Generalized spatial autocorrelation in a panel-probit model with an application to exporting in China

This paper proposes a generalized spatial panel-data probit model with spatial autocorrelation of the dependent variable, the time-invariant individual shocks, and the remainder disturbances. It proposes its estimation with a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. Simulation results show that the proposed estimation method performs well in small- to medium-sized samples. This method is then applied to the analysis of export-market participation of 1451 Chinese firms between 2002 and 2006 in the prefecture-level city of Wenzhou in the province of Zhejiang. Empirical results show that two of the three forms of the hypothesized spatial autocorrelation are significant, namely the spatial lag for the dependent variable and the time-invariant firm-specific shocks, but not the time-variant shocks. Ignoring any of these significant spatial effects would lead to misspecification.     

Testing spatial regression models under nonregular conditions

In time series context, estimation and testing issues with autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) models are well understood. Similar issues in the context of spatial ARMA models for the disturbance of the regression, however, remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we discuss the problems of testing no spatial dependence in the disturbances against the alternative of spatial ARMA process incorporating the possible presence of spatial dependence in the dependent variable. The problems of conducting such a test are twofold. First, under the null hypothesis, the nuisance parameter is not identified, resulting in a singular information matrix (IM), which is a nonregular case in statistical inference. To take account of singular IM, we follow Davies (Biometrika 64(2):247–254, 1977; Biometrika 74(1):33–43, 1987) and propose a test procedure based on the supremum of the Rao score test statistic. Second, the possible presence of spatial lag dependence will have adverse effect on the performance of the test. Using the general test procedure of Bera and Yoon (Econom Theory 9:649–658, 1993) under local misspecification, we avoid the explicit estimation of the spatial autoregressive parameter. Thus our suggested tests are entirely based on ordinary least squares estimation. Tests suggested here can be viewed as a generalization of Anselin et al. (Reg Sci Urban Econ 26:77–104, 1996). We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the finite sample properties of the proposed tests. Simulation results show that our tests have good finite sample properties both in terms of size and power, compared to other tests in the literature. We also illustrate the applications of our tests through several data sets.     

中国股市市盈率的变化趋势及国际比较

在市场充分有效的前提条件下,市盈率应该较正确地反映一家公司的基本面和市场因素,包括财务指标、成长性、管理能力、公司治理、股票流动性等多方面。基于对2007年沪深股市的观察,对中国证券市场历史数据进行实证分析和国际比较,可以客观地解答当前中国股民关于市盈率的困惑。     

Komplexität erfolgreich steuern — 27. Österreichischer Controllertag in Wien

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

影响中国房地产市场发展的主要制度安排研究

影响我国房地产市场的主要制度安排有五种：房地产住房供给和保障制度、房地产土地供给制度、房地产金融制度、房地产税收制度和存在于我国居民购房行为中的非正式制度。本文对这些制度安排的主要内容及其变迁做了分析,并研究了这些制度安排对我国房地产发展的影响。     

The objective of a privately owned firm under imperfect competition

This paper proposes a model of imperfect competition among privately owned firms that act in the best interest of their shareholders. The existence of a solution for the model is proved under weaker conditions than the ones generally used in the literature. In particular, the results did not require the existence of a continuous equilibrium price selection or concavity assumptions on the profit function.      

Technological knowledge as an essential facility

The economics of regulation has articulated the notions of essential facility and mandated interconnection. Their application to the governance of technological knowledge can be fruitful especially when implemented by the adoption of a compensatory liability rule and the parallel reduction in the exclusivity of patents. Because knowledge is at the same time an output and an input in the production of new knowledge, exclusivity, traditionally associated to patents, is the cause of actual knowledge rationing with major drawbacks in terms of both static and dynamic efficiency. This institutional innovation can improve the governance of technological knowledge and increase both its rates of dissemination and generation.

On scientific expedition tourism of desert region: a case of eastern Ulan Buh Inner Mongolia

Desert-based adventure tourism is a rapidly expanding tourism market segment after the late 20^th century around the world. Perhaps the most significant factor in the development of desert adventure tourism is the extent to which common tourists are really engaged in scientific expedition. Inner Mongolia has long been considered as the resources accumulation area of desert tourism. The investigation on the Ulan Bah Desert has discovered that the desert animals, the vegetation, the insects, the fungus, tire landfrom and the climate are impressive for both the researchers and the mass tourists. After the resources investigation a survey was carried out in 2007 to get the detailed information of the tourists＇ attitude toward the planning desert scientific product in the Ulan Buh Desert. Based on the resources and market analysis, this paper tries to make a planning of the desert scientific expedition tour of the Ulan Bah Desert. The planning includes the functional division, expedition route design, tour-explaining system, facility of safety guaranty and service planning, and the professional training base.