Richtungswechsel in den USA — Folgen der neuen Präsidentschaft für die Wirtschaft

Under US President Donald Trump, it can be expected that large tax cuts will be passed and public expenditure will be slightly limited. He correctly identified US deindustrialisation as one of the economy’s core problems. His proposed policy platforms, however, are unpredictable and most likely harmful for the US and world economy. Even more importantly, the new government repeatedly clashes with national and multilateral institutions and thereby challenges the heart of democratically based capitalism. At present, it is still open if Donald Trump’s Executive Orders on trade measures will be backed by the US Congress. In any case, the new US administration is obviously abandoning the general principle of free trade. But the announced changes in US trade and exchange rate policies are less of a fundamental break than is often argued, because cooperation in international economic policy has always been limited and unstable. Beyond trade policy, it seems to be the intention of the new US government to fundamentally change the course of the country with regard to the financial markets. With regard to its monetary policy, the administration’s current position is marked by its inherent inconsistency. However, the new government has several channels through which to influence and fundamentally change the working of the Fed in order to make it more obedient to its goals.     

Verlierer(-regionen) der Globalisierung in Deutschland: Wer? Warum? Was tun?

We describe the impact of globalisation across West German regional labour markets. The main losers are the Ruhr area, the Palatinate and Upper Franconia. The main winning regions are located mainly in Bavaria and Swabonia. The German manufacturing sector at large has gained from rising trade exposure to China and Eastern Europe. This is in sharp contrast to the experience of the United States and some European countries. The German experience could be one reason why the political discussion in this country is less prone towards trade protectionism than elsewhere. But policymakers should take the compensation of losers from globalisation more seriously than in the past.     

Who needs experts most? Board industry expertise and strategic change—a contingency perspective

Research summary: We analyze the effects of board industry expertise on corporate strategic change and the moderating role of institutional quality. We suggest that country‐level contingency factors mitigate the effect of experienced boards on strategy formation by providing alternative sources of information and control in strategic matters. We develop institutional quality as institutional information provision and institutional control provision to test our hypotheses on a sample of firms from MSCI Europe and the S&P 500. Our findings confirm that industry expertise is a salient driver of strategic change across countries. The strength of the effect, however, depends on the institutional quality. We submit that weak institutions require greater board industry expertise as an alternative channel of information and control. Management summary: This study provides new empirical evidence that experience in the firms' industries enables directors to increase strategic change. Our findings show that this effect is even stronger in countries with weak regulatory environments. We hereby provide guidance for multiple stakeholders. First, shareholders seeking a more active adjustment of their firms' strategies may want to compose boards that leverage such experienced directors. Second, directors can use their industry experience to control and to challenge managers better to move beyond the status quo. Third, managers lacking access to information on potential strategic change can use such experienced directors for strategic advice and as a source of information. Overall, we add to the understanding of the corporate board's role in shaping strategy and the influence of weak regulations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Restructuring the credit process: behaviour scoring for german corporates

An instrument for automated monthly credit standing analysis based on data of the corporates current accounts is presented. Different methods of statistics and machine learning are used to develop scoring models for the supervision of debtors. The following methods were selected for model developement:

• Linear Discriminant Analysis
• Pattern Recognition (k‐nearest‐neighbours)
• Genetic Algorithms
• Neural Networks
• Decision Trees

The developed models were compared not only concerning their classification results but also concerning score distribution, transparency and IT‐realisation. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The organizational environment with its measures,antecedents, and consequences: a review and research agenda

The organizational environment is a focal element of multifaceted managerial decisions. Consequently, research has shown a long lasting and still growing interest in investigating the organizational environment and understanding its impact on a firm. Because it is widely assumed that the business environment will become more dynamic, changes in the organizational environment have drawn the particular attention of many scholars. While the extant research has established valuable knowledge, its fragmentation due to differing definitions and contradictory findings calls for a broad review to establish a foundation for future research. By analyzing 279 studies that have investigated different aspects of the organizational environment between 1958 and mid-2017, we contribute to various research streams that involve this environmental factor. We use a comprehensive research framework to categorize and review the previous work. In particular, we distinguish between studies that define or measure the organizational environment, as well as studies that investigate antecedents, outcomes, and moderating effects of the organizational environments. Among those categories, we discuss our findings, before subsequently synthesizing existing works and deriving an agenda for future research.     

Economic reforms and labour markets: policy issues and lessons from Chile

Over the last twenty years sweeping reforms have deeply transformed the labour market in Chile. A visible outcome has been the reduction of Chile's rate of unemployment from 'European' to 'US' levels. Even though the political context makes this experiment special, are there economic lessons to be learnt? This paper concentrates on reforms to job security, on the decentralization of the wage bargaining process, and on the reduction in payroll taxes. It concludes that the reduction of payroll taxes (within the context of the social security reform), and the decentralization of bargaining increased labour market flexibility and contributed to the reduction of unemployment. On the other side, the analysis suggests that the reform on job security had no significant effect on the aggregate rate of unemployment.