中国的最优化动态IS-LM模型构建与应用

传统的IS-LM模型由于存在许多缺陷一直以来都备受批评。理性预期革命之后出现的基于跨期动态最优化的IS-LM模型却能够很好地克服传统的缺陷,逐渐受到当代宏观经济学家的青睐。本文尝试在最优化IS-LM基本模型的基础上,引入对定期存款的配置行为,加入政府和国外部门,将模型拓展为四部门三资产模型,然后利用中国数据采用理性预期的方法对参数进行估计,并解释了方程系数的含义。最后对于模型如何实现动态化用以描述经济的演化作了一些探讨。     

A review of Delphi forecasting research in tourism

The Delphi technique is the most popular judgemental forecasting method in tourism studies, but theoretical and empirical developments in this area (especially for forecasting purposes) have been slow. This paper analyses published research on Delphi forecasting in tourism and hospitality, explores how the Delphi forecasting method has progressed over the past four decades in terms of topical areas, empirical applications, and issues of reliability and validity, and is thus expected to advance understanding of the Delphi technique, providing topical and methodological recommendations for researchers and industry practitioners for producing accurate forecasts. The literature concerning the qualitative and quantitative applications of Delphi forecasting in tourism is mainly divided into three research themes: event forecasting, forecasting tourism demand, and forecasting future trends/market conditions (the most popular application). Issues of accuracy, reliability, and validity, as well as a group of Delphi-specific characteristics, such as panel size, panel selection, consensus measures, and analysis of results, are summarized and discussed. This study also examines the accuracy of Delphi forecasts as well as exploring the role of the Delphi approach in integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasts.     

我国城乡二元结构:演化、现状及协调路径选择

我国城乡二元结构的矛盾历史悠久。即使在新中国成立后,也始终没能走出历史遗留给我们的这种结构性困境。文章拟从建国以来我国城乡关系的演变及现状、我国城乡关系的重要性及造成城乡二元结构的主要原因的分析中,探寻解决城乡二元结构矛盾的主要途经,即城市化、工业化和信息化将是解决城乡问题的重要路径,促进城乡国民整体素质的提高则是解决城乡问题的必然要求。     

中国省区工业产业专业化程度实证研究:1988～2002

本文通过构造产业地方专业化基尼系数,利用工业产业增加值数据,直接测算从1988年到2002年每个省区的工业产业专业化水平,发现我国省区产业结构出现了“两头高,中间低”的格局。根据各个省区十几年的地方专业化基尼系数的整体变化趋势,把省区划分为降低型、U型、增高型和大致不变型,并发现中西部的专业化程度提高,而东部大部分省区的产业结构经历了一个调整的过程,地方专业化基尼系数先降低,之后有些发达省份又有所提高。     

测量不确定度估算中协方差的两类评定

论述了当测量不确定度评定中出现相同原因导致某些不确定度分量相关时,用Ａ类方法计算的实质,同时提出了采用Ｂ类方法的可能性,指明按系统效应导致的分量与随机效应导致的分量的大小比,用Ｂ类方法计算相关系数的具体步骤。给出了一般情况下的计算结果。     

原油动态计量技术在仪长管道上的应用

介绍了仪长管道原油动态交接计量的现状,探讨了原油动态计量交接中误差产生的原因,分析了流量计、原油密度、原油含水量、油品温度和压力以及其它因素引起的误差,提出了消减误差的方法及措施。     

Involvement theory in constructing bloggers' intention to purchase travel products

Blogs recently have demonstrated their enormous marketing potential, and more and more travel advertisements are being posted in blogs. In light of this observation, this study aims to provide insights into the structural relationship among travel bloggers' involvement level, the advertising effect from blog messages, and travel bloggers' intention to purchase travel products. A travel blogger's purchase intention model was constructed and empirically tested. A total of 900 questionnaires were distributed to identified travel bloggers; 398 valid responses were returned. The data were examined with Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The results demonstrated the positive impact resulting from the ad effect as well as the ad effect on purchase intention, which could be verified in travel blog environments. It also indicated that high-involvement travel bloggers are more likely to form favourable impressions with regard to ads in travel blogs. Travel blogs play a positive role in the processing of ad messages; brand management is essential to business marketers since brand attitude is the most influential factor related to the ad effect on purchase intention. Meanwhile, while ad attitude is not significantly effective concerning purchase intention, it remains essential in forming brand attitudes. Several implications for posting advertisements in travel blogs will be discussed and suggested in this paper.     

An exploratory study of earnings management detectability,analyst coverage and the impact of IFRS adoption: Evidence from China

Analysts serving as external monitors to managers is a topic of considerable interest in the analyst coverage literature. There are two outcomes of analyst coverage studies: curbing and stimulating earnings management. However, recent studies (such as Yu, 2008) only provide evidence supporting the curbing side. Given the fact that the data of these studies focus on developed markets and the finding of Rodríguez-Pérez and Hemmen (2010) that external governance mechanisms may stimulate earnings management in an opaque information environment, we conjecture whether stimulating side would be dominant in emerging markets. China offers a valuable setting for us to test the question. Using the data of China capital market from 2003 to 2009, we find that analyst coverage stimulates earnings management through above-the-line items (ALIs) where earnings management cannot be easily detected, and curbs earnings management through below-the-line items (BLIs) where earnings management can be easily detected. We also find that the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in China does create many new opportunities for managers’ earnings management but does not significantly improve the monitoring effect of analyst coverage. We only find that compared to those without analyst coverage, firms with analyst coverage have a lower level of earnings management through BLIs after IFRS adoption. These findings suggest that information opacity may weaken the monitoring effect of external corporate governance mechanisms and high quality accounting standards in the literal sense may not enhance the monitoring effect of external corporate governance mechanisms if it is not compatible with the market’s institutional environment. In addition, we find that firms with earnings meeting the benchmark have a lower level of earnings management, which indicates that bright-line accounting based rules used in emerging capital markets may constrain the managers’ behavior.     

The Benefits of Political Connection: Evidence from Individual Bank-Loan Contracts

This paper investigates whether political connections improve the access of firms to financing. We propose three hypotheses to prove that political benefits exist. First, do politically connected firms obtain preferential treatment for bank loans? Second, if these firms do obtain preferential treatment, do they benefit from government-owned banks (GOBs) more than from privately owned banks? Third, is the preferential treatment from GOBs enhanced during presidential election years? We examine these three questions by using detailed data on political connections and 69,332 individual bank-loan contracts for listed firms in Taiwan from 1991 to 2008. The empirical results generally support our hypotheses.