Linear models for minimizing misclassification costs in bankruptcy prediction

This paper illustrates how a misclassification cost matrix can be incorporated into an evolutionary classification system for bankruptcy prediction. Most classification systems for predicting bankruptcy have attempted to minimize misclassifications. The minimizing misclassification approach assumes that Type I and Type II error costs for misclassifications are equal. There is evidence that these costs are not equal and incorporating costs into the classification systems can lead to better and more desirable results. In this paper, we use the principles of evolution to develop and test a genetic algorithm (GA) based approach that incorporates the asymmetric Type I and Type II error costs. Using simulated and real-life bankruptcy data, we compare the results of our proposed approach with three linear approaches: statistical linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a goal programming approach, and a GA-based classification approach that does not incorporate the asymmetric misclassification costs. Our results indicate that the proposed approach, incorporating Type I and Type II error costs, results in lower misclassification costs when compared to LDA and GA approaches that do not incorporate misclassification costs. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On manufacturers complementing the traditional retail channel with a direct online channel

With the explosion of the Internet and the reach that it affords, many manufacturers have complemented their existing retail channels with an online channel, which allows them to sell directly to their consumers. Interestingly, there is a significant variation within product categories in manufacturer's use of the Internet as a direct distribution channel. The main objective of this study is to examine the strategic forces that may influence the manufacturer's decision to complement the retail channel with a direct online channel. In particular, we are interested in answering the following questions:

1. Why is it that in some markets only a few firms find it optimal to complement their retail channels with a direct Internet channel while other firms do not?
2. What strategic role (if any), does the direct Internet channel serve and how do market characteristics impact this role?

To address these issues we develop a model with a single strategic manufacturer serving a market through a single strategic retailer. In addition to the focal manufacturer's product the retailer carries products of competing manufacturers. Consumers in this market are one of two types. They are either brand loyal or store loyal. The retailer sets the retail price and the level of retail support, which impact the demand for the manufacturer's product. The retailer's decisions in turn depend on the wholesale price as well as the Internet price of the product if the manufacturer decides to complement the retail channel with an online channel. Our analysis reveals that the optimality of complementing the retail channel with an online channel and the role served by the latter depends critically upon the level of support that the retailer allocates to the manufacturer's product in the absence of the online channel. The level of support allocated by the retailer, in the absence of the online channel, depends upon the retail margins on the manufacturer's product relative to that on rival products in the product category. When the size of the brand loyal segment is small relative to the size of the store loyal segment then in the absence of the online channel, the manufacturer can lower wholesale price and enhance retail support, especially when the retail margins on the rival products are low. In contrast, when the size of the loyal segment is large and the retail margins on rival products are high the manufacturer will find it more profitable to charge a high wholesale price even if that induces the retailer to extend low levels of support. If the manufacturer decides to complement the retail channel with an online channel, some consumers who would have purchased from the retailer might prefer to purchase online. Our analysis reveals that when consumers' sensitivity to price differences across the competing channels exceeds a certain threshold it is not optimal for the manufacturer to complement the retail channel with an online channel. However, this price sensitivity threshold itself depends upon product/market characteristics, suggesting that manufacturers seeking to complement their retail channels with an online channel should look beyond the nature of threat the online channel poses to the retail channel in devising their optimal distribution strategies. When the retail margins on rival products are sufficiently small, complementing the retail channel with an online channel when optimal allows the manufacturer to price discriminate and enhance profits. In contrast when retail margins on rival products are sufficiently high, complementing the retail channel with an online channel serves to enhance retail support. We also identify market conditions under which profits of both the manufacturer and the retailer are greater with the online channel than that without it. This is particularly interesting since the online channel competes with the retail channel.     

The Effect of Private-Debt-Underwriting Reputation on Bank Public-Debt Underwriting

We provide evidence that commercial banks extend their reputationin underwriting syndicated loans and private placements (privatedebt) to their bond-underwriting activities. In the absenceof bond market reputation, private-debt-market reputation enablescommercial banks to win underwriting mandates from their loanclients. Furthermore, it allows them to credibly commit to investorsagainst opportunistically using lending information and therebydeliver superior certification benefits in the form of higherissue prices relative to investment-bank underwriters. Thispricing benefit is not offset by higher underwriting fees andthus results in lower total issuance costs for borrowers.(JELG21, G28, L14, L15)     

International acquisitions in the united states: Evidence from returns to foreign bidders

