The new international economic order: The beneficiaries

The two substantive elements of the programme of action for a ‘new international economic order’ (NIEO) that have been most stressed by developing countries are those dealing with primary commodity prices and relief from debt service burdens. The provision of adequate amounts of official development assistance (ODA) has received less stress. An examination of 75 oil-importing developing countries for which adequate data were available grouped by per capita product, shows that if the priorities of the NIEO are carried out the principal beneficiaries would be the wealthier developing countries. For the very poorest countries, those for which the existing order has provided little in the way of material benefits, the most critical external element in helping them meet their development aspirations would be more ODA.     

The international environment for adjustment in developing countries

The international disequilibrium of the 1970s imposed on developing countries a burden of adjustment out of all proportion to their degree of responsibility for the imbalances incurred. The application of traditional stabilization programmes resulted, in a number of cases, in severe disruption of development. There was, moreover, a perverse distribution of the burden of adjustment, the poorest countries suffering most. A number of changes in international policy and practice are required to avoid a repetition of this experience. In particular, special provision is needed for cases in which deficits are largely of external origin, involving more adequate IMF financing at low conditionality so as to permit a stretching out of the period of adjustment.     

Stabilization: The political economy of overkill

This paper considers whether national and international aspects of the IMF's stabilization programmes during the 1970s and early 1980s have resulted in a process of ‘overkill’ — or, in other words, a process of economic retrenchment which went much further than was strictly necessary in terms of what could have been regarded as reasonable objectives. In the international context, the author describes how the attack on inflation has become an end in itself, at the expense of other stated objectives of the IMF, thus creating a distortion of its priorities. The paper discusses errors of diagnosis which have led to this disorientation and explains why deflationary policies should not be regarded as a panacea. The paper then considers the nead for equity and efficiency in the distribution of the political and economic costs of adjustment.The next section of this paper discusses the assumptions underlying the IMF's treatment of Fund members and to what extent ‘even-handedness’ in the application of stabilization measures may result in inequality of burden-sharing among borrowers. Problems related to monetarist theories and the consequent policies are examined, followed by a consideration of the dangers involved in devising ‘straightforward’ performance criteria in the form of precise monetary targets that can readily be monitored by the IMF. This means of evaluating the national adjustment policies' success is seen to be unsatisfactory, viz. the frequency of stand-by arrangement breakdowns and mistakes in forecasting.The paper concludes that the concept of unilateral adjustment is not an acceptable basis for IMF supervision of the international monetary system. In addition, care should be taken to avoid overkill in determining the degree and character of adjustment needed in stabilization programmes. One possible solution to the extra burden imposed on the LDCs might be a liberalization of the compensatory financing facility with the objective of applying the same kind of regime to imports as to exports.     

Regional Clusters, Location Tournaments and Incentives: An Empirical Analysis of Factors Attracting Japanese Investment to Singapore

This paper develops a new model for testing the role of incentives in FDI location choice by integrating the theory of the MNE with new approaches to location theory. From the theory our paper derives four testable hypotheses related to the role of policy variables in the location choice of Japanese MNEs in Singapore. Specifically we test for the existence of regional investment clusters and national tournaments as key elements in the FDI location decision. We also test for differences in the incentive preferences of export-oriented versus market-oriented investors and for first investments compared to reinvestments. Using survey data from 134 Japanese MNEs our study confirmed the existence of a Southeast Asian regional investment cluster and a location tournament between regional states. Our study also found that different incentives attracted export-oriented and market-oriented investors, but there were no significant differences in the incentive preferences of first investors compared to re-investors. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Strategies for materiel management executives

With a more centralist political philosophy emulating on Capital Hill, this article focuses on potential effects on materiel management executives of a half-competitive (managed care) and a half-regulatory (Medicare and Medicaid) environment in organizing and financing health services. It predicts a far more contentious field; further cutbacks in nonpatient care personnel, including senior positions for material management executives; the centralization of tertiary services; and the possibility of additional regulatory approaches to protect the public.     

