How do US options traders “smirk” on China? Evidence from FXI options

In this paper, we study the implied volatility smirk (IVS) of options written on the FXI, the Financial Times Stock Exchange/Xinhua China 50 Index exchange-traded fund (ETF). Using the methodology of Zhang and Xiang (2008, Quant Financ, 8, pp. 263–284), we document the empirical characteristics of the level, slope, and curvature of IVS of the FXI options. We find that, on average, IVS becomes steeper and more convex as time to maturity increases. The level and curvature are usually positive, and the slope is negative. We provide evidence that the information in the quantified IV factors has some predictive power for the future monthly FXI ETF returns.     

Assessing Advertising Effectiveness: The Potential of Goal‐Directed Behavior

Advertising clutter and declining audience attention means advertisers need pretesting to ensure the effectiveness of their advertisements. This study uses, for the first time, a variable‐resolution display to measure viewers’ visual attention to advertising. The display features only the part of an ad that corresponds with the observer's eye gaze with high acuity, whereas the resolution of the other parts reflects the decline in spatial resolution of the human visual system. Participants keep the highest resolution area aligned with their foveal vision using manual cursor movements. In accordance with neuroscientific theory, recorded cursor movements parallel the eye gaze patterns observed in a control group. However, unlike tracking eye movements, the instrument offers a simple, unobtrusive, low‐cost, and time‐efficient way to measure the effectiveness of visual advertising. The results encourage the use of goal‐directed manual pointing movements to indicate attentional signals generated in the brain.     

Defining the “global” in global leadership

While scholars have begun to develop the conceptual foundations of global leadership, few attempts have been made to unify the plethora of existing definitions. We argue that the lack of a precise, rigorous and commonly accepted definition of global leadership limits the field's conceptual and empirical progress. Building on recommended practice for construct definitions, we first review and critique existing definitions of global leadership. Second, we specifically focus on explicating the global construct encompassed by the global leadership phenomenon and propose three dimensions along which this sub-construct can be analyzed: complexity, flow, and presence. Finally, we offer a revised construct definition and conclude with implications for research and practice.     

The Climate Policy of the European Union

There is now almost universal agreement that climate change, with potentially disastrous consequences, is happening and that it is contributed to by human activities. This Forum is dedicated to the discussion of various aspects of the European Union's climate policy, e.g. the EU's future role in the global effort to combat global warming, the efficiency of its climate strategy, the design of a new rule for sharing the corresponding burdens fairly among member states, and the interrelationships between the Union's climate policies, on the one hand, and its energy and transport policies, on the other. * and member of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). The author wishes to thank Helen Bicknell (Mainz University of Applied Sciences), Oliver Deke (WBGU) and Jürgen Schmid (ISET, Department of Efficient Energy Conversion at the University of Kassel) for their helpful comments. ** This contribution is based on a Jean Monnet Lecture held at Aarhus University on 19 March 2007. The author would like to thank Harri Kalimo for valuable comments.     

Who Gains From Nominal Devaluation? An Empirical Assessment of Euro‐area Exports and Imports

In early 2013, rumours about the euro‐appreciation gained momentum, which may lead to decreases in exports and increases in imports of the member states. Therefore, we investigate the impact of changes in the nominal euro exchange rate vis‐à‐vis major currencies on export and import performance of nine different euro‐area countries. To disentangle the ‘true’ equilibrium elasticities Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE) system error correction models (SSECM) are estimated for nominal exchange rate changes versus the rest of the world or other major currencies. To differentiate between price level changes and changes of the nominal exchange rate, a country's export and import equation is estimated using separately the nominal rate and the relative price/unit labour cost as regressors. Results of Wald tests indicate that assuming both variables to have the same influence on exports and imports is misleading. Whether the relative price/unit labour costs elasticities are high or low depends crucially on which indicator is chosen, while the effect of nominal exchange rate changes can be estimated robustly for all countries in the sample. In particular, France and Spain are hit by a euro‐appreciation since their exports are highly exchange rate elastic. However, for France, this effect is at least partly offset by an also negative exchange rate elasticity of imports.     

Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?

I analyse whether countries with flexible exchange rates are able to pursue an independent monetary policy, as suggested by traditional theory. I use data for three Latin American countries with flexible exchange rates, inflation targeting and capital mobility – Chile, Colombia and Mexico – to investigate the extent to which Federal Reserve actions are translated into local central banks' policy rates. The results indicate that there is significant ‘policy contagion’ and that these countries tend to ‘import’ Fed policies. The degree of monetary policy independence is lower than what traditional models suggest.     

Ist der Fahrplan der Energiewende noch einzuhalten?

The German energy transition represents a policy-driven, sustainability-oriented restructuring of both supply- and demand-side components of the entire energy system by 2050. Whereas the development of renewable energies in the electricity sector is right on track, due to the feed-in tariffs of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act, many other crucial requirements for a successful transition are not, amongst others the improvement of energy effi ciency and the decarbonisation of the transport sector. Contrary to the public discussion, the primary future challenges do not consist in limiting electricity prices or abandoning feed-in support schemes, but rather in coordinating the variety of actors as well as appropriately matching the different system elements (grids, technologies, energy sectors, demand and supply side, etc.). Much remains to be done. By highlighting some examples like the need to take into account future implications of climate change for the energy sector, the consequences of the current crisis in the European Union’s emissions trading scheme and the need for a cautious adjustment of the EEG, the paper argues that the major challenges regarding the German energy transition mainly go beyond the current policy-driven and short-term discussion of energy prices. Germany’s pioneering attempt to integrate steadily increasing share of non-dispatchable electricity from renewable sources is challenging the stability of the system. Several characteristics in the current selfregulating system are identifi ed and analysed, which reveal themselves as potential weaknesses or shortcomings in the upcoming system.     

Talking by numbers — Communicated uncertainty of the ECB

Using a novel approach, this paper analyses the deliberately communicated uncertainty of the ECB to the market. Specifi cally, it semantically analyses the uncertainty expressed in offi cial ECB press statements. The analysis shows how the ECB tries to alert or appease the market with different levels of communicated uncertainty. The appeasement through low uncertainty communication levels is particularly pronounced during times of fi nancial distress. Further, the analysis shows that the ECB tried to alert the market through an increasing level of communicated uncertainty prior to the outbreak of the global fi nancial crisis.     

Brand Attachment and Consumer Emotional Response to Unethical Firm Behavior

Attaching consumers to a brand is a cornerstone of relationship marketing as attachment increases loyalty. This research investigates another possible benefit of attachment, its potential and limits for shielding brands from firms’ ethical missteps. Merging motivated reasoning and attachment theories, two studies focus on how brand attachment influences consumer judgments of firm ethics and the emotional and behavioral consequences developing from those. A field study indicates that attachment attenuates judgments of unethical behavior, contributes to emotional ambivalence, and affects purchase intentions. A subsequent experiment corroborates these findings and shows that the buffering role of attachment is limited to conditions when the information about firm ethics is moderately rather than extremely negative. Implications focus on advancing research on ethics and emotional ambivalence in consumer brand relationships and on managerial implications.