This paper provides evidence on the minimally explored topic of abnormal returns earned by stockholders of foreign bidders seeking to acquire a target firm in the USA. Four sources of influence on abnormal returns are identified: changes in net wealth of the bidder associated with changes in exchange rates; possible value-destroying managerial discretionary behavior by bidders with excess cash flows, as suggested by Jensen; comparative advantages for foreign bidders domiciled in relatively favorable tax jurisdictions; ownership status of the target, i.e. whether the target is an entire firm and whether it involves divested assets. The study includes 77 firms from 10 countries. The results show that stockholders of foreign bidders earn significant, negative abnormal returns surrounding the announcement of an acquisition in the USA. These abnormal returns become increasingly negative over the 15 days after the announcement of the acquisition, indicating that more information about the acquisition is revealed to investors subsequent to the initial announcement. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that relative exchange rates and cash positions explain variation in abnormal returns. A decline in the value of the dollar increases abnormal returns for the foreign bidder, thus supporting the net wealth hypothesis. The results also show that cash-rich foreign firms tend to enjoy higher abnormal returns when making acquisitions in the USA. The result provides support for the Froot and Stein cash-constrained hypothesis rather than for Jensen's free-cash-flow theory.     

Repurchase premia as a reason for dividends: a dynamic model of corporate payout policies

We propose that it is precisely because firms' repurchases oftheir own stock through tender offers are associated with largestock-price increases that repurchases are unattractive as ameans o distributing cash. As a result, firms distribute somecash in the form of dividends - despite the tax disadvantage- and carry the rest to future periods. However, when theirstock is sufficiently undervalued, firms distribute all accumulatedcash through stock repurchases. We show that dividends are smoothedand are positively related both to earnings innovations andto previous period's dividends. Also, the stock-price reactionto a repurchase announcement, of a given size, is increasingin the previous period's dividends.     

Risk reduction in S&L mortgage loan portfolios through geographic diversification

The reduction in foreclosure-risk exposure to S&L mortgage portfolios that results from elimination of geographic restrictions due to DIDMCA of 1980 is evaluated in this study. By employing a quadratic programming approach, it is empirically demonstrated that geographic diversification can reduce a mortgage portfolio's foreclosure-risk exposure by 50 percent to 90 percent when compared to geographically undiversified mortgage portfolios. The benefits of reduced-foreclosure risk could accrue to either the FSLIC or to member S&Ls if the FSLIC adopts a risk-based insurance premium.The authors would like to thank Ike Mathur, Donald Fraser, Stuart Rosenstein, the two anonymous referees, and the editor for comments, suggestions, and corrections.     

Executive Pay Matters: Looking Beyond the CEO to Explore Implications of Pay Disparity on Non‐CEO Executive Turnover and Firm Performance

Using a longitudinal data set covering a span of 10 years, we investigate the impact of vertical and horizontal pay disparity on non‐CEO executive turnover and subsequent firm performance. Hypothesizing differential responses to pay disparity depending on a non‐CEO executive's responsibilities, we first categorize non‐CEO executives based on their job demands and their role in the organization (e.g., oversight, divisional). We then explore how pay disparity influences the relationship between executive category and turnover, and how the level of pay disparity impacts the relationship between turnover and firm performance. We find that executive category significantly impacts the likelihood of turnover, and also influences firm performance. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Does environmental quality influence health expenditures? Empirical evidence from a panel of selected OECD countries

In this paper we examine the role of environmental quality in determining per capita health expenditures. We take a panel cointegration approach in order to explore the possibility of estimating both short-run and long-run impacts of environmental quality. Our empirical analysis is based on eight OECD countries, namely Austria, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK for the period 1980-1999. We find that per capita health expenditure, per capita income, carbon monoxide emissions, sulphur oxide emissions and nitrogen oxide emissions are panel cointegrated. While short-run elasticities reveal that income and carbon monoxide emissions exert a statistically significant positive effect on health expenditures, in the long-run in addition to income and carbon monoxide, we find that sulphur oxide emissions have a statistically significant positive impact on health expenditures.     

The effects of tax policy on financial markets: G3 evidence

We investigate the effects of various tax policy innovations on stock market returns. By using a vector autoregressive model that controls for the mutual causality between fiscal policy and financial market performance, we test whether financial markets serve as a transmission mechanism for tax policy innovations. Our findings indicate that indirect taxes have a larger effect on market returns than do labor taxes. Further, corporate tax innovations do not have any statistically significant effect on stock returns. We consider that this finding is a result of a firm's ability to switch between equity financing and bond financing.     

Do Chinese Retail Option Traders Know Anything about Market Volatility?

This paper examines the information content of implied volatility in the Chinese covered warrant market and finds that the implied volatility is consistently higher than the realized volatility for all warrants and across all maturities. The implied volatility has very little information content for future volatility in the Chinese warrant market which is dominated by retail investors. Possible explanations for the results are regulatory issues such as restrictions on the short-selling of warrants, differential trading rules for stocks and warrants, high leverage and low trading costs and a market dominated by retail investors.