Financial market models with Lévy processes and time-varying volatility

Asset management and pricing models require the proper modeling of the return distribution of financial assets. While the return distribution used in the traditional theories of asset pricing and portfolio selection is the normal distribution, numerous studies that have investigated the empirical behavior of asset returns in financial markets throughout the world reject the hypothesis that asset return distributions are normally distribution. Alternative models for describing return distributions have been proposed since the 1960s, with the strongest empirical and theoretical support being provided for the family of stable distributions (with the normal distribution being a special case of this distribution). Since the turn of the century, specific forms of the stable distribution have been proposed and tested that better fit the observed behavior of historical return distributions. More specifically, subclasses of the tempered stable distribution have been proposed. In this paper, we propose one such subclass of the tempered stable distribution which we refer to as the “KR distribution”. We empirically test this distribution as well as two other recently proposed subclasses of the tempered stable distribution: the Carr–Geman–Madan–Yor (CGMY) distribution and the modified tempered stable (MTS) distribution. The advantage of the KR distribution over the other two distributions is that it has more flexible tail parameters. For these three subclasses of the tempered stable distribution, which are infinitely divisible and have exponential moments for some neighborhood of zero, we generate the exponential Lévy market models induced from them. We then construct a new GARCH model with the infinitely divisible distributed innovation and three subclasses of that GARCH model that incorporates three observed properties of asset returns: volatility clustering, fat tails, and skewness. We formulate the algorithm to find the risk-neutral return processes for those GARCH models using the “change of measure” for the tempered stable distributions. To compare the performance of those exponential Lévy models and the GARCH models, we report the results of the parameters estimated for the S&P 500 index and investigate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for those GARCH models for the S&P 500 option prices.     

Some properties of pseudo P-convex functions

In this note we study some properties of pseudo P-convex functions a class of generalized convex functions, recently introduced by Hackman and Passy, defined in product spaces of finite dimension. In particular we introduce some generalized monotone maps studying their relationships with the gradient of differentiable pseudo P-convex functions and a class of continuous P-connected functions that in a differentiable setting belongs to the class of pseudo P-convex functions.

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Sommario In questa nota si studiano alcune proprietà delle funzioni pseudo P-convesse, una classe di funzioni convesse generalizzate, recentemente introdotte da Hackman e Passy, definite nel prodotto cartesiano di spazi euclidei. In particolare si studiano alcune proprietà di monotonia del gradiente di funzioni pseudo P-convesse differenziabili e si evidenziano alcuni collegamenti con le funzioni P-connesse continue.

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This research is partially supported by the Italian Ministery of University and Scientific Research.     

Identification and Estimation of Distributional Impacts of Interventions Using Changes in Inequality Measures

This paper presents estimators of distributional impacts of interventions when selection to the program is based on observable characteristics. Distributional impacts are calculated as differences in inequality measures of the marginal distributions of potential outcomes of receiving and not receiving the treatment. The estimation procedure involves a first non‐parametric estimation of the propensity score. In the second step weighted versions of inequality measures are computed using weights based on the estimated propensity score. Consistency, semi‐parametric efficiency and validity of inference based on the percentile bootstrap are shown for the estimators. Results from Monte Carlo exercises show its good performance in small samples. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asymptotic expansion for some local volatility models arising in finance

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper, we study the small noise asymptotic expansions for certain classes of local volatility models arising in finance. We provide explicit expressions...     

The effectiveness of exchange-rate-based monetary policy: evidence from survey data

Singapore’s monetary policy is centred on the management of the exchange rate. We examine how macroeconomic forecasters perceive the effectiveness of this unconventional policy. We provide empirical evidence that forecasters’ expectations are consistent with a forward-looking exchange-rate-based Taylor-type policy rule. They expect monetary authorities to actively manage the currency against expected future changes in inflation and output.     

Stability and Vulnerability of the Latin American Middle Class

The geographical allocation of Spanish aid has been little studied, despite its unusual concentration on middle-income countries. This paper develops a theoretical model in which aid allocation depends on a combination of recipient needs, donor interests and performance criteria, and estimates it econometrically for Spain. The results show that the allocation of Spanish aid has been influenced both by Spain's own foreign policy interests and by recipient needs for poverty reduction and development (although not by the quality of recipient governance or recipient absorptive capacity). Former Spanish colonies received a disproportionate share of Spain's aid (as is true mutatis mutandis for other European countries), but aid is allocated among them with greater regard to recipient need than is Spain's aid to other developing countries.     

NUMERAIRE,SAVINGS AND THE INSTABILITY OF A COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM

This paper addresses the stability of a multimarket competitive equilibrium. The dependence of stability on the choice of the numeraire is clarified. The traditional tâtonnement pricing is revised in order to satisfy some basic features of economic behaviour. Well‐known conditions for local stability are proved to be insufficient if a market for credit is introduced alongside the markets of dated commodities. Stability depends not only on the slopes of the demand and supply curves, but also on equilibrium prices. This result emerges without the occurrence of capital perversities, such as reswitching and reverse capital deepening.     

Modeling exchange rate passthrough after large devaluations

Large devaluations are generally associated with large declines in real exchange rates. We develop a model which embodies two complementary forces that account for the large declines in the real exchange rate that occur in the aftermath of large devaluations. The first force is sticky nontradable-goods prices. The second force is the impact of real shocks that often accompany large devaluations. We argue that sticky nontradable goods prices generally play an important role in explaining post-devaluation movements in real exchange rates. However, real shocks can sometimes be primary drivers of real exchange-rate movements.