Convergence within the EU: Evidence from Interest Rates

The economic and political changes which are taking place in Europe affect interest rates. This paper develops a two-factor model for the term structure of interest rates specially designed to apply to EMU countries. In addition to the participant country's short-term interest rate, we include as a second factor a 'European' short-term interest rate. We assume that the 'European' rate follows a mean reverting process. The domestic interest rate also follows a mean reverting process, but its convergence is to a stochastic mean which is identified with the 'European' rate. Closed-form solutions for prices of zero coupon discount bonds and options on these bonds are provided. A special feature of the model is that both the domestic and the European interest rate risks are priced. We also discuss an empirical estimation focusing on the Spanish bond market. The 'European' rate is proxied by the ecu's interest rate. Through a comparison of the performance of our convergence model with a Vasicek model for the Spanish bond market, we show that our model provides a better fit both in-sample and out-of sample and that the difference in performance between the models is greater the longer the maturity of the bonds.
(J.E.L.: E43, C510).     

The Russian Default

This article argues that the international financial markets' massive involvement in Russia had at best a limited basis in developments in the real economy, while financial inflows from the West both enabled and encouraged Russia to avoid the restructuring which lies behind the economic recovery elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe. The best hope for a positive future for Russia is to allow many Russian banks and firms to go bankrupt and to change the nature of foreign financing. Liberal reforms could then be pursued with a clean slate. However, the author sees little likelihood of either of these happening.     

Managerial markets in transition in Central and Eastern Europe: a field study and implications

In this paper, we report findings from the first comprehensive study of managerial labour markets in Central and Eastern Europe, drawing on field data from 157 firms in six countries. Results indicated widespread and deep changes occurring in the region’s managerial markets. Despite differences among countries in reform and economic performance, we found these particular changes to be surprisingly common across the countries studied. They included rapid rises in salary and benefit levels, narrowing of some skill gaps, shifts to more sophisticated methods of recruitment and an overall move towards Western management practices. The study also revealed severe shortages of qualified managers in all the countries studied. The resulting tightness in the managerial labour markets was reducing only modestly, despite other improvements. Foreign and joint-venture firms were relying disproportionately on expatriate managers, and may not have been sufficiently developing locals. We argue that, partly because of this, the distortions in pay, promotions and performance resulting from these tight markets are likely to persist for some time.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Adjusting for the intervalling effect bias in beta: A Test using Paris Bourse Data

This paper uses a sample of daily returns data from the Paris Bourse to test the predictions of and adjustment procedures implied by the Cohen-Hawawini-Maier-Schwartz-Whitcomb (1983a,b) model of the intervalling effect bias in OLS beta estimates. CHMSW show that the bias diminishes asymptotically to zero as the differencing interval increases and that the sign of the bias depends on a stock's relative value of shares outstanding. We employ the three-pass regression procedure of CHMSW (1983b), but we test a broader set of second pass functional forms and use the Box-Cox (1964) transformation model to verify our chosen form. The CHMSW adjustment procedures are compared with that of Scholes-Williams (1977), and the latter is shown to contain a significant intervalling effect bias.     

Wage inequality and the labor market impact of economic transformation: Croatia, 1970–2008

In this paper, we examine wage inequality and wage differentials in Croatia from 1970 to 2008 using two long aggregate time series on the distribution of income. We focus especially on changing income inequality related to educational and vocational attainment, changing income inequality within those groups, and how these two components of inequality were affected by the economic transformation from socialism to capitalism. We find that income inequality between groups rose moderately post-transformation, while overall inequality increased more sharply. This finding is consistent with a growing importance of individual rather than group productivity in labor market compensation, a change broadly consistent with the economic transformation of the Croatian labor market.     

Determinants of GNMA Mortgage Prices

This paper contrasts three different arbitrage-based models for the pricing of GNMA securities, and analyzes the effect of different assumptions about the call policy pursued by the issuers of the underlying mortgages. Both the nature of the interest-rate uncertainty captured by the model and the assumed call policy have a major effect on the yield differentials predicted between GNMA securities and Treasury Bonds.