Path Dependence in Russian Policy Making: Constraints on Putin's Economic Choice

A decade after the introduction of economic transition in Eastern Europe it was starting to become clear that initial beliefs in one-size-fits-all reforms had been unfounded. While some countries had made the grade, others- notably so Russia- had failed to live up to expectations. This article explores the Russian roots of that failure, arguing that the Russian reformers failed to take into account a deeply rooted Russian path dependence. By focusing narrowly on changes in the formal rules of the game, they neglected pressing needs for broader institutional change, including a credible commitment by the Russian government to impartially enforcing a rules-based system. It is argued that the legacy left for Vladimir Putin in important respects is even more dire than that left by Gorbachev for the El'tsin team.     

Rigor in Economics means Pluralism

Abstract

The two books under review could not be more different in terms of their main subject matter and writing style, but their central message is exactly the same: only a pluralist economics is scientifically rigorous and explanatorily honest and fruitful. Both books underpin this important point in their own ways. While Fullbrook draws on a wide range of history of thought in economics, philosophy and the sciences, his epistemological argument is relatively easy to grasp and full of catch phrases. Marchionatti and Cedrini on the other hand review the century long methodological dispute between economists and economic anthropologists. Their treatment of these debates is very detailed. So, it can be a bit of a struggle at times to follow the intricacies of the defensive arguments used by anthropologists in their battles against imperial attacks by economists. However, by providing an outline of the basic arguments at the start and a concluding summary at the end of most of their chapters the authors make these debates very comprehensive while offering a very thorough historical comparative overview of economic imperialism and the defences of its anthropological opponents. In critiquing its philosophical foundation, Fullbrook argues convincingly that the mainstream narrative in economics is ideologically biased and conceptually too narrow to investigate economic behaviour based on social bonds, inter-subjectivity and real freedom. To allow for such analysis, he concludes, we will need to move towards true pluralism of methods in economics.     

Optimal Differentiation of International Environmental Taxes in the Presence of National Labor Market Distortions

We explore the implication of the `doubledividend' debate for international environmentaltaxes. In our scenario, small open economies withdifferent labor market distortions follow a commonenvironmental policy and use national environmentaltax revenues to finance labor tax cuts. Since thedouble dividend hypothesis does not hold, a high labortax implies a low environmental tax relative to othercountries. The optimal differentiation ofinternational environmental taxes is proven to be afunction of the national labor tax rates and theuncompensated elasticities of labor supply.     

Children’s Snacks,their Ads and Consumer Sovereignty

Abstract

The concept of sovereign consumer preferences is challenged from three sides: child consumers, unhealthy food and advertising. The two theoretical concepts of merit goods and libertarian paternalism are implemented in order to classify situations in which full consumer sovereignty does not apply. An empirical analysis of ads for children’s snacks reveals the libertarian paternalist perspective as helpful for understanding the demand for and justification of ‘soft’ governmental intervention in the case of the advertised snacks, whilst the ads for these snacks may well be demerit goods. The banning or heavy taxation of these ads is therefore advocated.     

Nonparametric identification in nonseparable panel data models with generalized fixed effects

This paper extends the familiar notion of fixed effects to nonlinear structures with infinite-dimensional unobservables, like preferences. The main result is that a generalized version of differencing identifies local average responses (LARs) in nonseparable structures. In contrast to existing results, this does not require either substantial restrictions on functional form or independence between the persistent unobservables and the explanatory variables of interest, and it requires only two time periods. On the other hand, the results are confined to the subpopulation of “stayers” (Chamberlain, 1982), i.e., the population for which the explanatory variables do not change over time. We extend the basic framework to include time trends and dynamics in the explanatory variables, and we show how distributional effects as well as average partial effects are identified. Our approach also allows endogeneity in the transitory unobservables. Furthermore, we show that this new identification principle can be applied to well-known objects like the slope coefficient in the semiparametric panel data binary choice model with fixed effects. Finally, we suggest estimators for the local average response and average partial effect, and we analyze their large- and finite-sample behavior.     

Financial crisis risk,ECB “non-standard” measures,and the external value of the euro

I study the impact of banking and sovereign debt crisis risk of EMU member states on the external value of the euro. Using a regime switching model, I find that the external value of the euro has significantly responded to financial crisis risk during the period of November 2008–November 2011, while no significant effect is found for the period from February 2006 to October 2008. This suggests that the monetary expansion and interest rate cuts associated with the ECB's “non-standard” measures may have reduced the external value of the euro.     

Relative deprivation and labour conflict during Spain’s industrialization: the Bilbao estuary, 1914–1936

What drove social conflict in Spain’s industrial areas in the period before the Spanish Civil War? This paper is concerned with contrasting the determinants of working-class conflict in northern Spain at the beginning of the twentieth century. Our hypothesis is that the key determinant of conflicts in emerging industrial areas during the interwar period was the struggle to obtain satisfactory family income in a context of combined high price fluctuation, unemployment and economic boom and bust. We suggest two new ways to decipher how economic factors interact with labour conflict. We introduce the family as the relevant income unit when considering wage struggles and relative deprivation. And secondly, we study the reactions to short-term variations of income on families by using monthly rather than quarterly or annual data.     

Optimal multilateral contracts

Summary The purpose of this paper is to derive the structure of optimal multilateral contracts in a costly state verification model with multiple agents who may be risk averse and need not be identical. We consider two different verification technology specifications. When the verification technology is deterministic, we show that the optimal contract is a multilateral debt contract in the sense that the monitoring set is a lower interval. When the verification technology is stochastic, we show that transfers and monitoring probabilities are decreasing functions of wealth. The key economic problem in this environment is that optimal contracts areinterdependent. We are able to resolve this interdependency problem by using abstract measure theoretic tools.We wish to thank Mark Feldman, Wayne Shafer and Nicholas Yannelis for useful comments. We also gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation (SES 89-09242).     

Small firms in the SSBF

This paper uses Survey of Small Business Finance data to better understand how the owners of small firms use decisions about legal organization, firm size, capital structure, and owner investment in the firm to manage firm risk. The main findings are: Firms with unlimited liability are smaller, both when measured by assets and number of employees, and tend to be less leveraged than those whose owners limit personal exposure to firm liabilities. Entrepreneurs tend to hold largely undiversified positions by investing heavily in their firms, and this does not differ appreciably by legal organization. The percentage of firms with limited liability has remained virtually constant through time, although within this group there is a trend toward hybrid legal organizations with beneficial tax treatment. We estimate return on assets and find that entrepreneurship is a very risky undertaking, with high upside gain. The possibility of high future returns helps explain the coexistence of a large percentage of firms with negative equity and low default rates. The shape of the return distribution and limited liability interact; the option to declare bankruptcy shields owners from personal loss in the lower tail of the distribution while preserving the potential for significant firm returns in the upper tail.     

Anmerkungen zum Target2-Streit

Seit einigen Monaten wird in der Fachliteratur und den Medien eine teils heftige Diskussion um die sogenannten Target2-Salden geführt. Vordergründig geht es dabei um ein Verrechnungssystem der Notenbanken der Eurozone. Laut Hans-Werner Sinn, der die Debatte angesto?en hat, haben die in diesem System aufgelaufenen Salden den Charakter eines milliardenschweren Rettungsschirms, an dessen Entstehung kein Parlament mitgewirkt hat.