Statistics Research at Bell Labs in the Regulated Monopoly Era

Industrial research in the United States took hold and grew during much of the 20th century. Bell Labs, a corporate component of the Bell System, was perhaps the premier example. The period from 1925, when Bell Labs was formed, to 1984, when the Bell System was broken up following a government antitrust lawsuit, is of special interest because the system operated as a regulated monopoly during that period. Telephone subscribers effectively paid for research and development in their monthly phone bills, which provided an element of financial stability for the labs. Statistics research was one of many types that thrived, much to the benefit of the Bell System, its customers, and the science of statistics. The purpose of this article is to review, explain, and illustrate the circumstances that contributed to this success and to raise the question of how modern corporations, operating in fully competitive environments, might achieve some of the same benefits.     

Fiscal implications of climate change

Climate change is an externality problem—so the challenges that arise in limiting it and dealing with the effects that remain are largely fiscal. The structure of the problem, however, and the uncertainty which surrounds it, make the design of proper policy responses particularly complex. This paper provides a primer on the fiscal implications of climate change, the aim being to provide a (reasonably) quick and comprehensive overview of the main analytical issues and lessons learned.     

Capitalization and the Voucher: An Analysis of Precinct Returns from California''s Proposition 174

In 1993, Californians voted on a school voucher initiative. We hypothesize that homeowners in good school districts understood the voucher to be a threat to their property values and thus voted against it. Precinct returns from Los Angeles County confirm this hypothesis. We also examine an alternative hypothesis explaining the relationship between school quality and precinct returns. According to the alternative, voters perceived the initiative to be a referendum on public school quality. To distinguish between the two hypotheses, we compare the voting patterns of homeowners and renters. The comparison does not favor one hypothesis over the other.     

A UK Test of an Inflation‐Adjusted Ohlson Model

Abstract:   This paper conducts a UK test of a version of the Ohlson (1995) model. We should only expect abnormal earnings to revert to zero if the book value of assets is economically meaningful. In this paper we make use of the property revaluations common in UK accounts, but estimate other asset values and earnings in inflation‐adjusted terms. This, we argue, gives rise to estimates of abnormal earnings that can reasonably be expected to revert to zero. We then test this modified model on UK data using the Dechow, Hutton and Sloan (1999) method. In line with the predictions of the Ohlson model, we find that these modified abnormal earnings appear to mean revert, and that a first order autoregressive process is sufficient to capture the persistence of UK real abnormal earnings. The modified abnormal earnings model in general predicts one year ahead earnings more successfully than an unmodified model. Furthermore, for much of the sample period, one year ahead predictions of abnormal earnings are better for the real model during periods of higher inflation. The undervaluation problem found in prior studies appears to be replaced with an overvaluation problem in the real model which is more acute during periods of high inflation. Last, we show that an estimate of the model based upon an industry level specification appears to perform no better than a market‐wide specification of the model.     

Book reviews

The Co-operation Phenomena: Prc)spects for Small Firms and the Small EconomiesDermont O'Doherty (Ed.)London, Irish Science and Technology Ajrency, Graham & Trotman, 1990, 270pp.

Flexible Manufacturing Technologies & International Competitiveness J. Tidd London, Pinter, 1991, ll3pp., £35.00.

Technology Strategy and the Firm: Management and Public Policy Mark Dodgson (Ed.)London, Longman, 1990, 252pp., £25.00 pb.

Computerization in Developing Countries: Model and Reality Per Lind London, Routledge, 1990, 175pp., £35.00 hb.

The Fifth Branch—Science Advisers as Policy Makers Sheila Jasonoff Cambridge, MA, Haroard University Press, 1990, 302pp., £22.50.     

Frequent issuers’ influence on long-run post-issuance returns

Prior studies conclude that firms’ equity underperforms following many individual sorts of external financing. These conclusions naturally raise significant questions about market efficiency and/or about the techniques used to measure long-run “abnormal returns.” Rather than concentrating on a single security type or issuance, we examine long-run performance following any and all sorts of security issuances. Initial financing events do not associate with underperformance; however, subsequent financings do. Our results suggest that negative post-issuance returns have nothing to do with the specific type of security issued, and everything to do with the number of types of securities issued.