Auctions with toeholds: An experimental study of company takeovers

We run experiments on English Auctions where the bidders already own a part (toehold) of the good for sale. The theory predicts a very strong (“explosive”) effect of even small toeholds. While asymmetric toeholds do have an effect on bids and revenues in the lab, which gets stronger the larger the asymmetry, it is not nearly as strong as predicted. We explain this by analyzing the flatness of the payoff functions, which leads to large deviations from the equilibrium strategies being relatively costless. This is a general fundamental weakness of this type of explosive equilibria, which makes them fail when human players are involved. Our analysis shows that a levels of reasoning model explains the results better where this equilibrium fails. Moreover, we find that although big toeholds can be effective in a takeover battle, the cost to acquire them might be higher than the strategic benefit they bring.     

Does R&D,human capital and FDI matter for TFP in OECD countries?

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the interplay between research and development (R&D), human capital (HC), foreign direct investment (FDI) and total factor productivity (TFP) in OECD countries. We divide the sample into two sub-groups; the European and the non-European states so as to account for underlying country heterogeneity. The analysis follows a panel data approach over the period 1995–2015, taking into account the modelling on non-stationarity, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics with a panel VAR. Both R&D and HC have a positive effect on TFP, whilst FDI has a positive and significant effect only in the case of non-European countries. Moreover, the contribution of R&D is higher than that of HC and FDI in all cases. Thus, based on these findings, policymakers should design and implement policies to increase resources invested in R&D, with a consistent ongoing spending review, to attract foreign direct investment, especially for the majority of the European and some of the non-European countries and to improve education system on a more productive innovation and research base.     

Profit efficiency in the European Union banking industry: a directional technology distance function approach

We employ the directional technology distance function approach and present estimates of profit efficiency in the 25 European Union (EU) member states over the period 1998–2008. This method decomposes profit efficiency into its technical and allocative components. We investigate potential efficiency differences across the old EU region and the new EU member states, across countries and across banks of different size. Our results indicate a significant level of profit inefficiency for the EU region, which is predominantly attributed to allocative inefficiency. Our findings also suggest that banks operating in the old EU region are, on average, more profit efficient than credit institutions in the new EU member states. Overall, we observe considerable variation of efficiency scores across countries and different patterns in efficiency change over time, as well as a negative relationship between bank size and efficiency.     

Forecasting UK commercial real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach

This paper examines the significance of widely used leading indicators of the UK economy for predicting the cyclical pattern of commercial real estate performance. The analysis uses monthly capital value data for UK industrials, offices and retail from the Investment Property Databank (IPD). Prospective economic indicators are drawn from three sources namely, the series used by the US Conference Board to construct their UK leading indicator and the series deployed by two private organisations, Lombard Street Research and NTC Research, to predict UK economic activity. We first identify turning points in the capital value series adopting techniques employed in the classical business cycle literature. Probit models are then estimated using the leading economic indicators as independent variables and forecast the probability of different phases of capital values, that is, periods of declining and rising capital values. The forecast performance of the models is tested and found to be satisfactory. The predictability of lasting directional changes in property performance represents a useful tool for real estate investment decision-making.     

The Interest Rate Risk Exposure of Financial Intermediaries: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence

The paper surveys current and previous research on financial institutions' interest rate risk exposure. The implications of such exposure are discussed and motivating insights are emphasized. Various theoretical frameworks and models are presented. For each one an overview of the studies and any relationship to each other is provided. In a cross‐industry analysis, other idiosyncratic risk factors are considered and their importance is delineated. A number of empirical relations are established. More specifically, there is an inverse relationship between interest rate changes and common stock returns of financial institutions. The intermediaries' apparent yield sensitivity is mainly attributed to the duration gap inherent in their balance sheet structure. Furthermore, the aforesaid equity sensitivity due to other possible dynamics such as dividend yield, unanticipated inflation and regulatory lags is also considered. Changes in economic regimes have altered volatility in market yields with a subsequent effect, positive or negative, on financial intermediaries' equity returns. The issue of the risk‐return compensation is further analyzed, and findings suggest that the interest rate risk is priced by capital markets. Finally, a few other issues are identified as avenues for future research.     

My five pounds are not as good as yours, so I will spend them

An experimental approach is used to examine how money denomination and the choice between or availability of coins and banknotes may influence consumers’ purchasing behaviour. Evidence shows that for small amounts of money, consumers may prefer a smaller monetary value in banknotes rather than a higher value in coins. Findings also suggest that people carrying coins are more likely to make a purchase of small value than people not carrying coins.     

Optimistic irrationality and overbidding in private value auctions

Bidding one’s value in a second-price, private-value auction is a weakly dominant solution (Vickrey in J Finance 16(1):8–37, 1961), but repeated experimental studies find more overbidding than underbidding. We propose a model of optimistically irrational bidders who understand that there are possible gains and losses associated with higher bids but who may overestimate the additional probability of winning and/or underestimate the potential losses when bidding above value. These bidders may fail to discover the dominant strategy—despite the fact that the dominant strategy only requires rationality from bidders—but respond in a common sense way to out-of-equilibrium outcomes. By varying the monetary consequences of losing money in experimental auctions we observe more overbidding when the cost to losing money is low, and less overbidding when the cost is high. Our findings lend themselves to models in which less than fully rational bidders respond systematically to out-of-equilibrium incentives, and we find that our model better fits the effects of our manipulations than most of the existing models we consider.