Inference in models with adaptive learning

Identification of structural parameters in models with adaptive learning can be weak, causing standard inference procedures to become unreliable. Learning also induces persistent dynamics, and this makes the distribution of estimators and test statistics non-standard. Valid inference can be conducted using the Anderson-Rubin statistic with appropriate choice of instruments. Application of this method to a typical new Keynesian sticky-price model with perpetual learning demonstrates its usefulness in practice.     

Identification of a loan supply function: A cross-country test for the existence of a bank lending channel

Using the theoretical predictions of the Bernanke–Blinder [Bernanke, B.S., Blinder, A.S., 1988. Is it money or credit or both or neither? Credit, money, and aggregate demand. American Economic Review 78, 435–459] model, we seek to examine the existence of a bank lending channel through the empirical identification of a loan supply function and to assess the impact of differential bank characteristics on banks’ ability to supply loans. To this end, we estimate a loan supply model and test for the restrictions implied by perfect substitutability between loans and bonds in bank portfolios. Estimations are carried out on bank panel data for six OECD countries, the results showing that a bank lending channel is at work in only two of them. Moreover, we find that the relevance of bank characteristics is hardly a decisive factor in the identification of a loan supply function.     

INSTABILITY OF THE U.S. MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION

Abstract. The paper surveys the two major episodes of instability of the U.S. money demand function known respectively as 'the mystery of missing money' and 'the great velocity decline'. It also assesses the recent literature on open economy money demand models and their usefulness in explaining the puzzling behaviour of money demand manifested shortly after the transition to floating exchange rates.     

Polynomial operators and the asymptotic distribution of dynamic multipliers

This paper employs formal manipulations of polynomial operators with matrix coefficients to derive dynamic and long-run multipliers. The same technique is employed to derive the asymptotic distribution of these quantities in a very simple manner. Some recursion formulae are given which make the computation of the covariance matrix of the limiting distribution a relatively simple process. The Klein Model I is used to provide a numerical illustration.     

IDENTIFICATION ISSUES IN LIMITED‐INFORMATION BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL MACROECONOMIC MODELS

The likelihood of the parameters in structural macroeconomic models typically has non‐identification regions over which it is constant. When sufficiently diffuse priors are used, the posterior piles up in such non‐identification regions. Use of informative priors can lead to the opposite, so both can generate spurious inference. We propose priors/posteriors on the structural parameters that are implied by priors/posteriors on the parameters of an embedding reduced‐form model. An example of such a prior is the Jeffreys prior. We use it to conduct Bayesian limited‐information inference on the new Keynesian Phillips curve with a VAR reduced form for US data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A unified framework for analysing price interdependence,innovative activity and exchange rate pass-through

This paper develops an international oligopoly model in which domestic and foreign firms simultaneously choose their price and innovation strategies under the assumption of non-zero conjectural variations in relation to their competitors’ price changes. The model captures the links between the exchange rate, foreign and domestic firms’ prices and investment in process innovation and provides a unified framework for analysing exchange rate pass-through.     

The Interaction between Mortgage Financing and Housing Prices in Greece

Although the close empirical relationship between the evolution of mortgage lending and housing prices is well established in the literature, the direction of causation is less clear from a theoretical standpoint. We apply multivariate cointegration techniques in order to address this issue empirically for the Greek economy. Our results, based on a cointegration relationship that we identify as a mortgage loan demand equation, indicate that housing prices do not adjust to disequilibria in the market for housing loans. This suggests that in the long run the causation does not run from mortgage lending to housing prices. In the short run we find evidence of a contemporaneous bi-directional dependence.

Bargaining and Wage Rigidity in a Matching Model for the US

This paper uses robust econometric methods to assess previous empirical results for the Mortensen and Pissarides ( 1994 ) matching model. Assuming all wages are negotiated each period is inconsistent with the history dependence in US wages, even allowing for heterogeneous match productivities, time to build vacancies and credible bargaining. Flexible wages for job changers, with rigid wages for job stayers, allows the model to capture this history dependence and is not inconsistent with parameter calibrations in the literature. Such wage rigidity affects only the timing of wage payments over the duration of matches; conclusions about other characteristics are unaffected by it.