Progression,Stability, or Decline? Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Change in Specialization Among Birdwatchers

Using a panel of American birdwatchers collected in 1997 and 2002, we tested the extent to which birdwatchers progressed over a five-year period. The impact different career contingencies and life course events had on predicting change in birdwatchers' behavior, skill, and commitment was also examined. Findings indicated that although progression characterized some birdwatchers' participation, involvement by others was better characterized by stability or decline, which was true for each of the indicators used to measure specialization. Career contingencies and life course changes had only a moderate influence on predicting change in the specialization indicators over time. Support from family members and retirement were the best predictors of change in specialization.     

What Would Veblen Say?

It has been more than 100 years since Thorstein Veblen published The Theory of the Leisure Class (TLC). The book was a scathing attack on the greedy leisure class of his day and described how people used wealth to elevate their social position in society. Surprisingly, few researchers use this book to understand leisure in contemporary society. TLC remains as relevant today as it did when first published. In this essay I elucidate some of Veblen's ideas and show how they shed light on leisure spending, emulation among birdwatchers, our display of books, boundary maintenance and social distance, and environmental destruction.     

Network science: A Review Focused on Tourism

This paper presents a review of the methods of the science of networks with an application to the field of tourism studies. The basic definitions and computational techniques are described and a case study (Elba, Italy) used to illustrate the effect of network typology on information diffusion. A static structural characterization of the network formed by destination stakeholders is derived from stakeholder interviews and website link analysis. This is followed by a dynamic analysis of the information diffusion process within the case destination demonstrating that stakeholder cohesion and adaptive capacity have a positive effect on information diffusion. The outcomes and the implications of this analysis for improving destination management are discussed.     

Risk Management,Corporate Governance,and the Search for Long-Term Investors

This discussion explores a number of ways that more effective risk management, corporate governance, and communication with investors can help companies increase their effciency and long-run value. According to one of the panelists, recent surveys of corporate directors suggest that companies should devote more time and attention to three issues—strategy, risk management, and succession planning—and that strategy and risk are the “flipsides of the same coin.” As the panelist argues, “You can't talk about strategy without talking about what risks you're going to take—and what risks you decide to take has to depend on the core competencies that drive the corporate strategy.” In addition to making risk management a critical part of corporate strategy, another notable recommendation is to communicate a company's strategy and business plan as clearly as possible to investors, with the aim of attracting more sophisticated, long-term shareholders. Contrary to popular belief, such a group may well include some hedge funds and other activist shareholders. According to a newly released report on shareholder activism (produced and cited by another panelist), corporate boards should work harder to identify and engage the “largest 10 shareholders in the organization,” with the ultimate goal of cultivating a shareholder base that buys into the company's strategy.     

Combining forecasts: An application to elections

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four election forecasting methods: poll projections, expert judgment, quantitative models, and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Across the six elections, the resulting combined forecasts were more accurate than any individual component method, on average. The gains in accuracy from combining increased with the numbers of forecasts used, especially when these forecasts were based on different methods and different data, and in situations involving high levels of uncertainty. Such combining yielded error reductions of between 16% and 59%, compared to the average errors of the individual forecasts. This improvement is substantially greater than the 12% reduction in error that had been reported previously for combining forecasts.     

Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task

We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 participants (11 groups per method) who were required to solve a quantitative judgment task that did not involve distributed knowledge. This task consisted of ten factual questions, which required percentage estimates. While we did not find statistically significant differences in accuracy between the four methods overall, the results differed somewhat at the individual question level. Delphi was as accurate as FTF for eight questions and outperformed FTF for two questions. By comparison, prediction markets did not outperform FTF for any of the questions and were inferior for three questions. The relative performances of nominal groups and FTF were mixed and the differences were small. We also compared the results from the three structured approaches to prior individual estimates and staticized groups. The three structured approaches were more accurate than participants’ prior individual estimates. Delphi was also more accurate than staticized groups. Nominal groups and prediction markets provided little additional value relative to a simple average of the forecasts. In addition, we examined participants’ perceptions of the group and the group process. The participants rated personal communications more favorably than computer-mediated interactions. The group interactions in FTF and nominal groups were perceived as being highly cooperative and effective. Prediction markets were rated least favourably: prediction market participants were least satisfied with the group process and perceived their method as the most difficult.     

Performance evaluation of National Football League teams

Most recent empirical analyses of production in the sports economic literature have focused on Major League Baseball. This paper extends that literature by analysing football production in the National Football League (NFL). Using the Poisson regression model, we measure the performance of NFL teams and head coaches. The measure is based on a production process where player skills are converted into games won. The evidence reveals that quality coaching is an important component in the production process. It appears that efficient coaching can account for an additional three to four victories in a given season. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

House arrest: the effects of underwater and low-equity mortgages on small business failure and mobility

This paper studies the effects of the recent housing crash on small business survival and household geographic mobility. Although a number of other works have studied these issues, our analysis differs from these because we do not focus only on underwater mortgages (less than 0% home equity), but also those slightly above water (0-10% equity). Homeowners with little or no equity face considerable constraints regarding moving, starting a business or keeping a current business open. They are more like underwater homeowners, but they differ enough to deserve a separate categorization in comparative studies, rather than being conflated with all other homeowners that have positive equity. We use the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances panel data for 2007 and 2009, which allows us to track the exact same households during this critical time in the housing crisis.