MNC foreign investment and industrial disasters: The moderating role of technological,safety management,and philanthropic capabilities

Research Summary: We investigate how industrial disasters can discourage FDI and how MNCs' technological, safety management, and philanthropic capabilities can moderate these effects. Using two unique panel data sets of entry and expansion of U.S. wholly‐owned manufacturing subsidiaries overseas, we found that industrial disasters are associated with reduced foreign entry of wholly‐owned subsidiaries in the disaster industry, but not for all firms in the host country experiencing the disaster. We also found that MNCs' technological, safety management, and philanthropic capabilities can, in some cases, positively moderate the negative relationships between industrial disasters and the foreign entry and expansion of wholly‐owned subsidiaries. Additionally, three‐way interactions with government stability suggest that technological and safety management capabilities substitute government stability in managing industrial disasters, while philanthropic capability complements government stability. Managerial Summary: How can MNCs' technological, safety management, and philanthropic capabilities overcome the effects of industrial disasters such as chemical spills and explosions in host countries? Our results show that industrial disasters are associated with reduced foreign entry of wholly‐owned subsidiaries in the industry in which the industrial disaster occurs, but not for other firms operating in the country experiencing the disaster. However, an MNC's technological capability can, in general, lower the negative consequences of industrial disasters in both the entry and expansion of its wholly‐owned subsidiaries. Regarding the institutional quality of a host country, the results imply that MNCs should develop philanthropic capability when the government stability of the host country is strong, and develop technological and safety management capabilities when the government stability is weak.     

The Reallocation of Labour and the Lifecycle of Firms

This paper uses a unique US panel dataset of firms and workers toinvestigate the relationship between the firm's lifecycle and the reallocation of labour. We distinguish labour reallocation associated with job reallocation, and reallocation of workers over a fixed configuration of jobs. We find that firms at the beginning and end of their lifecycles contribute disproportionately to labour market lows, with sorting between firms particularly important among young firms, whereas sorting within firms is moreimportant among mature firms. We also find that high churning lows are associated with a lower probability of a young firm surviving.     

Adaptive forecasting in the presence of recent and ongoing structural change

We consider time series forecasting in the presence of ongoing structural change where both the time series dependence and the nature of the structural change are unknown. Methods that downweight older data, such as rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially weighted moving averages, known to be robust to historical structural change, are found also to be useful in the presence of ongoing structural change in the forecast period. A crucial issue is how to select the degree of downweighting, usually defined by an arbitrary tuning parameter. We make this choice data-dependent by minimising the forecast mean square error, and provide a detailed theoretical analysis of our proposal. Monte Carlo results illustrate the methods. We examine their performance on 97 US macro series. Forecasts using data-based tuning of the data discount rate are shown to perform well.     

Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.     

Organisational consequences of asymmetries in task dependence: the moderating role of HR practices

This study integrates recent advances in interdependence theory with the literature on commitment‐based HR practices. New research on interdependence theory suggests that differences, or asymmetries, in task dependence among organisational members can cause interests to diverge. Prior research has shown that this can negatively affect interpersonal relations, individual outcomes and team processes. However, these insights gained on the dyadic, individual and team levels of analysis have not yet been explored at the organisational level and, until now, no research had yet connected these advances in interdependence theory to the field of HRM research. Hence, the current study investigates (a) whether asymmetries in task dependence do (or do not) matter at the organisational level and affect organisational effectiveness, (b) why this relationship may work by assessing a key mediator, namely, trust climate and (c) if and how these relationships can be altered by commitment‐based HR practices. Our moderated‐mediation model was tested and fully supported by a multi‐source data set of 8,390 employees from 67 organisations.     

Transient Jobs and Lifetime Jobs: Dualism in the British Labour Market

How long does a job last in Britain? We find that many workers have very short jobs and many have very long jobs. We estimate that in 1990, 40 percent of men were in jobs that will last 20 years or more. On the other hand, 24 percent were in jobs lasting less than five years. We conclude that the labour market is still capable of offering ‘lifetime jobs’ to many workers. Policy analysis of issues such as reform of the welfare state, pensions, and training should take note that reports of the death of ‘jobs for life’ appear to be exaggerated.     

经济增长与农村反贫困

本文利用中国家庭收入项目(CHIP)调查数据,估计了1988-2002年期间的中国农村绝对贫困、收入差距的变化趋势及收入增长和收入分配变化对农村贫困的影响.根据CHIP调查数据所绘制的贫困发生曲线表明,不论把绝对贫困线确定在哪里,在该时期内中国农村贫困都在显著下降.贫困指数分解和面板数据回归结果均显示收入增长是导致贫困下降的主要原因.     

The determinants of the location of foreign direct investment in UK regions†

This article employs a database of over 2000 observations of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects in UK regions. We analyse this data by means of various multinomial and conditional logit models in order to identify the major determinants of the location choices of these inward investments. Having controlled for the various characteristics of inward investing firms, the projects and the regions, our results suggest that existing regional specialization is the single most important determining feature of where inward FDI locates. In addition, London is seen to benefit primarily by the immigration of new investments, the majority of which are related to service sector activities.     

The effects of health aid on child health promotion in developing countries: cross-country evidence

Although epidemiological knowledge in relation to child health has improved in the last few decades, around 3 million children die each year in developing countries from preventable diseases. The international development community views increased immunization coverage for children as an important step in eliminating or reducing these deaths. Many developing countries have very limited resources to tackle major health problems and have to rely on external finance. This article examines the impact of foreign aid devoted to the health sector on child health promotion in developing countries. Two proxies for child health promotion are used: (a) immunization against measles and (b) immunization against Diphtheria–Pertussis–Tetanus (DPT). A range of model specifications and panel data econometric techniques are applied to data covering the period 1990 to 2005. This article finds a positive and statistically significant link between health aid and the measures of child health promotion.