Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics

This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income and also the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policymakers in Greece.     

Herding,Faith-Based Investments and the Global Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence From Static and Dynamic Models

The purpose for this article is to explore the existence of herding behavior in the context of Shariah-based ethical investments. To this end the authors have employed the highly liquid constituent stocks of the U.S. Dow Jones Islamic Index for the period January 2007 to December 2014. The methodology encompasses both static and dynamic models that capture potential time-varying patterns or asymmetric behavior of herding. Summarizing the results, the authors document significant antiherding behavior that is robust across different formulations and testing procedures. Most interestingly, they observe an asymmetric behavior of the antiherding phenomenon. Results from the dynamic analysis reveal that antiherding tends to be more intense during turbulent periods. The findings may entail useful implications for investors who wish to diversify their portfolios using faith-based investments.     

A ‘Natural Experiment’ Approach to Contingent Valuation of Private and Public UV Health Risk Reduction Strategies in Low and High Risk Countries

We present the results of a natural experiment to test how variations in exogenous risk levels affect resultant willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reduction. The case study presented considers WTP for reductions in the skin cancer risks associated with exposure to solar UV radiation. A common design contingent valuation survey is conducted in four countries, across which variation in geographical latitude and genetic mix mean that exogenous risks differ substantially. Survey respondents were presented with both a private and public good route for affecting risk reduction. In both cases, results confirm that once adjustment had been made for expected relationships with other covariates (such as income and risk averting behaviour), valuation responses for both goods conformed to expectations with the ordering of values across countries reflecting the ordering of scientifically established health risks. This suggests that links between values and objective health risks may be observed within such situations and provides a justification for continuing research into more natural representations of risk and risk reductions in order to yield consistent and robust measures of associated values.     

All work and no … pay? Unpaid overtime in Greece: determining factors and theoretical explanations

During the last decades an increase of unpaid overtime has been observed combined with the inversion of the working time decreasing trend. This article analyses the data from the Labour Force Survey to estimate the determinants of unpaid overtime in Greece and uses the results to test various theoretical explanations.     

Analysing the Agricultural Costs and Non‐market Benefits of Implementing the Water Framework Directive

Implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) represents a fundamental change in the management of water in Europe with a requirement that member states ensure ‘good ecological status’ for all water bodies by 2015. Agriculture is expected to bear a major share of WFD implementation costs as it is compelled to reduce the emission of diffuse water pollutants. The research outlined here comprises interdisciplinary modelling of agricultural land use, hydrology and consequent water quality effects to consider both agricultural costs and the non‐market recreational use (and potentially non‐use) values that implementation of the Directive may generate. A theme throughout the research is the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits of WFD implementation, which is addressed through the use of GIS techniques in the modelling of agricultural land use, the integration of land use and hydrological models, and the estimation, aggregation and transfer of the economic value of the benefits.     

Prestigious stock exchanges: A network analysis of international financial centers

In this paper, we use methods from social network analysis to assess the relative importance of financial centers around the world. Using data from virtually the entire universe of global equity activity, we present complete rankings for 45 separate locations for the period 1990–2006. Our analysis constructs a network measure of prestige based on their ability to attract global IPOs. U.S. exchanges are effectively the unique hosts for cross-border equity activity from many other locations. Moreover, they are the destination of choice for most companies coming from locations with highly prestigious exchanges. We also document the emergence of several competing stock exchanges from developed and emerging market economies. The ascent of these stock markets, however, might reflect improved conditions in a growing global market rather than a decline in the competitiveness of U.S. exchanges.     

The metamorphosis of development economics

The scientific paradigm of Development Economics is not dead nor is it declining in importance. Instead, it has desynthesized into more than 30 analytical and specialized subparadigms which deal with the complex economic phenomena in LDCs. The great number of sub-disciplines of Development Economics is a verification of the dynamic evolution of the discipline and shows its trend towards increased specialization which seems to be the true index of the scientific progress of the subject. For those who complain that “the current output of new development theories…is smaller” (W. A. Lewis), we remind them that Development Economics is a discipline which has more of a praxeological-concrete orientation than a theoretical-abstract one. It seems that the world today needs more the exercise of development praxeology by the activist than the abstract theorizing of the purists. However, the study and empirical research of development phenomena in the context of the 30 or more specialized sub-disciplines offers an opportunity for improving the quality of our knowledge on these phenomena by the recurrent validation and consolidation of development theories.     

Displacement risk and asset returns

We study asset-pricing implications of innovation in a general-equilibrium overlapping-generations economy. Innovation increases the competitive pressure on existing firms and workers, reducing the profits of existing firms and eroding the human capital of older workers. Due to the lack of inter-generational risk sharing, innovation creates a systematic risk factor, which we call “displacement risk.” This risk helps explain several empirical patterns, including the existence of the growth-value factor in returns, the value premium, and the high equity premium. We assess the magnitude of displacement risk using estimates of inter-cohort consumption differences across households and find support for the model.