Forecasting the Australian economy with DSGE and BVAR models

Reflecting the importance of commodities for the Australian economy, we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Australian economy with a commodity sector. We assess whether its forecasts can be improved by using it as a prior for an empirical Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR). We find that the forecasts from the BVAR tend to be more accurate than those from the DSGE model. Nevertheless, for output growth these forecasts do not outperform benchmark models, such as a small open economy BVAR estimated using the standard priors for forecasting. A Bayesian factor augmented vector autoregression produces the most accurate near-term inflation forecasts.     

Benchmarks in the spotlight: The impact on exchange traded markets

The Fix for precious metals is a global pricing benchmark that provides pricing and liquidity provision for market participants. We exploit the gradual change in the century old auction process to quantify the efficiencies related to more transparent pricing. Our focus is in the market impact of this change on exchange listed products. We find that reforms to the Fix have reduced quoted and effective bid-ask spreads and improved overall market depth. The results imply a positive spillover effect stemming from timelier and more accurate pricing information. The conditions under which we observe the benefits from transparency are related to product liquidity and the degree of market segmentation.     

Hepatocellular carcinoma: Prospective assessments of the T-factor with CT,US, and MR imaging

The capabilities of computed tomography (CT), ultrasonography (US), and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging were studied in order to determine the role of each of these noninvasive examinations for estimating the T-factor of hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs). Fifty-one patients with surgically proven HCCs received CT (50 patients), US (46 patients), and MR (44 patients). The images of CT, US, and MR were prospectively evaluated for main tumor size, intrahepatic metastases, and vascular invasion, which compose the T-factor of HCC, and compared to pathological results. The sizes of the main tumor were estimated correctly by all examinations. For estimating intrahepatic metastases, US (74%) and MR (73%) were superior to CT (65%). For estimating portal invasion, CT (79%) was superior to US (70%) and MR (66%), because CT could demonstrate the segmental staining caused by portal invasion. The estimates of hepatic venous invasion were difficult during any of the examinations. We conclude that presurgical evaluations of the T-factor require the use of US and CT or MR and CT.     

Ireland's Experiments with Pseudo-Keynesianism

How stands the Irish economy? Sean Barrett of Trinity College, Dublin examines the economic problems facing Mr Haughey's government.     

Aviation and the Pursuit of Contestability

Pro-contestability policies are required to promote efficient airlines. The problem is acute in Europe where protectionist policies have led to high-fare, low-profit, low-productivity airlines and a steady loss of market than of world aviation to the low-cost profitable airlines of the Asia-Pacific region.     

The perilous effects of capability loss on outsourcing management and performance

The outsourcing of manufacturing activities and business processes has emerged as a prevalent business practice in many industries. Given this state, the lackluster performance of an alarmingly high proportion of outsourcing initiatives is somewhat surprising. In an effort to achieve aggressive cost savings objectives, many outsourcing engagements are associated with organizational resources being disposed of which can lead to a significant operational capability loss on the part of the outsourcing firm. Surprisingly little empirical research has dealt with the issues arising from this capability loss frequently associated with outsourcing. This study strives to address this void. Drawing on multiple theoretical perspectives, this study investigates the direct impact that capability loss has on outsourcing performance, and also the impact it has on the outsourcing firm's ability to effectively manage its relationship with the outsourcing provider. Results from our hierarchical regression analysis on 198 outsourcing initiatives suggest an inadequate capability evaluation up front can lead to a more substantive capability loss. Subsequently, we find that a more extensive capability loss has a direct negative effect on outsourcing performance. Prior studies have established the significant positive effect that developing a committed and cooperative relationship with the provider has on outsourcing performance. Our results corroborate these previous findings, and also demonstrate that capability loss inhibits the outsourcing firm's efforts to develop a committed and cooperative relationship with the outsourcing provider.     

The twilight of the setter? Public school budgets in a time of institutional change

We use a policy change that occurred in Oregon in the late 1980s to re‐visit the budget‐maximizing agenda setter theory of local public expenditure. Prior to 1987, Oregon school districts held operating levy elections with an exogenous, often zero or very low, spending reversion. From 1987 through 1990, districts experienced a “safety net” regime where the reversion was at least the previous year's nominal spending. We find that the “safety net” sharply limited the agenda setter's ability to use the reversion as a threat to obtain voter approval of relatively large expenditures.     

Airline Travelers' Causal Attribution of Service Failure and Its Impact on Trust and Loyalty Formation: The Moderating Role of Corporate Social Responsibility

This study examines airline travelers' causal attribution (stability and controllability) and its impact on trust and loyalty formation and investigates the moderating role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in this process. Based on a literature review, theoretical relationships between stability, controllability, CSR, trust, and loyalty were derived, and the moderating effects of CSR on relationships between stability/controllability and trust/loyalty were examined. To empirically test these theoretical relationships, quantitative data were collected from 271 airline passengers who experienced a service failure in the past year. The results provide support for effects of stability and controllability on trust as well as the effect of stability on loyalty. In addition, the perception of CSR had positive effects on trust and loyalty. Finally, a favorable CSR perception weakened the negative effects of a service failure on trust and loyalty, particularly when the failure was attributed to a stable cause. The results highlight the important role of CSR in service failure situations and have important implications for airline managers.