historical decomposition indicates that 18.8% and 23% of the variations in the world factor after 2009 can be explained by US monetary policy shock and Chinese industrial production shock, respectively.     

Estimation of Randomisation Mean Square Error in Small Area Estimation

In this article, we propose a new method for estimating the randomisation (design‐based) mean squared error (DMSE) of model‐dependent small area predictors. Analogously to classical survey sampling theory, the DMSE considers the finite population values as fixed numbers and accounts for the MSE of small area predictors over all possible sample selections. The proposed method models the true DMSE as computed for synthetic populations and samples drawn from them, as a function of known statistics and then applies the model to the original sample. Several simulation studies for the linear area‐level model and the unit‐level mixed logistic model illustrate the performance of the proposed method and compare it with the performance of other DMSE estimators proposed in the literature.     

The politics of agrarian change in Bolivia's soy complex

This paper analyses the politics of agrarian change in Bolivia in the context of the development and expansion of the soy complex in Santa Cruz. It attempts to contribute to a better understanding of the nature and role of the state in relation to agrarian change through what is referred to here as the state–society–capital nexus. From an “agrarian” to a “productive” revolution in the countryside, this paper situates the rise of the Movement Toward Socialism (Movimiento al Socialismo, MAS) to state power and its ability to maintain control over the state apparatus by balancing both accumulation and legitimation interests through its neo‐extractivist development strategy. As extractivist rents fall with the commodities bust and smallholders' exclusion becomes more apparent, the MAS' overextension in facilitating capital accumulation is beginning to show signs of a legitimacy crisis. The politics of agrarian change remain as contested as the dynamics within the state–society–capital nexus.     

Social Assistance Amidst the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa: A Policy Assessment

In an attempt to minimise the negative economic impacts of COVID-19 on vulnerable households the South African government allocated R50 billion in additional social assistance spending. The cash transfer package included a temporary increase in existing grants and introduced a new “Covid grant.” We assess the chosen package and compare it with an initial proposal to increase the Child Support Grant (CSG). Coverage, cost and welfare effects are calculated to measure the relative impacts in each case. We find that while a significant increase in the CSG delivers resources most progressively, the addition of the COVID-19 grant may potentially reach a much larger group of otherwise uncovered, vulnerable individuals. Critically, this extended coverage comes at a cost to the poorest households, via additional transfers to the upper income deciles. However, we identify several categories of vulnerable household groups which suggests that the workers most negatively affected by the pandemic are not necessarily those in the poorest households. The paper emphasises that social assistance to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 should not be viewed necessarily as a standard poverty reduction exercise, but rather as an attempt to mitigate COVID-19-related income shocks for the vulnerable who were most negatively affected by the pandemic.     

Forecasting financial distress for French firms: a comparative study

The aim of this paper is to compare three statistical methods predicting corporate financial distress. We use discriminant analysis, logistic regression and random forest (RF) methods. These approaches are evaluated based on a sample of 800 companies, composed of 400 healthy companies and 400 failed companies. This study covers the period from 2006 to 2008 using 33 financial ratios. The results show the superiority of the RF approach, which gives better results in terms of classification. It allows for better forecast accuracy because it minimizes type I and type II errors.     

Inter-firm R&D collaboration within and across national borders

We set up a model to investigate the strategic aspect of a firm's incentive to collaborate in cost-reducing R&D with either a local or a foreign partner. We argue that collaboration with a foreign firm is preferred to collaboration with a local firm if the extra profits generated by a foreign collaboration exceed the additional cost of coordinating collaboration across national borders. We show that foreign collaboration is more likely the bigger the home market size of the foreign firm and, given certain conditions, the higher the international trade cost. We also show that whenever a foreign collaboration arises in equilibrium, it is efficient (i.e., world-welfare-maximising) and that there are cases where (a) a foreign collaboration would be efficient but a local collaboration emerges in equilibrium, and (b) an efficient foreign collaboration emerges in equilibrium, but one of the countries would prefer a local collaboration. We briefly consider the policy implications of these findings.     

Non-linear pricing and the exclusion of consumers

We show that a monopolist practicing non-linear pricing may wish not to sell to an arbitrarily large fraction of the potential market (where this fraction is measured either in terms of the number of consumers, or of profits foregone if he were constrained to price linearly) in order to better discriminate among the remainder.