Are EU trade preferences really effective? An impact evaluation assessment of the Southern Mediterranean Countries’ case

This work assesses the causal impact of the EU trade preferences granted to the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) in agriculture and fishery products over the period 2004–2014. It overcomes some of the weaknesses of previous assessments and presents several methodological improvements. Firstly, it relies on a continuous treatment – i.e. preferential margins – to capture the ‘average treatment effect’ of trade preferences, rather than on a binary treatment based on dummy variables. Secondly, it uses highly disaggregated data at sectoral level in order to evaluate properly the preferential treatment. Thirdly, it applies a non-parametric matching technique for continuous treatment – specifically, a generalized propensity score matching. The results show, on the one hand, that the impact of the EU preferences is positive and significant on SMCs trade and is better evaluated using impact evaluation techniques. On the other hand, they demonstrate that the relationship between preferences and trade flows is asymmetric and warn against the risk of providing too much of a good thing. These results raise important issues for policy-making. First, they demonstrate that raising the level of preferences is not the solution to foster the SMCs trade towards EU. Second, that the policy-makers should put more emphasis on complementary factors other than trade barriers.     

The transmission of partner mental health to individual life satisfaction: Estimates from a longitudinal household survey

This paper investigates the relationship between partner's mental health and individual life satisfaction, using panel data and calculating the monetary valuation of mental illness. Accounting for measurement error and endogeneity of income, partners' mental health has a significant association with individual well-being. The additional income needed to compensate someone living with a partner with a mental condition is substantial (ranges between USD 33,000 and USD 50,000). Further, individuals do not show adaptation to partners' mental illness. The results have implications for policy-makers wishing to value the effects of policies that aim to impact on mental health and levels of well-being.     

Financial Education Interventions Targeting Immigrants and Children of Immigrants: Results from a Randomized Control Trial

We document that immigrants in the United States differ from natives in several aspects relevant for their financial decision making. Based on these differences, we designed novel financial education materials targeted at US immigrants and their children and evaluated their effectiveness using a randomized control trial. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first rigorous evaluation of financial education programs targeted at this population. Compared to a control group, the groups that received the one‐time educational intervention were more likely to correctly answer financial knowledge questions immediately after the intervention. The estimated effects of this one‐time intervention on knowledge were large, but most of them faded away after six months. Moreover, we find little effect of the treatments on intended financial behavior measures, both immediately and six months later. Our results point to the efficacy of this type of educational material in informing immigrants and their children about important financial information that they are unfamiliar with, including information related to their immigrant status. However, they also suggest that a priority for future research should be to test whether repeated opportunities for learning can increase financial knowledge retention and lead to behavior change.     

To post or not to post: social media sharing and sporting event performance

Social networks are becoming increasingly important for consumers, especially in the context of sport, where the service experience is highly intense. Few studies have combined subjective event performance variables and social network variables to analyze social network content sharing by sports practitioners. This article investigates the use of social networks in relation to sporting events. An empirical study examined the role of social network variables and sporting event performance variables in social media use. The sample consisted of 410 triathletes (72.2% male) aged between 18 and 66 years (mean 37.03 ± 8.62). Four analyses were performed using fuzzy‐set qualitative comparative analysis to examine the causes of sharing comments through social media, sharing photos and videos on social media, participant satisfaction, and word‐of‐mouth (WOM). The event's general image was a necessary condition in all cases. The combination of participants’ satisfaction and positive event image and the combination of social network use and positive event image lead to social network content sharing by athletes. The combination of positive event image and participant satisfaction leads to a positive WOM.     

The Trade Competitiveness of Southern Emerging Economies: A Multidimensional Approach Through Cluster Analysis

This paper investigates the trade competitiveness of the new emerging Southern economies – China, India, Brazil and South Africa (CIBS) – with respect to their main global partners. Starting from the commonly held view that countries with trade patterns similar to those of emerging countries are likely to suffer losses, we propose a multidimensional approach based on cluster analysis, both crisp and fuzzy, as an alternative strategy for assessing similarity in global trade patterns. On the basis of key trade characteristics drawn from the diverse strands of trade theory, we assess the relative position of CIBS within global trade patterns and their evolution over time. Unlike previous studies, our results do not support the hypothesis of the presence of a competitiveness threat from Southern emerging countries towards the main industrialised economies.     

Investigating the moderating effect of information sources on cruise tourist behaviour in a port of call

The aim of the study is to examine how destination knowledge acquired by cruisers through different information sources (online versus others) can moderate destination image formation and the relationship of image–satisfaction–behavioural intentions in a port of call. A multiple group analysis with partial least square method was carried out using data collected from a major tourism destination in Spain: Valencia. The findings revealed knowledge acquired through different information sources is a moderator of the image–satisfaction and satisfaction–behavioural intention relationships. The destination image formation is also significantly different from one group to the other. The findings of this study have a number of practical implications.     

A Comparison of Consensus and BVAR Macroeconomic Forecasts

This paper provides a one-month-ahead, macroeconomic, Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) forecasting approach that offers several advantages over conventional short-term forecasting procedures. In particular, it produces more accurate forecasts than the Bloomberg consensus forecasts, on average, for 20 major macroeconomic variables. In addition to a quantitative comparison of BVAR and Bloomberg consensus forecast, the paper focuses on five important areas of macroeconomic forecasting: the role of short-term macroeconomic forecasting, the importance of a robust forecasting approach, the importance of timing of data releases, forecast evaluation criteria, and the importance of changing model specifications as conditions warrant.     

Does intellectual monopoly stimulate or stifle innovation?

This study develops an R&D-based growth model with vertical and horizontal innovation to shed some light on the current debate on whether patent protection stimulates or stifles innovation. We analyze the effects of patent protection in the form of blocking patents. We show that patent protection changes the direction of innovation by having asymmetric effects on vertical innovation (i.e., quality improvement) and horizontal innovation (i.e., variety expansion). Calibrating the model and simulating transition dynamics, we find that strengthening the effect of blocking patents stifles vertical innovation and decreases economic growth but increases social welfare due to an increase in horizontal innovation. In light of this finding, we argue that in order to properly analyze the growth and welfare implications of patents, it is important to consider their often neglected compositional effects on vertical and horizontal innovation.