Multiparty Competition, Founding Elections and Political Business Cycles in Africa

Political business cycle (PBC) theory and empirics typicallyassume that elections are competitive. Yet, as empirical workon PBCs turns increasingly to developing countries for evidence,this assumption becomes untenable. We propose and test two empiricalhypotheses regarding PBCs: first, we should only see cycleswhen elections involve multiparty competition; secondly, weshould see larger cycles in ‘founding’ elections.Using a new indicator of multiparty competition and macroeconomicdata from Africa, we find strong support for our first hypothesisand moderate support for the second. These findings have implicationsfor democratic transitions and the compatibility of economicand political reform in nascent democracies.     

Disruptions in Supply Networks: A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach

Supply disruptions are attracting growing attention. Even in geographically, politically and economically stable locations, companies are exposed to disruptions, because they depend on their suppliers and suppliers’ suppliers. The analysis of these disruptions helps mitigate risks: for example, instead of relying on local measures such as safety stock or insurance, a company can introduce new supply contracts or backup risky suppliers. In this article, we analyze risks caused by supplier disruptions by introducing concepts from probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is a widely employed methodology for the risk analysis of complex engineering systems. We apply PRA to examine simple networks such as triads analytically, and use simulation to analyze disruption risks in random networks of realistic size. We also illustrate how PRA can support strategic decisions such as whether or not to use single or multiple suppliers; which suppliers are more risky than others; and what impacts the complexity of the supply base has on the reliability of the supplier network.     

The Role of Schedule Mismatch in Ending Inventory Decisions in the Presence of Price Cuts

In the high‐tech sector, component suppliers are often able to offer preannounced price cuts (price markdowns) to manufacturers due to technological innovation that allows them to produce the existing components at lower costs. In this context, manufacturers (buyers) are primarily concerned with their existing inventory carried beyond the price cuts in order to lower inventory costs. In this research, we develop a newsvendor‐based decision model for this problem based on our experience in industry and a focal case study environment. Specifically, we consider the issue of delivery and demand uncertainties, and the interplay of the buying firm's operating hours and the transportation carrier's delivery hours, which combine to influence inventory costs and order fulfillment. We illustrate the results with numerical examples and sensitivity analyses, using a real world data set. We found that stockout cost plays a critical role in the ending inventory decisions. Lowering stockout cost will benefit buyers from lower risk of obsolescence costs.     

Co-evolutionary policy processes: Understanding innovative economies and future resilience

The great debates of most fields associated with economic development rest on emergence versus intention and the interplay between the two. The ‘residual’ of unexplained divergence between goal and outcome, in this sense, can be ascribed in part to the interplay, or co-evolution, between policies (intention) and self-organizing (emergent) development. Do public policy and economic development co-evolve in technologically innovative economies, and if so, how? This paper discusses the basic premise that the gap between economic development strategies and their poor implementation cannot simply be removed by creating better-intended strategies, tools or institutions. The analysis uses evolutionary thinking for an analysis of economic development, and ends with some postulates for future study on innovative regions and the concept of resilience.     

Import demand behavior in Africa: Some new evidence

Some African economies have experienced increases in the level of their foreign exchange reserves as well as increases in their import volume. Theory suggests that as the level of exchange reserves increases, it may affect the demand for imports since more funds will be available for imports. This paper examines import demand behavior in three African economies, namely Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. An empirical analysis of import demand behavior is presented, based on the dynamic error-correction model, which allows an explicit parameterized division of effects into long-run influences, short-term adjustment and error-correction term. It uses econometric techniques organized around Johansen and Harris–Inder cointegration analyses; fully modified OLS, dynamic OLS and non-linear OLS to estimate long-run import demand functions.     

U.S. corporate bond returns: A study of market anomalies based on broad industry groups

We examine three major U.S. corporate bond market indices for calendar-based anomalies over the period 1982-2002. The analysis covers the entire corporate bond market and two broad industry classes: industrials and utilities. We find mixed support for the weekend effect in the overall bond index and the industrials index and to a lesser extent in the utilities index. We also show strong evidence of a January effect. This paper not only updates the study of corporate bond market anomalies through the period 2002 but also is the first examination based on broad industry classes.     

Health status,function, productivity,and costs among individuals with idiopathic painful peripheral neuropathy with small fiber involvement in the United States: results from a retrospective chart review and cross-sectional survey

Objective:

To characterize the burden of idiopathic painful peripheral neuropathy with small fiber involvement (idiopathic SFN) by pain severity in the US.

Methods:

One hundred previously diagnosed idiopathic SFN subjects were enrolled during routine office visits. Subjects completed a one-time questionnaire, and investigators reported clinical characteristics and healthcare resource use, based on 6 month retrospective chart review. Annualized direct and indirect costs were estimated. Results were stratified across pain severity groups.

Results:

Mean age was 63.5 years; 53.0% were female; 76.0% had moderate or severe pain. Most common comorbidities were sleep disturbance/insomnia (37.0%), anxiety (34.0%), and depressive symptoms (33.0%). Overall mean health status (0.59; ?0.11–1.00 scale), physical and mental health (31.7 and 45.6, respectively, 0–100 scale), sleep index (45.1; 0–100 scale), and pain interference with function (5.0; 0–10 scale) differed by pain severity, with worse outcomes among those with greater pain (all p?Conclusions:

Idiopathic SFN subjects with pain experience moderate or severe pain, which negatively impacts health status, function, and productivity, and leads to substantial direct and indirect costs.     

Does stock trading volume signal future dividends? Evidence from Iberian firms

Portuguese Economic Journal - In the study we test the theory that financial markets can provide relevant information about forthcoming corporate events. More specifically, we examine the ability...     

Occupational sex segregation in agriculture: Evidence on gender norms and socio-emotional skills in Nigeria

Occupational sex segregation is a key driver of the gender gap in earnings. Using data from 11,691 aspiring agribusiness entrepreneurs in Nigeria, this article explores factors that drive sectoral choice, gender differences in the choice decision, and especially the role played by norms around gender roles. When given a choice of 11 agricultural value chains in a government program, we find the majority (54 percent) of the applicants chose to enter into the poultry value chain, and women were more likely to choose poultry than men. This article finds evidence of more restrictive gender norms in Northern Nigeria states, which lowers women's likelihood of entering into agricultural value chains where the potential for profit may be higher. The gender bias in sectoral choice is also attributed to differences in work experience especially in agricultural activities and in the chosen value chain, as well as in land ownership. Women with more experience in male-dominated agricultural value chains exhibit lower self-efficacy, which could reflect the challenges they face when deviating from social norms to operate within nontraditional value chains.