The role of low expectations in health and education investment and hazardous consumption

Abstract .  Young people with little 'social or health capital' may be more likely to take up hazardous consumption and shun investments in human capital, raising their likelihood of a 'rags to rags' sequence. First, diminishing marginal utility could raise the marginal benefit of hazardous consumption and the cost of investment. But poor youths may also have lower expectations of future success, independent of the choices they make. Lower expectations of success could reduce the future cost of hazardous consumption and benefit of investment. We test the effect of expectations on decisions to smoke, drink hazardously, exercise, and complete high school, using a longitudinal study of youth in New Zealand. We find that 15-year-olds' expectations of success predict the subsequent onset of smoking, lack of exercise, and failure to complete high school, but not hazardous drinking. While some of the influence of expectations can be explained by low social and health capital, IQ, and other factors, expectations retain a direct effect on smoking and exercise once these other factors are controlled for.     

Simple and powerful GMM over-identification tests with accurate size

Based on the series long run variance estimator, we propose a new class of over-identification tests that are robust to heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of unknown forms. We show that when the number of terms used in the series long run variance estimator is fixed, the conventional J statistic, after a simple correction, is asymptotically F-distributed. We apply the idea of the F-approximation to the conventional kernel-based J tests. Simulations show that the J^∗ tests based on the finite sample corrected J statistic and the F-approximation have virtually no size distortion, and yet are as powerful as the standard J tests.     

Economic Benefits Resulting From Irrigation Water Use: Theory and an Application to Groundwater Use

Traditional economic analysis using a crop production function approachhas assumed that all variable factors, including irrigation water, arefully employed in the crop production process. However, this paper firstdemonstrates that economic benefits of irrigation water areoverestimated when the crop production function, and therefore theirrigation water demand function, is expressed in terms of irrigationwater supplied, rather than consumptive irrigation water use. Second,the paper demonstrates that the magnitude of the estimation bias isproportional to the rate of irrigation water losses through leaching,runoff and evaporation. Consequently, the model misspecification problemwould lead to increased irrigation water use and reduce incentives forfarmers to adopt improved irrigation technologies.     

The price effect of allowing non-pharmacy outlets to sell OTC drugs in Korea

By the amendment of the Pharmaceutical Affairs Act in 2012, non-pharmacy outlets (confined to 24-hour convenience stores) in Korea were permitted to sell 13 over-the-counter (OTC) drugs. This article empirically examines the effect of the regulatory reform on OTC drug prices. To do so, we use county-level price data of 7 OTC drugs for the years of 2012 and 2013. Among them, 2 OTC drugs are available at non-pharmacy outlets due to the deregulation, and the remaining 5 are still only available at pharmacies. Employing a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that after the regulatory reform, prices of the 2 OTC drugs increased by only 1.1% while those of the rest 5 increased by 6.5%. This result has implications for the government’s policy of designating non-pharmacy outlets that can sell OTC drugs from the viewpoint of consumer welfare.     

Relationship between oil price and exchange rate by FDA and copula

This article investigates the relationship between daily crude oil prices and exchange rates. Functional data analysis is used to show the clustering pattern of exchange rates and oil prices over the time period through high dimensional visualizations. We select exchange rates for important currencies related to crude oil prices by using the objective Bayesian variable selection method. The selected sample data exhibits non-normal distribution with fat tails and skewness. Under the non-normality of the return series, we use copula functions that do not require to assume the bivariate normality to consider marginal distribution. In particular, our study applies the popular and powerful statistical methods such as Gaussian copula partial correlations and Gaussian copula marginal regression. We find evidence of significant dependence for all considered pairs, except for the Mexican peso-Brent. Our empirical results also show that the rise in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price returns is associated with a depreciation of the US dollar.     

Optimal forecast evaluation: fertilizer prices

High fertilizer price volatility makes production planning and inventory management difficult, so accurate fertilizer price forecasts would be beneficial. This article evaluates commercial forecasts for urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices based on forecast accuracy and optimal forecast properties. Most forecasts pass the tests, but forecasts for the US New Orleans urea and the US Gulf DAP markets, in particular, do not and thus show potential to be improved.     

How credible is the North Korean threat?

We perform event analysis on particular episodes of tension in the Korean peninsula between 2000 and 2008, and investigate the effect of the events on South Korean financial markets (stock markets, bond yield spreads and the exchange rate) given that South Korea would be the first affected by a military aggression from North Korea. Surprisingly, in nearly all cases, these events, which have often been dramatized in the world media, have no significant impact on either of these variables or only a very small one. We also find no significant impact of events on listed firms that would a priori be likely to suffer from increased tension between the two Koreas. Since financial markets often contain better predictions than expert opinions or surveys, these results strongly suggest that the North Korean threat is non‐credible.     

When do incentives work in channels of distribution?

The incentive dilemma refers to a situation in which incentives are offered but do not work as intended. The authors suggest that, in an interorganizational context, whether a principal-provided incentive works is a function of how it is evaluated by an agent: for its contribution to the agent’s bottom line (instrumental evaluation) and for the extent it is strategically aligned with the agent’s direction (congruence evaluation). To further understand when incentives work, the influence of two key contextual variables—industry volatility and dependence—are examined. A field study featuring 57 semi-structured depth interviews and 386 responses from twin surveys in the information technology and brewing industries provide data for hypothesis testing. When and whether incentives work is demonstrated by certain conditions under which the agent’s evaluation of an incentive has positive or negative effects on its compliance and active representation. Further, some outcomes are reversed in the high volatility condition.     

Social comparison among competing firms

Extending social comparison theory to the context of interfirm competition, we investigate whether and under what conditions firms may benefit by deviating from consumers' views concerning firm comparisons. Based on all of the possible dyadic competitive comparisons among the 26 automakers in the United States, we found that: (1) a focal firm enjoys a greater increase in sales than the target firm when it compares itself with a more reputable target firm, even though consumers do not perceive the focal firm to be comparable to the more reputable firm; and (2) a focal firm enjoys a greater increase in sales than the target firm when it avoids comparison with a less reputable target firm, even though consumers compare the focal firm with the less reputable firm. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Market Instability and Revision Error in Risk Premium

This paper provides a theory and evidence that the risk premium puzzle is viewed as a phenomenon pertaining to the unstable foreign exchange market. In an unstable market, revision error uncompensated by an initial risk premium accrues due to consumer expectation revision about the ex ante uncertainty of the exchange rate. The risk premium widely deviates from its initial level, depending on the frequency of the consumer expectation revision and the degree of risk aversion. Subsequent evidence shows the existence of the revision errors for the risk premium during the Asian currency crisis and the recent financial crisis periods.