Forecasting Foreign Exchange Markets Using Google Trends: Prediction Performance of Competing Models

Abstract

Foreign exchange markets affect a variety of humans and businesses worldwide and there is a wide array of literature aimed at providing more accurate forecasts of their movement. In an attempt to quantify human expectations, Google query search terms related to foreign exchange markets are used to help explain and predict foreign exchange rates between the United States’ dollar and ten other currencies during the time period of January 2004 and August 2018. We find evidence that, while Google Trends can be helpful in prediction, it is necessary to implement some sort of shrinkage or sparsity scheme on the coefficients.     

Entrepreneurial ecosystems and the lifecycle of university business incubators: An integrative case study

University business incubators (UBIs) are an important part of the ecosystem that supports entrepreneurial activities and economic development. Extant research has focused on examining UBI activities at a single point in time, but there is a paucity of theoretical and empirical work aimed at understanding the forces that explain why and how UBIs change over time. This is an important gap because establishing a university business incubator does not assure its development and growth. We address this issue by drawing upon the Fisher et al. Academy of Management Review, 41(3), 383-409 (2016) Identity-Legitimacy-Life Cycle model to explain how the pursuit of resources and organizational legitimacy shapes the development of UBIs along key strategic and operational dimensions, which has implications for performance evaluation over time. We illustrate with a case study about the creation and evolution of the DMZ, a leading UBI at Ryerson University in Canada. This case provides new insights about the dynamics of UBIs and their relationships with the entrepreneurial ecosystems in which they are embedded. Implications for future research, management practice, and public policy are discussed.

     

Mergers with interfirm bundling: a case of pharmaceutical cocktails

Pharmaceutical cocktails often consist of two or more drugs produced by competing firms. The component drugs are often also sold as stand‐alone products. We analyze the effects of a merger between two pharmaceutical firms selling complements for colorectal cancer treatment. In this setting there are two merger effects: the standard upward pricing pressure due to firms internalizing the substitution between the stand‐alone products, and an additional effect where the firms internalize the impact of selling complements and reduce the price of the cocktail product. The net impact of a merger is a modest price increase, or even a price decrease.     

Market Interaction and Pro-Social Behavior: An Experimental Study

When actions generate negative externalities for third parties, incentives exist to pass these “morally costly” decisions to others. In laboratory experiments, we investigate how market interaction affects allocations when the right to divide a sum of money between oneself and a passive recipient is commoditized. Allocation to recipients is reduced by more than half when determined by subjects who purchase or keep the right to make the division as compared to a control where subjects are directly assigned the right. Sellers report accurate beliefs about recipient allocations and do not report feeling less responsible the more often they sell the allocation right. The market allocates the right to make divisions more frequently to buyers who allocate more to recipients, but sellers who allocate less to recipients tend to sell less often. Selection cannot solely explain the results, suggesting market interaction itself may directly impact behavior.     

Paradoxical effects of tourism ethnocentrism on domestic tourism: The moderating effect of pandemic anxiety travel

This research findings to study the impact of socio-psychological, economic, and political antecedents on tourism and to study the relationship among tourism ethnocentrism (TE), civilized tourism behavioral intention, willingness to visit, and electronic-word of mouth. Also, it examines the moderating role of pandemic anxiety variables. The results show that American socio-psychological and political antecedents are factors that directly affect TE and have a significant effect on travelers who are insecure about traveling due to the pandemic. Travelers affected by socio-psychological and political antecedents were found to have higher TE and higher travel anxiety due to the pandemic. Therefore, this study suggests the need to strengthen people's patriotism and pride in their country to activate domestic tourism, which should be used as a tourism marketing material to promote domestic travel post-pandemic.     

Discussion of “The Consequences of Audit‐Related Earnings Revisions”

We organize our discussion of Haislip, Myers, Scholz, and Seidel (2017) (hereafter HMSS) around three areas: managing auditor business risk, a lack of auditor competence as an alternative story to auditors acting independently for their results, and drawing inferences from archival vis‐à‐vis experimental studies. We conclude our discussion by arguing that the investigation by HMSS sets the stage for future research concerning why earnings revisions occur and why auditors and CFOs appear to bear adverse consequences when they do occur.     

Investigating the Effects of Gender on Consumers’ Moral Philosophies and Ethical Intentions

Using information collected from a convenience sample of graduate and undergraduate students affiliated with a Midwestern university in the United States, this study determined the extent to which gender (defined as sex differences) is related to consumers’ moral philosophies and ethical intentions. Multivariate and univariate results indicated that women were more inclined than men to utilize both consequence-based and rule-based moral philosophies in questionable consumption situations. In addition, women placed more importance on an overall moral philosophy than did men, and women had higher intentions to behave ethically. The marketing and practical implications of these findings are discussed, and the limitations of the research are presented along with several suggestions for future inquiry, which could advance current understanding of consumer ethics.     

Positive Job Response and Ethical Job Performance

Although many studies have linked job attitudes and intentions to aspects of in-role and extra-role job performance, there has been relatively little attention given to such job responses in the context of employees’ ethical/unethical behavior. The purpose of this study was to investigate a possible relationship between positive job response (conceptualized as job satisfaction and intention to stay) and behavioral ethics. Ninety-two matched manager-employee pairs from a regional branch of a large financial services and banking firm completed survey instruments, with each employee providing information about his or her job attitudes and intentions and each manager assessing the ethical/unethical performance of his/her employees. Respondents also provided additional information required for our analyses. The results indicated that positive job response among subordinates was associated with higher supervisory ratings of the subordinates’ ethical job performance. The managerial implications of the findings for managing ethical behavior are explored.     

Role Conflict,Mindfulness, and Organizational Ethics in an Education-Based Healthcare Institution

Role conflict occurs when a job possesses inconsistent expectations incongruent with individual beliefs, a situation that precipitates considerable frustration and other negative work outcomes. Increasing interest in processes that reduce role conflict is, therefore, witnessed. With the help of information collected from a large sample of individuals employed at an education-based healthcare institution, this study identified several factors that might decrease role conflict, namely mindfulness and organizational ethics. In particular, the results indicated that mindfulness was associated with decreased role conflict, and that perceived ethical values and a shared ethics code were associated with decreased role conflict and increased mindfulness. Despite the study’s limitations, these findings imply that companies might better manage role conflict through the development of mindfulness and organizational ethics.     

What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio

We apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to the housing market in 23 US metropolitan areas, the four Census regions, and the nation from 1975 to 2007. The model allows the rent–price ratio at each date to be split into the expected present discounted values of rent growth, real interest rates, and a housing premium over real rates. We show that housing premia are variable and forecastable and account for a significant fraction of rent–price ratio volatility at the national and local levels, and that covariances among the three components damp fluctuations in rent–price ratios. Thus, explanations of house-price dynamics that focus only on interest rate movements and ignore these covariances can be misleading. These results are similar to those found for stocks and bonds.