Managing Oil Price Risk in Developing Countries

This article presents a simple framework for understanding theimpact of oil dependence on growth in terms of an optimal savingsand investment strategy. Among the more important factors underlyingthis strategy is the extent to which oil price changes are temporaryor permanent. This in turn determines whether a country shouldrely on stabilization and savings funds or the use of financialinstruments to manage oil revenues—or both. Country experienceswith stabilization and savings funds are surveyed, and the caseis presented for using financial instrument to manage oil pricerisk. Policy implications for enhancing the use of financialinstruments are explored, including an expanded role for internationalfinancial institutions.      

Determinants of Credit Spreads in Commercial Mortgages

This article examines the cross-sectional and time-series determinants of commercial mortgage credit spreads as well as the terms of the mortgages. Consistent with theory, our empirical evidence indicates that mortgages on property types that tend to be riskier and have greater investment flexibility exhibit higher spreads. The relationship between the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and spreads is relatively weak, which is probably due to the endogeneity of the LTV choice. However, the average LTV ratio per lender has a strong positive relation with credit spreads, which is consistent with the idea that lenders specialize in mortgages with either high or low levels of risk, and that high LTV mortgages require substantially higher spreads. Finally, we observe that spreads widen and mortgage terms become stricter after periods of poor performance of the real estate markets and after periods of greater default rates of outstanding real estate loans.     

Pricing strategy and financial policy

Recent empirical evidence indicates that capital structure changesaffect pricing strategies. In most cases, prices increase followingthe implementation of a leveraged buyout of a major firm inan industry, with the more leveraged firm in the industry charginghigher prices on average. Notable exceptions exist, however,when the leverage increasing firm's rival is relatively unlevered.The first observation is consistent with a model where firmscompete for market share on the basis of price. The second observationcan be explained within the context of a Stackelberg model wherethe relatively unlevered rival acts as the Stackelberg priceleader.     

Financial policy and reputation for product quality

The effect of financial policy on a firm's incentives to maintainits reputation of producing a high-quality product is analyzed.It is demonstrated that in certain situations debt will reducea firm's ability to credibly offer high-quality products and,as a consequence, will reduce its value. However, for firmswith assets that have high salvage values in liquidation, debtmay increase their ability to credibly offer high-quality productsand, therefore, increase their values.     

Risk and the Performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts: A Multiple Index Approach

This paper analyzes the returns of a sample of Real Estate Investment Trusts and examines their risk-adjusted performance using both single index (i.e., CAPM) and multiple index (i.e., APT) models. It is shown that while the performance rankings of the investment trusts are not very sensitive to the risk-adjustment model, the actual performance measures do sometimes differ substantially. Unfortunately, because of the high volatility of these real estate investments, the differences in investment performance across trusts generally are not statistically significant.