Do Real Estate Prices and Stock Prices Move Together? An International Analysis

The relationship between stock prices and real estate prices has been the subject of substantial debate in both the academic and practitioner literatures. Existing studies have focused on the time series of stock and real estate returns using data from a single country, such as the U.S. By necessity, these studies examine return and price changes over short intervals, creating a bias when property values are smoothed from year to year. Using data from 17 different countries over 14 years, this paper examines the relation between stock returns and changes in property values and rents. Consistent with other country-specific studies, we find that, with the exception of Japan, the contemporaneous relation between yearly real estate price changes and stock returns is not statistically significant. However, when the data are pooled across countries and when we look at longer measurement intervals, a significant relation between stock returns and both rents and value changes becomes apparent. Real estate prices are also found to be significantly influenced by GDP growth rates and provide a good long-term hedge against inflation but a poor year-to-year hedge.     

Leverage and Corporate Performance: Evidence from Unsuccessful Takeovers

This paper finds that, on average, targets that terminate takeover offers significantly increase their leverage ratios. Targets that increase their leverage ratios the most reduce capital expenditures, sell assets, reduce employment, increase focus, and realize cash flows and share prices that outperform their benchmarks in the five years following the failed takeover. Our evidence suggests that leverage-increasing targets act in the interests of shareholders when they terminate takeover offers and that higher leverage helps firms remain independent not because it entrenches managers, but because it commits managers to making the improvements that would be made by potential raiders.     

The Going-Public Decision and the Development of Financial Markets

This paper explores the linkages between stock price efficiency, the choice between private and public financing, and the development of capital markets in emerging economies. Generally, the advantage of public financing is high if costly information is diverse and cheap to acquire, and if investors receive valuable information without cost. The value of public firms generally depends on public market size, which implies that there can be a positive externality associated with going public, so that an inferior equilibrium can exist where too few firms go public. The model is consistent with empirical observations on financial market development.     

An Entrepreneur's Guide to Understanding the Cost of Venture Capital

Entrepreneurs who deal with a venture capital firm (VC) for the first time often find themselves unprepared for the experience. The deal structure language used to describe financing terms, and the methods used to value the investment, are unique to the VC world. The authors have two objectives in preparing this entrepreneur's guide to venture capital finance: First, they explain why VCs require rates of return that are considerably higher—even after adjusting for difference in risk—than the returns required by the shareholders of established companies. Their explanation focuses on differences of opinion between overly optimistic entrepreneurs and less sanguine VCs. Second, the authors discuss the difficulty faced by entrepreneurs when trying to understand the actual cost of VC financing (including the dilution of value that occurs when entrepreneurs fail to meet targets or milestones). The problem can be traced to deal structure terms that typically call for the VC to receive preferential treatment in the event the entrepreneur's scenario does not turn out to be accurate. More specifically, entrepreneurs often grant VCs control rights as well as liquidation rights that, when things go wrong, dramatically increase the effective cost to entrepreneurs of venture financing.     

The effect of capital structure on a firm's liquidation decision

A firm's liquidation can impose costs on its customers, workers, and suppliers. An agency relationship between these individuals and the firm exists in that the liquidation decision controlled by the firm (as the agent) affects other individuals (the customers, workers, and suppliers as principals). The analysis in this paper suggests that capital structure can control the incentive/conflict problem of this relationship by serving as a pre-positioning or bonding mechanism. Appropriate selection of capital structure assures that incentives are aligned so that the firm implements the ex-ante value-maximizing liquidation policy.     

Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Determinants of Momentum Returns

Portfolio strategies that buy stocks with high returns overthe previous 3–12 months and sell stocks with low returnsover this same time period perform well over the following 12months. A recent article by Conrad and Kaul (1998) presentsstriking evidence suggesting that the momentum profits are attributableto cross-sectional differences in expected returns rather thanto any time-series dependence in returns. This article showsthat Conrad and Kaul reach this conclusion because they do nottake into account the small sample biases in their tests andbootstrap experiments. Our unbiased empirical tests indicatethat cross-sectional differences in expected returns explainvery little, if any, of the momentum profits.