Stock portfolio excess returns and macroeconomic variables: An empirical analysis of the singapore stock market

Economic agents use information in forming their expectations of future returns from holding stock securities. These securities should be priced to reflect the risks due to economywide fluctuations. The information is updated given the realisations of the factors, which are taken as unobservable but that affect the utility of possibly risk-averse agents. Stock portfolio excess returns (or risk premiums) are analysed empirically within the framework of the Dynamic Factor Model which allows for serial correlation in the factors. Over the sample period 1975:1 to 1986 (January 1975 to June 1986), a single factor can parsimoniously represent ten stock portfolio excess returns. In the framework of the Dymimic model, causality tests for several macroeconomic variables are carried out to ascertain if these variables are correlated with the stock portfolio excess returns. The finding that the excess returns are correlated with the variables that enter the causal equations with a lag is consistent with the conjecture that these variables are used by economic agents in forming their expectations of future treasury security excess returns or risk premiums. Variables possibly related to real activities in the economy are not rejected as causal variables.The research was carried out under the National University of Singapore research grant RP880014. We would like to thank an anonymous referee for his very helpful comments.     

Public Report,Price, and Quality

A monopolist produces a good with two qualities. All consumers have the same valuation of the first quality, but their valuations of the second vary, and are their private information. A public agency can verify qualities, and make credible reports to consumers. In Full Quality Report, the public agency reports both qualities. In Average Quality Report, it reports a weighted average of qualities. The equilibrium prices and qualities in Full Quality Report can be implemented by Average Quality Report. Equilibrium prices and qualities in Average Quality Report give higher consumer surplus than Full Quality Report. Bertrand competition under Average Quality Report yields first‐best prices and qualities.     

A Structural Model for Examining how Destination Image,Perceived Value,and Service Quality Affect Destination Loyalty: a Case Study of Orlando

The primary objectives of this study were to investigate and develop a theoretical relationship among destination image, service quality and perceived value and to empirically test the constructs that are likely to affect tourist satisfaction, which in turn influence revisit intentions and word‐of‐mouth referrals. The results of empirical study indicated that destination image influences service quality and perceived value. In addition, the findings revealed that perceived value has a significant effect on satisfaction and loyalty. These research findings contribute to an extant knowledge in this domain, specifically focused on a family‐oriented destination where it was not studied yet with these relationships. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do small businesses create more jobs? New evidence for Europe

In this paper, we argue why, in our view, the so-called dynamic classification method should be favored when determining the contribution of small businesses towards job creation. First, it is the only method that consistently attributes job creation or loss to the size class in which it actually occurs. In addition, dynamic classification has two other advantages: (1) it is not vulnerable to the so-called regression to the mean bias, and (2) only a small number of aggregated data are required for its application. Using the dynamic classification, we analyze job creation within the different size classes for the 27 Member States of the European Union. Our main findings are as follows. For the EU as a whole, smaller firms contribute on a larger scale towards job creation than do larger firms. Net job creation rates decrease with each firm size class. This pattern occurs in most industries, however, not in all; the manufacturing industry and trade industry show different patterns. At the level of individual countries, the net job creation rate also tends to decrease with each firm size class. However, this relationship is not perfect.     

Identification of Dynamic Models of Rewards Programme

“Frequent‐buyer” rewards programmes are commonly used by companies as a marketing tool to compete for market share. They provide a unique environment for studying consumers’ forward‐looking behaviour. The consumer's problem on accumulating reward points can be formulated as a stationary infinite horizon discrete choice dynamic programming model. We show that the parameters of this model, including the discount factor, are well‐identified. In particular, it is possible to identify state‐dependent discount factors (i.e. discount factors can vary with the number of reward points). We discuss how this identification result is related to the goal‐gradient hypothesis studied in the consumer psychology literature.     

Customer orientation and buyer satisfaction: The malaysian housing market

This study examines the marketing of a high-involvement product, namely, houses in Malaysia, by focusing on the relationship between customer orientation, an important component of the marketing concept, and buyers' satisfaction. Using multi-item scales to measure these two constructs and employing factor analysis and stepwise regression for data analyses, the results and marketing implications drawn suggest the usefulness of these scales for developing well-defined, comprehensive and strategic marketing plans as well as providing a useful framework for formulating effective marketing strategies to enhance customer satisfaction.The first author is attached to the Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, while the second author is the marketing manager of a local private firm.     

Determination of an order-up-to policy in the stochastic economic lot scheduling model

We consider a production–inventory problem with compound renewal item demand. The model consists of stockpoints, one for each item, controlled according to (R,S)-policies and one machine which replenishes them. The replenishment orders are produced with a fixed rate on the machine with significant setup times and costs, which are stochastic and sequence dependent. The time between the release and the production of the replenishment order is called the waiting time. We develop analytical approximations for the first two moments of this waiting time, the order-up-to levels and the average physical inventory levels for all stockpoints, given the target fill rates. These analytical approximations allows for a quick evaluation of the waiting time which is important when optimization of the system is considered.     

Recent Advances in Structural Econometric Modeling: Dynamics, Product Positioning and Entry

In the empirical analysis of consumer markets, recent literature has begun to explore the dynamics in both consumer decisions as well as in firms' marketing policies. Other research has begun to explore the strategic aspects of product line design in a competitive environment. In both cases, structural models have given us new insights into consumer and firm behavior. For example, incorporating consumer and firm dynamics may help explain patterns in our data that are not well-captured by static models. Similarly, the strategic aspects of firm entry and product-positioning may be intrinsically linked to firm conduct and the intensity of competition in a market. Structural analysis of these consumer and firm decisions raise a number of substantial computational challenges. We discuss the computational challenges as well as specific empirical applications. The discussions are based on the session “Structural Models of Strategic Choice” from the 2004 Choice Symposium.