To Spend the U.S. Government Surplus or to Increase the Deficit? A Numerical Analysis of the Policy Options

This paper provides a numerical analysis of the likely benefits from adopting alternative ways of reducing the projected fiscal surplus (as of the summer 2001) in the United States economy. Calibrating a small growth model, our results suggest that investing the surplus in public capital is likely to yield the greatest long-run welfare gains, although decreasing the capital income tax is only marginally inferior. Both these options dominate increasing government consumption expenditure or decreasing the tax on labor income. By shifting resources from consumption toward capital the two superior policies involve sharp intertemporal tradeoffs in welfare; significant short-run welfare losses are more than compensated by large long-run welfare gains. By contrast, the two inferior options are gradually welfare-improving through time. A crucial factor in determining the benefits of reducing the government surplus through spending is the size of the government sector relative to the social optimum. We find that the second-best optimum is to increase both forms of government expenditure to their respective social optima, while at the same time restructuring taxes by reducing the tax on capital and raising the tax on wage income to achieve the targeted reduction in the surplus. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 405–435. Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; and Department of Economics, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia, Atlanta, Georgia. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E62, O41.     

Does late 10K filing impact companies’ financial reporting strategy? Evidence from discretionary accruals and real transaction management

The study investigates how late 10K filers adapt their financial reporting strategy in the post‐late filing period in their response to bad publicity, negative market sentiment, and higher stakeholders’ scrutiny resulting from reporting delays. Both the level and change regressions show that late 10K filers significantly reduce the use of discretionary accruals from pre‐ to post‐late filing year. However, they simultaneously increase real transaction management over the same time period. The trade‐offs between the two earnings management techniques are more prominent when the late filers have a strong incentive to meet or beat earnings benchmarks. Our primary results are robust when late filings are caused by accounting, auditing, and internal control issues, and when the late filers cited no meaningful reason for late 10K filings. It is further evident that late filers with material internal control weaknesses and late filers that subsequently restate their financial statements make relatively higher trade‐offs than the matched non‐late filers. Finally, the trade‐offs between reduced accruals and increased real transaction management are stronger for the accelerated filers, and for the late filers audited by Big 4 auditors.     

Strategic competition and optimal parallel import policy

Abstract In a two‐country Hotelling type duopoly model of price competition, we show that parallel import (PI) policy can act as an instrument of strategic trade policy. The home firm’s profit is higher when it cannot price discriminate internationally if and only if the foreign market is sufficiently bigger than the domestic one. The key mechanism in the model is that the home firm’s incentive to keep its domestic price close to the optimal monopoly price affects its behavior during price competition abroad. We also analyze the welfare implications of PI policies and show that our key insights extend to quantity competition.     

CEO tenure and audit pricing

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We examine the relationship between CEO tenure and audit fees. After controlling for client and auditor attributes in the analyses, we find that...     

US oil companies’ earnings management in response to hurricanes Katrina and Rita

This study examines earnings management by US-based oil companies in the period immediately after the impact of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. We show that large petroleum refining firms – but not the smaller crude oil and natural gas production companies – recorded significant abnormal income-decreasing accruals in the fiscal quarter immediately after the impact of hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Q4 of 2005). In addition, we show that these results are driven by abnormal current accruals. Prior studies show that some firms respond to periods of heightened political scrutiny by recording abnormal income-decreasing accruals (e.g. [Cahan, S., 1992. The effect of antitrust investigation on discretionary accruals: a refined test of the political cost hypothesis. The Accounting Review 67 (1), 77–96; Han, J., Wang, S., 1998. Political costs and earnings management of oil companies during the 1990 Persian Gulf Crisis. The Accounting Review 73 (1), 103–118]). Our results add to this stream of research by examining a political cost-increasing event that occurred after the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) of 2002. The results suggest that in the post-SOX period managers continue to engage in income-decreasing earnings management during periods of heightened political cost sensitivity, at least in the case of large petroleum refining firms.     

Value-relevance of pension transition adjustments and other comprehensive income components in the adoption year of SFAS No. 158

In the present study, we examine the value-relevance of pension transition adjustments and other comprehensive income (OCI) components in the initial adoption year of Statement of Financial Accounting Standard (SFAS) 158—Employers’ Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postretirement Plans. Using a sample of 697 Standard and Poor (S&P) firms with the fiscal year ending on December 31, 2006, we perform several cross-sectional regression analyses to test the value-relevance of transition adjustments and OCI components in presence of various earnings measures. The results indicate that there is a negative relationship between both the level and change in stock returns and the magnitude of pension transition adjustments. We also find earnings measures and some OCI components are significantly associated with stock returns. When analyzed separately, we find our main results are mostly confined to the sample large S&P 500 firms. We do not find any result for the S&P mid-cap and small-cap firms. The overall results suggest the stock market negatively reacts to the adverse impact of SFAS #158 pension transition adjustments on net worth and future cash flows when the impact is substantial in its magnitude in dollar terms. The study further provides useful insight into the information processing by documenting that the market evaluates accounting information more effectively when such information is recognized in the financial statements rather than disclosed only in the financial footnotes.     

Managerial overconfidence,ability, firm-governance and audit fees

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Prior studies document that managerial overconfidence potentially increases the risk of financial misstatements, and that overconfident managers...     

Stochastic growth with short-run prediction of shocks

We study a variation of the one-sector stochastic optimal growth model with independent and identically distributed shocks where agents acquire information that enables them to accurately predict the next period??s productivity shock (but not shocks in later periods). Optimal policy depends on the forthcoming shock. A ??better?? predicted realization of the shock that increases both marginal and total product always increases next period??s optimal output. We derive conditions on the degree of relative risk aversion and the elasticity of marginal product under which optimal investment increases or decreases with a better shock. Under fairly regular restrictions, optimal outputs converge in distribution to a unique invariant distribution whose support is bounded away from zero. We derive explicit solutions to the optimal policy for three well-known families of production and utility functions and use these to show that volatility of output, sensitivity of output to shocks, and expected total investment may be higher or lower than in the standard model where no new information is acquired over time; the limiting steady state may also differ significantly from that in the standard model.     

Dynamic sorting in durable goods markets with buyer heterogeneity

In a competitive dynamic durable good market where sellers have private information about quality, I identify certain inefficiencies that arise due to heterogeneity in buyers' valuations. Even if the market induces dynamic sorting among sellers and all goods are eventually traded, inefficiency can arise because high valuation buyers buy early when low‐quality goods are sold, while high‐quality goods are allocated to low valuation buyers that buy later. This misallocation adds to the inefficiency caused by delay in trading. Under certain circumstances, high‐quality goods may never be traded as in a static market.     

The dual nature of public goods and congestion: the role of fiscal policy revisited

Abstract The role of fiscal policy is examined when public goods provide both productive and utility services. In the presence of congestion, the consumption tax is shown to be distortionary. Optimal fiscal policy involves using consumption‐based instruments in conjunction with the income tax. An income tax‐financed increase in government spending dominates both lump‐sum and consumption tax‐financing. Replacing the lump‐sum tax with an income tax to finance a given level of spending dominates introducing an equivalent consumption tax. These results contrast sharply with the literature, where the consumption tax is generally viewed as the least distortionary source of public finance.