“Thirlwall’s Law” reconsidered

Thirlwall’s Law is found to be the necessary but not sufficient condition for balanced long-run growth. A simple equation is considered whose empirical analysis could confirm—or reject—the validity of the Law. The analysis, conducted by means of econometric co-integration using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares method applied to data for 59 countries covering the years 1960–2012, suggests that Thirlwall’s Law may not hold for the decisive majority of countries.     

Combining “real effort” with induced effort costs: the ball-catching task

We introduce the “ball-catching task”, a novel computerized task, which combines a tangible action (“catching balls”) with induced material cost of effort. The central feature of the ball-catching task is that it allows researchers to manipulate the cost of effort function as well as the production function, which permits quantitative predictions on effort provision. In an experiment with piece-rate incentives we find that the comparative static and the point predictions on effort provision are remarkably accurate. We also present experimental findings from three classic experiments, namely, team production, gift exchange and tournament, using the task. All of the results are closely in line with the stylized facts from experiments using purely induced values. We conclude that the ball-catching task combines the advantages of real effort tasks with the use of induced values, which is useful for theory-testing purposes as well as for applications.     

Competitive search markets for durable goods

Summary. This paper considers a dynamic version of Akerlof's (1970) lemons problem where buyers and sellers must engage in search to find a trading partner. We show that if goods are durable, the market itself may provide a natural sorting mechanism. In equilibrium, high-quality goods sell at a higher price than low-quality goods but also circulate longer. This accords with the common wisdom that sellers who want to sell fast may have to accept a lower price. We then compare the equilibrium outcomes under private information with those under complete information. Surprisingly, we find that for a large range of parameter values the quilibrium outcomes under the two information regimes coincide, despite the fact that circulation time is used to achieve separation. Received: August 24, 2000; revised version: October 24, 2000     

Illustrating the importance of Austrian business cycle theory: A reply to Murphy,Barnett, and Block; A call for quantitative study

Murphy et al. (2009) criticize Young’s (2005) test of Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) using US industry-level quarterly job reallocation data and the federal funds rate as a monetary policy indicator. I argue that not only are Murphy et al.’s specific criticisms misguided; more importantly, they all but completely rule out the type of empirical study that Young (2005) advocates: specifically, one that (1) is quantitative and distinguishes between statistical and economic significance and (2) attempts to exploit a hypothesis that is both a prediction of ABCT and not a prediction of competing monetary theories of the cycle. I argue that empirical studies embodying (1) and (2) are critical to ABCT as a research program. Furthermore, I review the existing econometric studies of ABCT from the last 10 years and conclude that there is much room for improvement along these lines.     

A quantitative explanation of the low productivity in South–Eastern European economies: the role of misallocations

It is well known that southeast Europe is the least developed area in Europe. Using a methodology based on the idea of heterogeneous firms, this paper studies the degree to which firm heterogeneity and resource misallocation can explain the lower TFP in southeast Europe. The results show a significant degree of heterogeneity and resource misallocation, although the results are sensitive to the calibration used. There is evidence that firm-level productivity depends on firm size, while taxation negatively influences it. There is also some evidence that foreign-owned firms are more competitive, as are exporting firms. Results are generally robust across the various specifications used, but less so relative to the measure of productivity used. Additional evidence suggests that infrastructure-related obstacles as well as institutional instability drive the output distortion, while no factor is underlined as a significant driver of capital distortions, suggesting the need for better data sources for the latter.     

Capital liquidity and residents’ consumption decision: An asymmetry analysis of economic prosperity

Among the current literatures that discuss the influence exerted on residents’ consumption behavior by capital liquidity, some often independently decide the demarcation point of the liquidity restriction that affects residents’ consumption behavior, without taking into account when the economy is flourishing whether residents will be influenced by the restriction of the liquidity that their consumption behaviors can not be fully carried out. We introduce a threshold model which varies according to the actual GDP and other financial indicators (money supply, average stock index and balance of bank loans) to discuss residents’ consumption behavior in China under different economic states. The empirical results show that when the economy flourishes or resuscitates, residents’ income of the same period have not notable influence on their consumption, which suggests that residents’ consumption behavior does not considerably change according to the fluctuation of the current income, but conforms with the constant income-life cycle hypothesis. Moreover, two estimated values 0.7504 and 0.8597, as economic boom measures, all fall in the boom stable stage—basically consists with the early-warning index of the macro-economy boom issued by National Bureau of Statistics of China. It shows that the macro-economic boom is not notablely influenced by capital liquidity, so is residents’ consumption behavior.     

Capital asset pricing model in Portugal: Evidence from fractal regressions

We examine risk profiles of the Portuguese stock market index component stocks using a novel approach to the classical capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Specifically, we estimate the CAPM via fractal regressions that allow studying the marginal effects at selected scales. In this way, we can reveal whether the risk is perceived differently by market participants with different investment horizons. Apart from the analysis itself, we provide new statistical insights into the issue of separating and comparing the scale-specific effects with statistical validity. We find several stocks deviating from an expected risk perception homogeneity across investment horizons. This is true for both analysed periods, i.e. before and after the global financial crisis. There are also several stocks that changed their relationship to the market portfolio in between, which has strong implications for possible portfolio construction. The proposed methodology is not limited to financial topics but can be used in any discipline where the scale-specific marginal effects might be of interest.     

Economic reforms,efficiency and productivity in Chinese banking

This paper analyzes the impact of banking reforms on efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) change in Chinese banking industry. Using an input distance function, we find that joint-equity banks are more efficient than wholly state-owned banks (WSOBs). Furthermore, both WSOBs and joint-equity banks are found to be operating slightly below their optimal size, suggesting potential advantages in expansion of their businesses. Overall, TFP growth was 4.4% per annum for the sample period 1993–2002. Joint-equity banks experienced much higher growth in TFP (5.5% per annum) compared to the WSOBs (1.4% per annum).