The baby boom,the baby bust,and the housing market

This paper explores the impact of demographic changes on the housing market in the US, 1st by reviewing the facts about the Baby Boom, 2nd by linking age and housing demand using census data for 1970 and 1980, 3rd by computing the effect of demand on price of housing and on the quantity of residential capital, and last by constructing a theoretical model to plot the predictability of the jump in demand caused by the Baby Boom. The Baby Boom in the U.S. lasted from 1946-1964, with a peak in 1957 when 4.3 million babies were born. In 1980 19.7% of the population were aged 20-30, compared to 13.3% in 1960. Demand for housing was modeled for a given household from census data, resulting in the finding that demand rises sharply at age 20-30, then declines after age 40 by 1% per year. Thus between 1970 and 1980 the real value of housing for an adult at any given age jumped 50%, while the real disposable personal income per capita rose 22%. The structure of demand is such that the swelling in the rate of growth in housing demand peaked in 1980, with a rate of 1.66% per year. Housing demand and real price of housing were highly correlated and inelastic. If this relationship holds in the future, the real price of housing should fall about 3% per year, or 47% by 2007. The theoretical model, a variation of the Poterba model, ignoring inflation and taxation, suggests that fluctuations in prices caused by changes in demand are not foreseen by the market, even though they are predictable in principle 20 years in advance. As the effects of falling housing prices become apparent, there may be a potential for economic instability, but people may be induced to save more because their homes will no longer provide the funds for retirement.     

Transitioning to IFRS in Japan: Corporate Perceptions of Costs and Benefits

This paper examines the ongoing transition to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Japan with a particular focus on recent institutional developments and corporate concerns. While Japan has committed to the convergence of Japanese generally accepted accounting principles (J‐GAAP) with IFRS it has not as yet formally adopted IFRS. This paper reports on Japanese corporate perceptions of the likely costs and benefits of adopting and implementing IFRS using survey data collected from senior financial executives of 292 Japanese listed companies in 2013–14. Our findings reveal that Japanese companies identify a number of major areas of general concern with the adoption and implementation of IFRS. Most importantly, uncertainty regarding the interpretation of standards followed by staff training, IT systems, technical knowledge and differences between J‐GAAP and IFRS were reported as major concerns. Our survey also highlights that revenue recognition, depreciation, consolidated financial statements, financial statement presentation and the retrospective application of IFRS were viewed as key IFRS accounting issues. While the large majority of companies expected a moderate degree of benefits to arise from IFRS, substantial benefits were perceived more likely to apply to large and overseas listed companies mainly arising from improvements in the international comparability of financial statements.     

Brain wave analysis. An electroencephalographic technique used for evaluating the communications-effect of advertising

The results from the authors's applied research studies of communications-effect and electroencephalographic (EEG) recording, which took place over the last ten years, employing thousands of respondents, are integrated in this paper. Application of EEG methodology to ad research, rather than theory, is stressed. Brain Wave Analysis

1 Brain Wave Analysis is a service mark of NeuroCommunication Research Laboratories, Inc., for its brand of EEG service.

, an EEG technique, is described. A positive relationship determined between Brain Wave Analysis and sales is discussed, as well as various applications such as “brain typing” the target market. The application of Brain Wave Analysis in determining effective advertising frequency is discussed as it relates to Krugman's three exposure theory. The continuing development of EEG analysis is briefly discussed.     

Mortality change,the uncertainty effect,and retirement

We examine the role of declining mortality in explaining the rise of retirement over the course of the twentieth century. We construct a model in which individuals make labor/leisure choices over their lifetimes subject to uncertainty about their dates of death. In an environment with high mortality, an individual who saves for retirement faces a high risk of dying before he can enjoy his planned leisure. In this case, the optimal plan is for people to work until they die. As mortality falls, however, it becomes optimal to plan, and save for, retirement. We analyze our model using two mathematical formulations of the survival function as well as data on actual changes in the US life table over the last century, and show that this “uncertainty effect” of declining mortality would have more than outweighed the “horizon effect” by which rising life expectancy would have led to later retirement.