Open interest,volume, and volatility: evidence from Taiwan futures markets

This paper examines the relationships amongst volatility, total trading volume (TVOL) and total open interest (TOI) for three Taiwan stock index futures markets as well as the role of the latter two variables in the dynamics of GARCH modeling and forecasting. From both ex-post and ex-ante perspectives, we study this issue by using the VAR model and augmented GARCH-type models, respectively. For the GARCH-type models, we employ both symmetric and asymmetric models augmented with lagged logs in TOI and/or TVOL. We find that whether addition of these two variables helps the basic GARCH models predict future volatility depends upon the sample period examined for all three sets of futures. Nonetheless, the best three models for out-of-sample volatility forecasting in the MSE sense are generally the augmented models for all sub-intervals and all three futures contracts.     

Microeconometric models of infrequently purchased goods: An application to household pork consumption

The double-hurdle and infrequency-of-purchase models are generalized with the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation in the dependent variable. The resulting specifications feature more flexible parameterization and error distributions than the untransformed models. Using the 1987–88 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey data on household pork consumption, a nonnested test suggests that the IHS double-hurdle model provides better characterization of the data-generating process than the IHS infrequency-of-purchase model but the elasticities derived from these models are similar. Own-price effects on the probability and level of consumption are negative and significant, but the elasticities are small. Income and cross-price effects are not significant. Household age composition, education, gender of meal planner, and race are among the demographic variables that affect consumption.     

Diffusion of mobile telephony: An empirical study in Taiwan

Mobile telephony penetration is a major indicator of mobile telephony diffusion. Taiwan had a mobile telephony penetration of 108% in 2002, ranking first in the world. This study analyzes this accelerated diffusion in terms of growth model and determinants of the diffusion rate. To eliminate the inherent uncertainty associated with choosing the optimal growth model, this study compares the performance of three conventional models, namely Gompertz, Logistic and Bass, to identify the most appropriate model, and to distinguish the forces driving the diffusion rate. Empirical results indicate that the most appropriate model is the Logistic model. Network externalities, which this study shows to be the same as the imitation effect in the Bass model, explain the superiority of the Logistic model. Moreover, market competition, which markedly reduces service prices, is identified as a primary driver of the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Taiwan. Economic conditions, technological innovation and number of operators are insignificant factors. Finally, mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed-line telephony in Taiwan.     

Are multinationals exporting jobs? The case of Taiwan

Does offshore production always result in job exportation? Using firm‐level data for Taiwanese multinationals that allow us to avoid reverse causality issues, this paper finds that while increasing offshore production has a negative impact on the demand for domestic manufacturing workers, this is not the case for domestic research and development workers who are often more skilled. The results also suggest that for Taiwan, there is geographical fragmentation of production activities in such a way that more skilled jobs are maintained domestically and less‐skilled jobs are exported to other developing countries. These findings confirm the prediction of the knowledge‐capital model.     

Investigating guanxi dimensions and relationship outcomes: Insights from Sino-Anglo business relationships

This study aims to develop and test a concept for improving Anglo-Chinese business relationships. By piecing together and incorporating both Chinese and western relationship constructs into a cohesive framework and testing this on a sample of Taiwanese importers, the study conceptually and empirically advances our understanding of the discipline further. Specifically, three facets of guanxi, namely ganqing (an affective element), renqing (reciprocation and favor), and xinren (personal trust) are conceptualized to determine cooperation and coordination, which in turn lead to improved performance. Based on a sample of 208 buyers (surveying perceptions of their relationships with Anglo suppliers), we provide empirical support for our concept and reveal that ganqing, renqing and xinren are crucial for fostering the development of such Sino-Anglo relationships. By providing an international flavor in terms of the constructs outlined and the importer-exporter context, the study provides fresh insights to help broaden our horizon further and understand more about relationships in an international context. Several implications are extracted from the study which a) western marketers importantly need to practice as they grapple to enter Chinese markets and nurture business relations, b) Chinese buyers can consider when managing their supplier portfolios and c) academics can use to help measure important relational constructs and undertaking research in a Chinese context.     

A Sample Selection Approach to Censored Demand Systems

The multivariate sample selection model is extended to a nonlinear equation system with partial selection and applied to household meat consumption in China. Elasticity estimates differ from those obtained from conventional maximum likelihood and Tobit estimates. Chinese meat products are gross complements while net substitution also exists in some cases.     

Are analysts’ earnings forecasts more accurate when accompanied by cash flow forecasts?

We examine whether analysts’ earnings forecasts are more accurate when they also issue cash flow forecasts. We find that (i) analysts’ earnings forecasts issued together with cash flow forecasts are more accurate than those not accompanied by cash flow forecasts, and (ii) analysts’ earnings forecasts reflect a better understanding of the implications of current earnings for future earnings when they are accompanied by cash flow forecasts. These results are consistent with analysts adopting a more structured and disciplined approach to forecasting earnings when they also issue cash flow forecasts. Finally, we find that more accurate cash flow forecasts decrease the likelihood of analysts being fired, suggesting that cash flow forecast accuracy is relevant to analysts’ career outcomes.     

The measurement of guanxi: Introducing the GRX scale

This study posits and examines a measurement scale for measuring guanxi based on three Chinese relational constructs - ganqing, renqing and xinren. Focusing on Anglo-Chinese buyer-seller relationships, the research reports the findings from six qualitative in-depth interviews and survey data obtained from over 200 Taiwanese trading companies. Based on exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses the findings from the final second-order confirmatory factor analysis of the guanxi model identified 11 items for measuring ganqing, renqing, xinren and guanxi respectively. The results offer a useful starting point in order for business practitioners to assess their guanxi and at the same time provide academics with a scale for operationalizing the measurement of guanxi.