Children's welfare exposure and subsequent development

We examine the extent to which children are exposed to the welfare system through their mother's receipt of benefits and its impact on several developmental outcomes. Using data from the matched mother-child file from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), we find that children's welfare exposure is substantial. By age 10, over one-third of all children will have lived in a welfare household; black, non-Hispanic children face a much higher rate of exposure. Simple correlations suggest a strong negative relationship between maternal welfare receipt and children's outcomes. In this paper, we implement three alternative strategies (instrumental variables, sibling differences, and child fixed effects models) designed to identify whether this correlation can be attributed to the mother's welfare receipt directly or to other characteristics of mothers who receive welfare, regardless of whether or not those characteristics are observable to the researcher. Based on the results of all three estimation strategies, we find little evidence of any causal link between maternal welfare receipt and children's developmental outcomes.     

面向交通运输系统应用的综合集成理论

随着社会经济的发展,传统交通运输模式将被强调运输方式之间集成和协同的新模式所取代.文中分析和阐述了系统集成的相关理论,探讨了在交通运输系统研究中应用综合集成理论的重要意义.     

Different momentum effects across countries: An explanation based on investors' behavior

We establish a model in which speculators use feedback trading characteristics to infer the behavior of irrational investors and induce them to trade. We also discuss the stability and time series of asset prices. Our results show that: (1) speculators have speculation and arbitrage demands and make “noise” to induce irrational investors to trade, (2) the time series of asset prices show stable momentum and a reversal effect when fundamental traders dominate the market, and (3) momentums are unstable and perform poorly under extreme circumstances. Our article offers a unique approach to understanding the micro mechanism of different momentum effects in various markets and suggests a plausible theoretical framework to illustrate such differences.     

2004年世界能源发展总态势

2004年,能源短缺和安全问题因扰全球。油价暴涨反映的一个基本事实是世年能源消费结构不合理,能源安全体系脆弱。采取能源多元化和开源节流等多种措施．实现能源的可特续发展．已成为全球的共识．2004年全球气候灾害频繁．能源发展正越来越爱到环境因素的制约。许多国家在制定本国能源政蓑时,已将环境因素放在优先考虑的地位。2004年全球加紧了新能源的开发和利用．其中氢能作为有望替代石油的动力燃料．更得到了各发达国家的普遍关注．生物质燃料也成为世界最新关注的热点。2004年能源外交非常活跃,西方八国首脑会议、APEC首脑会议及”上海合作组织”首脑会议都把能源列入重要议题。中国的能源短缺引起了全球的广泛关注,发达国家纷纷希望扩大与中国在能源领域的合作。尤其在核能和可再生能源领域的分作可以说,2004年既是能源领域的国际竞争年、也是国际上广泛开展能源合作的一年。     

金融危机背景下基金家族绩效与风险关系研究——基于面板数据模型的实证分析

以中国基金市场32家基金管理公司旗下的103只开放式偏股型基金作为样本,选择恰当的面板数据模型形式,分别建立金融危机之前、危机期间和危机之后三个时期基金家族绩效与风险关系模型,以剖析不同经济形势下两者之间的关系。结果表明,金融危机之前和危机期间基金家族绩效与风险显著负相关,而危机之后两者关系不显著,在金融危机期间和危机之后基金业绩效状况持续恶化,危机之后基金业整体风险水平降低;金融危机后,为弥补金融危机中造成的损失,各基金家族倾向于采取"打造明星基金"的投资策略以充分利用有限资源、提升家族整体绩效。     

新形势下做好国有企业新员工思想政治工作的研究探讨

随着市场经济的不断发展和国有企业改革的不断深入,如何做好国有企业新员工的思想政治工作,使新员工认清形势,积极工作,担当作为,创造自我人生价值,推动企业发展,实现个人与企业双赢是当前新形势下国有企业思想政治工作的新课题。     

Strike and changing workplace relations in a Chinese global factory

This article engages with the debate around global capitalism and labour politics in the context of China. Data were drawn from fieldwork on a Taiwanese‐invested factory, where a strike was staged in 2004 spreading from one department to the whole factory. After it ended, the protest encouraged further struggles in the factory and inspired workers in other factories. While the original‐place‐based networks and their attached gangsters had previously divided and pacified workers, the function of place‐based networks and gangsters were dramatically changed in favour of the workers' interests during the strike. The author further argues that the expansion of capitalism in China has raised the marketplace and workplace power of workers but their associational power is impeded by the state socialist legacy.     

Quantile hedging for equity-linked life insurance contracts in a stochastic interest rate economy

In this paper we examine equity-linked life insurance contracts in a stochastic interest rate economy via quantile hedging whose purpose is to look for the optimal probability of a successful hedge under initial budget constraint. Most of the existing studies have focused on valuing equity-linked life insurance contracts by quantile hedging or in a framework of stochastic interest rates. However, a few have taken into account simultaneously the two techniques, which make valuing equity-linked life insurance contracts more difficult. We model the term structure of interest rates by classical HJM model that imbeds stochastic interest rate economy into one containing an arbitrary number of additional risky assets. By means of the change of measure approach, we give explicit formulas for the fair values of the following four products: deterministic payoff contract, pure equity-linked life contract, equity-linked life contract with guarantee, equity-linked life contract with minimum guarantees and capped benefits. We find that the explicit formulas are mainly composed of normal distribution functions and two-dimensional normal distribution functions. We also investigate sensibility of the survival probability using data of interest rates, stock prices and life table from China.