Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies

Given the growing need for managing financial risk, risk predictionplays an increasing role in banking and finance. In this studywe compare the out-of-sample performance of existing methodsand some new models for predicting value-at-risk (VaR) in aunivariate context. Using more than 30 years of the daily returndata on the NASDAQ Composite Index, we find that most approachesperform inadequately, although several models are acceptableunder current regulatory assessment rules for model adequacy.A hybrid method, combining a heavy-tailed generalized autoregressiveconditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) filter with an extremevalue theory-based approach, performs best overall, closelyfollowed by a variant on a filtered historical simulation, anda new model based on heteroskedastic mixture distributions.Conditional autoregressive VaR (CAViaR) models perform inadequately,though an extension to a particular CAViaR model is shown tooutperform the others.     

Risk-sharing networks and insurance against illness

Most risk-sharing tests on developing country data are conducted at the level of the village; generally, the full risk-sharing hypothesis is rejected. This paper uses detailed data on all insurance networks within a village in Tanzania; networks are not clustered but largely overlapping. We test whether full risk-sharing occurs within these networks. While village level full-insurance cannot be rejected for food consumption, we find evidence consistent with at least partial insurance of non-food consumption via networks.     

Auf verschiedenen Meeren Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Publizistik- und Kommunikationswissenschaft, 4.–6. Mai 2005 in Hamburg

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Sequential communication with ex post participation constraints

This paper examines an informed principal-agent game with ex post participation constraints for the agent. It shows that the players do not lose by communicating in turn among themselves rather than simultaneously if and only if the principal communicates first. It then considers every Bayesian incentive compatible allocation rules that assign non-negative payoffs for one player in a bilateral asymmetric information framework. It provides necessary and sufficient conditions for sequential communication to be as efficient as simultaneous communication in implementing these allocation rules when the player with unbounded payoffs moves first.     

The Sustainability Balanced Scorecard – linking sustainability management to business strategy

The Balanced Scorecard of Kaplan and Norton is a management tool that supports the successful implementation of corporate strategies. It has been discussed and considered widely in both practice and research. By linking operational and non‐financial corporate activities with causal chains to the firm's long‐term strategy, the Balanced Scorecard supports the alignment and management of all corporate activities according to their strategic relevance. The Balanced Scorecard makes it possible to take into account non‐monetary strategic success factors that significantly impact the economic success of a business. The Balanced Scorecard is thus a promising starting‐point to also incorporate environmental and social aspects into the main management system of a firm. Sustainability management with the Balanced Scorecard helps to overcome the shortcomings of conventional approaches to environmental and social management systems by integrating the three pillars of sustainability into a single and overarching strategic management tool. After a brief discussion of the different possible forms of a Sustainability Balanced Scorecard the article takes a closer look at the process and steps of formulating a Sustainability Balanced Scorecard for a business unit. Before doing so, the basic conventional approach of the Balanced Scorecard and its suitability for sustainability management will be outlined in brief. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Magnus-Sebastian Kutz: Public Relations oder Propaganda? Die ?ffentlichkeitsarbeit der US-Administration zum Krieg gegen den Irak 2003

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