Predicting uncertainty: the impact of risk measurement on value of real estate portfolios

This paper presents a theoretical framework for an assessment and valuation of real estate assets and funds, based on modern stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) models, which accurately captures the nature of related risks. We show that an accurate risk-adjusted valuation is particularly difficult for real estate investments, due to practical limits to diversification and difficulties in approximating total risk with systematic risk. We develop a risk assessment framework that includes idiosyncratic risk but focuses on insolvency risk related to a specific cash flow profile. We also present a methodology of rating this risk, using forecasts and simulations. We conclude that simulation techniques are a valuable tool in property risk assessment. Further, we show that cost of capital and value of assets depend on diversification of specific risks, investors can achieve in their portfolios.     

Can tourism be part of the decarbonized global economy? The costs and risks of alternate carbon reduction policy pathways

Global leaders agree on the need to substantially decarbonize the global economy by 2050. This paper compares potential costs associated with different policy pathways to achieve tourism sector emission reduction ambitions (?50% by 2035) and transform the sector to be part of the mid-century decarbonized economy (?70% by 2050). Investment in emissions abatement within the tourism sector, combined with strategic external carbon offsets, was found to be approximately 5% more cost effective over the period 2015–2050 than exclusive reliance on offsetting. The cost to achieve the ?50% target through abatement and strategic offsetting, while significant, represents less than 0.1% of the estimated global tourism economy in 2020 and 3.6% in 2050. Distributed equally among all tourists (international and domestic), the cost of a low-carbon tourism sector is estimated at US$11 per trip, equivalent to many current travel fees or taxes. Exclusive reliance on offsetting would expose the sector to extensive and continued carbon liability costs beyond mid-century and could be perceived as climate inaction, increasing reputational risks and the potential for less efficient regulatory interventions that could hinder sustainable tourism development. Effective tourism sector leadership is needed to develop a strategic tourism policy framework and emission measurement and reporting system.     

Disentangling location-based advertising: the effects of location congruency and medium type on consumers' ad attention and brand choice

Research on location-based advertising (LBA) suggests that the merits of LBA lie in the fact that consumers can be targeted with location-congruent ads on their personal mobile devices. However, LBA consists of two underlying constructs: a mobile (vs. point-of-sales) advertising medium and location congruency (vs. location incongruency). This study aims to disentangle these underlying constructs by showing that they differentially affect the efficacy of an ad. Using a virtual reality lab experiment, this study shows that location-congruent ads result in increased choice for the target brand as compared to location-incongruent ads, independent of medium type. However, in location-incongruent situations, mobile ads attracted more attention than point-of-sales display ads. The advantages of LBA thus do not seem to emanate from medium type, but rather from the congruency between the ad and product location. When the ad is received at a different location than the product, the mobile medium is able to enhance consumers' ad attention.     

An examination of mobile app usage and the user’s life satisfaction

Increased engagement with mobile apps is an emerging trend with people today. Mobile devices have become so personalized that many people consider their mobile device as an extension of themselves. Research has suggested that one driving factor in a person’s adoption of mobile apps is the pursuit of happiness. However, there is little research regarding the influence of apps on a person’s well-being. The purpose of this paper was to examine mobile app usage among college students and the relationship between app usage and one’s satisfaction with life. Findings suggest that there is a correlation between mobile app usage and a person’s level of satisfaction with life. Gender differences in app usage were also found.     

Non-uniformity of job-matching in a transition economy – A nonparametric analysis for the Czech Republic

This study explores the properties and development of the matching technology in the Czech Republic during the transition to a market economy. Nonparametric additive modelling allows us to assess flexible functional forms, which comprise for instance CES and trans-log specifications. This enables us to evaluate the matching process locally for each combination of unemployment and vacancies rather than being restricted to global coefficients. Special interest is devoted to analysis and economic determinants of regional variation in the returns to scale of the matching function. Non-linearities are found in the partial adjustment process of unemployment outflows, and a negative coefficient on vacancies in some years. Moreover, increasing returns to scale in job-matching are found locally. Returns to scale are found to be negatively correlated to the share in employment in services and to outmigration, positively correlated to the employment share in industry, the unemployment rate and various measures of active labour market policies.     

Elektro-Mobilität wird deutlich überschätzt

E-mobility technology is commonly expected to fully meet future mobility demands. However, during the next two or three decades, the number of vehicles powered by an internal combustion engine (ICE) will not only remain high but will probably increase in absolute numbers. Oil as the dominant energy source for transportation purposes is limited, and it is expected that e-mobility will not be able to substitute the demand for ICE vehicles. Renewable liquid energy sources will be needed to ensure future mobility.     

Human error in high hazard systems: Do we treat the problem in an appropriate way?

This article addresses the problem of human error within a technical environment. A model of a human-machine interface is presented to illustrate the work situation in an open perspective. The term human error is defined and briefly discussed. A general framework for controlling human error is presented with proactive and reactive approaches. Some well-known methods of human reliability assessment are discussed and the general limitations of the methods are elaborated. The reactive approaches are compared with proactive approaches, and the term 'safety culture' is elucidated. The importance of high reliability organizations to serve as model companies for other organizations is briefly discussed.