Scope,timing and strategic adjustment in emerging markets: Manufacturer strategies and the case of MRI

This study examines the realized strategies of all domestic manufacturers in a growing, high technology, industrial market characterized by high levels of regulatory, demand, and technological uncertainty. These manufacturers have behaved quite differently and experienced varying levels of success in the market. A typology of entry strategies grounded in an intensive analysis of these data is presented. Specifically, it addresses the timing and scope of a firm's entry into the market, strategic adjustments over time, and the impact of these decisions on the firm's performance. It is proposed that these strategies represent trade-offs between the risks of resource commitment and competitive preemption. Specific, testable hypotheses based on this typology are also provided.     

Friction in the trading process and the estimation of systematic risk

This paper considers how estimates of the market model beta parameter can be biased by friction in the trading process (information, decision, and transaction costs) that (a) leads to a distinction between observed and ‘true’ returns; (b) causes observed returns to be generated asynchronously for a set of interdependent securities; and (c) thereby introduces serial cross-correlation into security returns. Several propositions are derived from which consistent estimators of beta are obtained, and the effect of differencing interval length on beta estimates is specified. The formulation is contrasted with the related analyses of Scholes-Williams (1977) and Dimson (1979).     

International Telecom Settlements: Gaming Incentives, Carrier Alliances and Pareto-Superior Reform

Liberalized countries that allow competition in international telecommunications favor traffic re-routing practices as arbitrage against foreign monopolists. This view is seriously incomplete. Monopolists, allied with carriers in liberalized countries, can use these practices to reduce termination payments to nonalliance carriersöthereby harming also consumers in liberalized countriesöby gaming regulations that require equal termination rates at both ends and 'proportional return' (the monopolist's traffic is allocated among carriers in proportion to their shares of traffic to its country). We also present a simple bilateral settlements reform that eliminates gaming incentives and other proportional-return distortions, yet benefits both countries.     

Optimal exploration investments under price and geological‐technical uncertainty: a real options model

This article develops a real options model for valuing natural resource exploration investments (e.g. oil or copper) when there is joint price and geological‐technical uncertainty. After a successful several‐stage exploration phase, there is a development investment and an extraction phase. All phases are optimized contingent on price and geological‐technical uncertainty.
Several real options are considered. There are flexible investment schedules for all exploration stages and a timing option for the development investment. Once the mine is developed, there are closure, opening and abandonment options for the extraction phase. Our model maintains a relatively simple valuation structure by collapsing price and geological‐technical uncertainty into a one‐factor model.
We apply the model to a copper exploration prospect and find that a significant fraction of total project value is due to the operational, development and exploration options available to project managers.     

High Stakes Decision Making: Normative,Descriptive and Prescriptive Considerations

This paper reviews the state of the art of research on individual decision-making in high-stakes, low-probability settings. A central theme is that resolving high-stakes decisions optimally poses a formidable challenge not only to naïve decision makers, but also to users of more sophisticated tools, such as decision analysis. Such decisions are difficult to make because precise information about probabilities is not available, and the dynamics of the decision are complex. When faced with such problems, naïve decision-makers fall prey to a wide range of potentially harmful biases, such as failing to recognize a high-stakes problem, ignoring the information about probabilities that does exist, and responding to complexity by accepting the status quo. A proposed agenda for future research focuses on how the process and outcomes of high-stakes decision making might be improved.     

The Law and Economics of Costly Contracting

In most of the contract theory literature, contracting costsare assumed either to be high enough to preclude certain formsof contracting or low enough to permit any contract to be written.Similarly researchers usually treat renegotiation as eithercostless or prohibitively costly. This article addresses themiddle ground between these extremes, in which the costs ofcontracting and renegotiation can take intermediate values andthe contracting parties can themselves influence these costs.The context for our analysis is the canonical problem of inducingefficient relation-specific investment and efficient ex posttrade. Among our principle results are: (i) The efficiency andcomplexity of the initial contract are decreasing in the costto create a contract. Hence the best mechanism design contractscan be too costly to write. (ii) When parties use the simplercontract forms, they require renegotiation to capture ex postsurplus and to create efficient investment incentives. In somecases, parties want low renegotiation costs. More interestingis that, in other cases, parties have a strict preference formoderate renegotiation costs. (iii) The effect of contract lawon contract form is significant but has been overlooked. Inparticular, the law's interpretive rules raise the cost of enforcingcomplex contracts, and thus induce parties to use simple contracts.Worse, the law also lowers renegotiation costs, which furtherundermines complex contracts and is also inappropriate for someof the simpler contracts.     

Why clashes between internal and external stability goals end in currency crises, 1797–1994

We argue that recent currency crises reflect clashes between fundamentals and pegged exchange rates, just as did crises in the past. We reject the view that crises reflect self-fulfilling prophecies that are not closely related to measured fundamentals. Doubts about the timing of a market attack on a currency are less important than the fact that it is bound to happen if a government's policies are inconsistent with pegged exchange rates. We base these conclusions on a review of currency crises in the historical record under metallic monetary regimes and of crises post-World War II under Bretton Woods, and since, in European and Latin American pegged exchange rate regimes.     

Privatisation in the Transitional Economies of Central and Eastern Europe: Issues and Progress

Privatisation is pivotal to economic progress in the transitional economies of Central and Eastern Europe. But given the limited stock of domestic savings, speedy changes in ownership most probably rely on voucher schemes under which shares are distributed to the population as a whole. The problem is how to ensure that corporate governance is effective, and that restructuring occurs, when privatisation takes this form.     

The determinants of bond call premia: A signalling approach

A signalling model is presented that provides an additional explanation for the determination of call premia on corporate bonds. It is shown that firms may signal their exclusive information about their probability of default by the choice of their call premia. Stockholders of safer firms (i.e., those that have a lower probability of bankruptcy) have a higher incentive for providing a low call premium. This occurs because the call option will be valuable only if the firm survives by the first call date. This event, however, is more likely for the safer firm. The safer firm will therefore be more willing to sacrifice some current revenues (or equivalently, to provide a higher coupon than it would otherwise have to pay in order to sell the bond at par) by determining a lower call premium. The model therefore predicts a negative correlation between safety and call premia, a correlation that has been empirically confirmed by Fischer, Heinkel, and Zechner (1989). This correlation provides support to the signalling theory vis-à-vis the alternative explanation of taxes determining the call premia. Another contribution of this model is that it ties the call premium decision with expectations of future interest rates. Such expectations are considered important by practitioners, but were rarely considered in previous research.     

The implications of South Africa's skills migration policy for country competitiveness

South Africa suffers from a shortage of skills, while at the same time having an excess of unskilled labour. The brain drain and the impact of HIV/Aids are threats to the current skills level in the labour force. Skilled workers generally create jobs for unskilled workers, and the level of skills in the labour force is an attraction for foreign investment. The new international migration policy imposes financial penalties and other restrictions on employers of foreigners with skills. The policy is detrimental to South Africa's competitiveness in the global economy and will deter investors and those needing to utilise skills not available in the South African labour market. A general immigration policy would be more appropriate to attract skilled foreigners to South Africa, where their skills can be absorbed into the labour force by supply and demand forces.